Arizona State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
Anointing sophomore Rudy Carpenter the starter over incumbent Sam Keller, who subsequently transferred to Nebraska, was a controversial move that failed to pay dividends for lame-duck head coach Dirk Koetter. Regardless, the Sun Devils must rely on Carpenter to keep pace with Hawaii in what promises to be a track meet of a football game. Carpenter shows the ability to distribute the ball accurately in Koetter's vertical passing scheme when he has time to make reads and follow through on his throws from the pocket. However, Carpenter also has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long and his offensive line does a miserable job of protecting him, which is evidenced in the 33 sacks allowed this season (104th nationally). The other problem for Arizona State is its lack of playmakers at the wide receiver position. TE Zach Miller leads the team with 49 receptions and RB Ryan Torain is second with 16 catches. The team's top two receivers, Mike Jones and Chris McGaha, have accounted for 15 catches a piece, which is an embarrassing lack of production in this type of offensive scheme.
Arizona State vs. Hawaii
vs.
When: Dec. 24, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Honolulu, Hawaii
Ironically, Koetter's typically high-flying Sun Devil offense has been more effective running the football this season. Torain is a powerful back averaging 5.2 yards on 205 carries, while Keegan Herring provides more speed as a change-of-pace runner with an average of 5.9 yards on 91 carries. Hawaii's defense has made huge strides under second-year coordinator Jerry Glanville but it still surrenders 24.1 points per contest. The goal for the Warriors is to get the ball back to their offense as quickly as possible, which explains the boom-or-bust philosophy. The unit employs a 3-4 base alignment with 302-pound Michael Lafaele anchoring the middle at nose tackle. MAC LB Adam Leonard and Buck LB Solomon Elimimian benefit from the space Lafaele occupies, as they have combined for 189 total tackles on the season. Carpenter will make poor decisions when pressured -- he has thrown 14 interceptions on the season. With that in mind, expect the Warriors to take a more aggressive approach from a pass-rush standpoint. Melila Purcell (7? sacks) provides a lot of pressure from his left end position but look for Glanville to turn up the heat with a heavy emphasis on the blitz, especially with Leonard and WLB Micah Lau. Glanville loves playing man-to-man coverage on the perimeter, as it frees up his safeties to be more aggressive in run support and occasionally in the blitz package. If CBs Gerard Lewis and Myron Newberry hold up one-on-one vs. Jones and McGaha, it could prove to be a long afternoon for Carpenter and the Sun Devil passing attack.
Hawaii Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Colt Brennan is the most talented quarterback that coach June Jones has had to work with during his tenure at Hawaii. Brennan displays a strong arm, good timing and exceptional accuracy as the triggerman of Jones' high-flying passing attack. Hawaii's offensive line, anchored by senior center Samson Satele, does an outstanding job in pass protection. When given ample time to throw, Brennan does a remarkable job of distributing the ball to his vast array of potent wide outs, including Davone Bess, Jason Rivers, Ross Dickerson and Ian Sample. Bess is the leading receiver with 1,155 yards and 14 touchdowns on 91 catches this season. However, Brennan does not zero in on Bess exclusively, as Rivers, Dickerson and Sample each has more than 50 receptions on the season. RB Nate Ilaoa provides some balance on the ground thanks to his impressive combination of size and speed. It also should be noted that Ilaoa is one of the premier pass-catching running backs in the nation with 57 receptions on the season.
The only chance Arizona State has of slowing down the Hawaii attack is to generate a consistent pass rush from its front four. DE Dexter Davis (five sacks) and DT Michael Marquardt (3? sacks ) have done a good job in that department but they will need more help from DE Kyle Caldwell and DT Jordan Hill, who have combined for only four sacks on the season. If defensive coordinator Bill Miller is forced to start blitzing linebackers in order to get more pressure, Brennan will pick the Sun Devil secondary apart with quick, precise throws to receivers and running backs underneath. OLB Derron Ware should do a good job of covering Ilaoa one-on-one out of the backfield but the Sun Devil secondary does not possess the depth or speed to match up long in coverage vs. Hawaii's four-receiver sets. DSs Josh Barrett and Zach Catanese do a good job in run-support but they might not see the field much, as Miller may need to use dime-personnel with his best five cover corners on the field at the same time.
