So every year we have a big calcutta with the 8 remaining teams in the playoffs. Winner of the superbowl gets 2/3rds the pot and loser gets 1/3rd the pot. Because of this you really just need to win your first game (depending on good of value you get on your buys) to hedge the 2nd game and make money. So here is what I own, and my payouts:
SF in for $317, if lose SB gross $1853, if win SB gross $3707
Ravens in for $705, if lose SB gross $1649, if win SB gross $3297
So I am really debating couple options... Not hedge and let it ride (figure I have 28% chance both teams lose and 18% chance both win)... put 1000 to win 1887 on NE and NY moneyline parlay... or because I have the most "value" in SF putting $1500 on NY moneyline to win $1800 and let Baltimore ride. Another reason for that is I can watch the Baltimore game and if they win I dont HAVE to hedge at all.
The other thing is I could actually bet more on my hedges then the numbers I threw out since I have more "power" if my team wins. For example say I hedge $1500 on NY, but SF wins I still have another $1850 I can hedge in the SB game. So in reality I could put $2500 on NY moneyline (since I think SF will be the dog in the SB I cant do the whole $1850 since will be some slippage in SB moneyline)
Thoughts? I am really thinking just roll with what I got, but all hedging thoughts I would appreciate
SF in for $317, if lose SB gross $1853, if win SB gross $3707
Ravens in for $705, if lose SB gross $1649, if win SB gross $3297
So I am really debating couple options... Not hedge and let it ride (figure I have 28% chance both teams lose and 18% chance both win)... put 1000 to win 1887 on NE and NY moneyline parlay... or because I have the most "value" in SF putting $1500 on NY moneyline to win $1800 and let Baltimore ride. Another reason for that is I can watch the Baltimore game and if they win I dont HAVE to hedge at all.
The other thing is I could actually bet more on my hedges then the numbers I threw out since I have more "power" if my team wins. For example say I hedge $1500 on NY, but SF wins I still have another $1850 I can hedge in the SB game. So in reality I could put $2500 on NY moneyline (since I think SF will be the dog in the SB I cant do the whole $1850 since will be some slippage in SB moneyline)
Thoughts? I am really thinking just roll with what I got, but all hedging thoughts I would appreciate
