HankGoldberg's Super Bowl Pick\Analysis

skillrules

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I was talking with Hank Stram about the matchup, and his view is that the Raiders are superior at every offensive position to Tampa Bay.

Obviously, it's the Bucs' defense that will concern the Raiders offense. And while they play a cover-2, their linebackers are fast enough to cover some of Oakland's wide receivers.

But, it's the Raiderss offensive line that keeps Rich Gannon in business. How many quarterbacks have the luxury of time to pump-fake once or twice before zeroing in on his target. That will be the difference.

The Raiders' line wear out defenders trying to get to Gannon, and when the defense is truly weary in the fourth quarter, they unleash the running game. Aside from a four-game losing streak before midseason, the Raiders had the best team in football. Their wins at home were by fourteen or more points.

They should feel at home Sunday with a crowd that will be very much in their favor. And they played their last four games at home with an off-week thrown in. San Diego is an easy trip for them. The Bucs had to travel home from Philadelphia, then turn around the next day and travel across the country.

Among the propositions, the best play is in penalties -- take the Raiders over-7?. They have averaged 11 in two playoff games and 8? during the regular season.

Also, take over-1? fumbles lost by both teams, and Charlie Garner over-5? receptions (he had 91 during the season).

Early pick: Raiders, minus-4
 

lostinamerica

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I know I'm liking two of those props: Raiders over 7' penalties and both teams over 1' fumbles lost.

I'm not sure I agree that there will be any early or late advantages to be gained from the stadium crowd, or that Oakland will still look fresher six days after Monday, but quite an excellent analysis. Thanks, skillrules.

GL
 

skillrules

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Yeah, Im not betting on Garner catching 6 passes, but it will be a miracle if the Raiders dont have at least 8 penalties. The only problem is when penalties get declined.
 
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