Special Teams
The Sun Devils own a distinct advantage on special teams in this game. For starters, they rank fifth nationally in kickoff returns thanks to the explosive tandem of Kyle Williams and Rudy Burgess. Williams also does an adequate job returning punts. PK Jesse Ainsworth is reliable and has connected on 13-of-18 field goal attempts this season, including a long of 47 yards. PT Jonathan Johnson is averaging a solid 40.9 yards per attempt.
Hawaii, on the other hand, ranks in the bottom half of the nation in both kickoff and punt return averages this season. Bess handles most of the punt returns, while Ross Dickerson and Malcolm Lane share the duties on kickoff returns. Hawaii PK Dan Kelly is the highlight of the special teams' units. He has nailed 11-of-14 field goal attempts, including a long of 52 yards. One of Lane's misses was a block and another was from beyond 50 yards. The Warriors rarely punt but PT Kurt Milne is averaging 37.6 yards on 16 attempts.
Matchups
? Hawaii RB Nate Ilaoa vs. Arizona State MLB Beau Manutai and WLB Derron Ware
? Hawaii WR Davone Bess vs. Arizona State CB Rudy Burgess
? Arizona State TE Zach Miller vs. Hawaii SS Jacob Patek
Scouts' Edge
The Sun Devil players will undoubtedly give a great effort in Koetter's final game as their head coach but that won't be enough to pull off the upset. As usual, Hawaii will exploit home field advantage in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. Points will be easy to come by for both teams but more so for the Warriors. Simply put; Brennan is a better quarterback than Carpenter and he has far superior weapons to work with in what promises to be a relatively lopsided shootout.
Prediction: Warriors 48, Sun Devils 33
Anointing sophomore Rudy Carpenter the starter over incumbent Sam Keller, who subsequently transferred to Nebraska, was a controversial move that failed to pay dividends for lame-duck head coach Dirk Koetter. Regardless, the Sun Devils must rely on Carpenter to keep pace with Hawaii in what promises to be a track meet of a football game. Carpenter shows the ability to distribute the ball accurately in Koetter's vertical passing scheme when he has time to make reads and follow through on his throws from the pocket. However, Carpenter also has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long and his offensive line does a miserable job of protecting him, which is evidenced in the 33 sacks allowed this season (104th nationally). The other problem for Arizona State is its lack of playmakers at the wide receiver position. TE Zach Miller leads the team with 49 receptions and RB Ryan Torain is second with 16 catches. The team's top two receivers, Mike Jones and Chris McGaha, have accounted for 15 catches a piece, which is an embarrassing lack of production in this type of offensive scheme.
Arizona State vs. Hawaii
vs.
When: Dec. 24, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Honolulu, Hawaii
Ironically, Koetter's typically high-flying Sun Devil offense has been more effective running the football this season. Torain is a powerful back averaging 5.2 yards on 205 carries, while Keegan Herring provides more speed as a change-of-pace runner with an average of 5.9 yards on 91 carries. Hawaii's defense has made huge strides under second-year coordinator Jerry Glanville but it still surrenders 24.1 points per contest. The goal for the Warriors is to get the ball back to their offense as quickly as possible, which explains the boom-or-bust philosophy. The unit employs a 3-4 base alignment with 302-pound Michael Lafaele anchoring the middle at nose tackle. MAC LB Adam Leonard and Buck LB Solomon Elimimian benefit from the space Lafaele occupies, as they have combined for 189 total tackles on the season. Carpenter will make poor decisions when pressured -- he has thrown 14 interceptions on the season. With that in mind, expect the Warriors to take a more aggressive approach from a pass-rush standpoint. Melila Purcell (7? sacks) provides a lot of pressure from his left end position but look for Glanville to turn up the heat with a heavy emphasis on the blitz, especially with Leonard and WLB Micah Lau. Glanville loves playing man-to-man coverage on the perimeter, as it frees up his safeties to be more aggressive in run support and occasionally in the blitz package. If CBs Gerard Lewis and Myron Newberry hold up one-on-one vs. Jones and McGaha, it could prove to be a long afternoon for Carpenter and the Sun Devil passing attack.
