Hedge Play tonight???

[taoist]

Nolan, if you're around, wondered if you could comment on this one, as I think it fits all of the criteria for your patented "Hedge Plays." Total is o/u 12.5 at most places....


Cincy +120 (SIA)
Rockies (-1') +146 (Pinn)


...any comments? I've seen a few here in Cincy, but...does anyone think that Colorado will take this one by only 1 run???


edit: Only down side that I see right off the bat is giving the 1' with the Rocks at home...as they'll get the last at bat. Personally, I (like a few others here) think that Cincy takes this one...but am looking for comments regarding this hedge.... Anyone think that this one goes way under the total? Nick, Fletch, Raymond, bohawk, gsp, Jack....anyone want to chime in, feel free....

 

[SixFive]

That's what I call a Polish middle; ie u could lose both bets. If u like the Reds tonight, then play that dog. I like them too. GL!

 

[taoist]

Six-Five, LOL!!! ...i was just looking for Nolan's article on this strategy in his free pages, but couldn't find it.... The premise is that games with high totals over 11.5 rarely end up with the fav winning by a single run.... Just wondering if anyone thought this one would end up a low scoring, one-run affair.... If I can dig up Nolan's article, I'll post it...or if anyone else can find it please post it here for those that haven't seen it. Thanks.

 

[SixFive]

Taoist, that's the definition of a Polish middle. Hope u laid off it. When I try to get cute with plays, I get an end result similar to that, lol.

 

[taoist]

Six-Five, I ended up scratching it and didn't even play Cincy, but I wish I could dig up those statistics from Nolan.... This thing started out the season something like 26-0, when the game fell within the criteria. Anyway, good thing I stayed away last night....


"Polish Middle" ...still LOL over that one!!!


p.s. Nolan, if you're around today and read through this thread, could you please post those stats on this theory or at least point me in the right direction.... I looked on your page, but didn't see them. Thanks.

 

[taoist]

Looks like an identical situation tonight.... Same total (12.5), same teams, same "mile-high" stadium....

Cincy +135 (WSEX)
Rockies (-1') +135 (the greek)


CIN: Hamilton (3-6, 5.21)
COL: Jennings (11-5, 4.49)


Well, yesterday the game went over the total, albeit by the most narrow of margins. However, the hedge didn't play out as the rockies bp allowed cincy to score 5 runs in the top of the ninth.... Well, here we are 24 hours later and presented with the same situation...same total, same teams and same stadium....any comments guys? ...anyone think that this one goes way under the posted total or ends up another one run affair?

Nolan, if you happen to peruse this thread, please let me know where I might find the data you compiled regarding this angle/system. Thanks.


p.s. Six-Five, I know, I know.... "Polish Middle" LMAO!!!

 

[TheShrimp]

In brief, all you're doing with that play is laying about 6-1 that the favorite doesn't win by 1 run (usually betting $200 to win $35 or so).

Yes, you can lose the bet, but you can lose every bet you make. IIRC Nolan's stats showed (for a while) that it had good value. With a home team, you get scared giving the 1.5 but you get a lot more value out of it.

If you did it in the cleveland game last night (10.5 total) you would have won.