Hawaii Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Colt Brennan is the most talented quarterback that coach June Jones has had to work with during his tenure at Hawaii. Brennan displays a strong arm, good timing and exceptional accuracy as the triggerman of Jones' high-flying passing attack. Hawaii's offensive line, anchored by senior center Samson Satele, does an outstanding job in pass protection. When given ample time to throw, Brennan does a remarkable job of distributing the ball to his vast array of potent wide outs, including Davone Bess, Jason Rivers, Ross Dickerson and Ian Sample. Bess is the leading receiver with 1,155 yards and 14 touchdowns on 91 catches this season. However, Brennan does not zero in on Bess exclusively, as Rivers, Dickerson and Sample each has more than 50 receptions on the season. RB Nate Ilaoa provides some balance on the ground thanks to his impressive combination of size and speed. It also should be noted that Ilaoa is one of the premier pass-catching running backs in the nation with 57 receptions on the season.
The only chance Arizona State has of slowing down the Hawaii attack is to generate a consistent pass rush from its front four. DE Dexter Davis (five sacks) and DT Michael Marquardt (3? sacks ) have done a good job in that department but they will need more help from DE Kyle Caldwell and DT Jordan Hill, who have combined for only four sacks on the season. If defensive coordinator Bill Miller is forced to start blitzing linebackers in order to get more pressure, Brennan will pick the Sun Devil secondary apart with quick, precise throws to receivers and running backs underneath. OLB Derron Ware should do a good job of covering Ilaoa one-on-one out of the backfield but the Sun Devil secondary does not possess the depth or speed to match up long in coverage vs. Hawaii's four-receiver sets. DSs Josh Barrett and Zach Catanese do a good job in run-support but they might not see the field much, as Miller may need to use dime-personnel with his best five cover corners on the field at the same time.
Special Teams
The Sun Devils own a distinct advantage on special teams in this game. For starters, they rank fifth nationally in kickoff returns thanks to the explosive tandem of Kyle Williams and Rudy Burgess. Williams also does an adequate job returning punts. PK Jesse Ainsworth is reliable and has connected on 13-of-18 field goal attempts this season, including a long of 47 yards. PT Jonathan Johnson is averaging a solid 40.9 yards per attempt.
Hawaii, on the other hand, ranks in the bottom half of the nation in both kickoff and punt return averages this season. Bess handles most of the punt returns, while Ross Dickerson and Malcolm Lane share the duties on kickoff returns. Hawaii PK Dan Kelly is the highlight of the special teams' units. He has nailed 11-of-14 field goal attempts, including a long of 52 yards. One of Lane's misses was a block and another was from beyond 50 yards. The Warriors rarely punt but PT Kurt Milne is averaging 37.6 yards on 16 attempts.
Matchups
? Hawaii RB Nate Ilaoa vs. Arizona State MLB Beau Manutai and WLB Derron Ware
? Hawaii WR Davone Bess vs. Arizona State CB Rudy Burgess
? Arizona State TE Zach Miller vs. Hawaii SS Jacob Patek
Scouts' Edge
The Sun Devil players will undoubtedly give a great effort in Koetter's final game as their head coach but that won't be enough to pull off the upset. As usual, Hawaii will exploit home field advantage in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. Points will be easy to come by for both teams but more so for the Warriors. Simply put; Brennan is a better quarterback than Carpenter and he has far superior weapons to work with in what promises to be a relatively lopsided shootout.
Prediction: Warriors 48, Sun Devils 33
