Hedging thoughts. Need help

[Slumdog]

Lots of room here. Any thoughts on hedging ?
20 k on rams +3 and if that loses kc ml for 20k. Then I would be in for 60 k and still
Post a profit but if I lose bills in the last leg. I?ll win 20 on kc but lose 40 with parlay and rams plays. so back to losing 20 k. Right where I started. 🙈🤔

 

[Vicious]

My advice..... Stop betting Parlays

None of these playoff games overlap, and sure seems like you have the capital to play these games individually, so why Parlay and then hedge?

Honest question.

If you played the $20k on Cincy +3.5 -114, you would now have $38K to make your next move on TB, and then 3-4 hours later have a decision on Buffalo.

I'll never understand the hedge question on games spread out over different days. See it all the time. Guy has a 6 team NFL parlay, goes 5-0 on Sunday, and then asks a hedge question about the 6th team playing on Monday Night. Why not a 5 team parlay for sunday, cash it, and then decide how much of the winnings you want to put on the Monday Nighter.

Hope you hit it......

 

[lowell]

Would like to have a problem like this. How about a 2 team parlay Rams plus 3 and KC bought to plus 3 ? If Rams side loses than hedge with KC . Might get lucky and win everything.

 

[gjn23]

I've won one game in a parlay....I'm ready to hedge!

Why did you bother betting a parlay?

If you're that desperate just wait and see if you can get any in-game speeds to cover your hedge while also alowing for winning both ways

 

[Slumdog]

Thx for the input. I hear you V. Interesting idea Lowell. Going to study this further.

 

[rocky mountain]

My advice..... Stop betting Parlays

None of these playoff games overlap, and sure seems like you have the capital to play these games individually, so why Parlay and then hedge?

Honest question.

If you played the $20k on Cincy +3.5 -114, you would now have $38K to make your next move on TB, and then 3-4 hours later have a decision on Buffalo.

I'll never understand the hedge question on games spread out over different days. See it all the time. Guy has a 6 team NFL parlay, goes 5-0 on Sunday, and then asks a hedge question about the 6th team playing on Monday Night. Why not a 5 team parlay for sunday, cash it, and then decide how much of the winnings you want to put on the Monday Nighter.

Hope you hit it......

This is very good advice. It's exciting seeing such a large play nonetheless. Love to see your decision, so I can follow. I'm starting to feel less nervous about risking my last 1K seeing some of the action being thrown around. Hope you make a bunch and save a bunch of it!!

 

[LordofBalls]

if u do nothing and it loses... you're out 20k..

If u take the Rams +3... first, a chance for a "middle" which isn't ever bad...
and IF Rams win outright, u break even...
IF TBay wins, you're down 20k w/20k pending...

Moving to KC, you'd have to play KC ML to win 40 to break even ~ BUT have a small chance for "middle" if KC wins by 1... OR KC -1.5 if u prefer for less juice

IF you wanna guarantee SOME money... you'd have to bet "MORE" on the Rams (in case they win) and then "MORE" again on KC in case they win...

SO... if u put 25k on the Rams and TB wins you'd be down 25k, Rams win, you're up 5k...
NEXT STEP... you'd have to bet 50k on KC... again to assure a 5k profit..

BUT... if KC LOSES... you're down 80k on the straight bets... hit parlay and MAKE $40k profit
That's pure hedging... but it doesn't seem like a good betting strategy overall in this case

You're dealing with large amounts and I don't know how all this may affect your financial status..

IF I HAD TO HEDGE... I'd bet Ram ML for mebbe 12k to win about 15k (lose about 5k overall if Rams win)..
THEN LATER...
mebbe to win 40k on KC... to cover the 32k you've invested in par and Rams loss...
overall you'd win about 8k IF KC WINS...
OR about 50k IF Your parlay hits...

it's quite a dilemma sir

trying for a "middle" is never bad... but they rarely hit that often on tight spreads

From My perspective... I'd play the Rams for something for sure, most ML, some @ +3... and then root with the "House" on the last game

As KC is often a slow starter...
mebbe Bills get out to a big lead and you bet "Live" on KC ML @ +300 or more...? or get KC @ +7 or more?
that'd be a nice middle...
get both teams @ Plus Points!


GL Bud!

 

[lowell]

My advice..... Stop betting Parlays

None of these playoff games overlap, and sure seems like you have the capital to play these games individually, so why Parlay and then hedge?

Honest question.

If you played the $20k on Cincy +3.5 -114, you would now have $38K to make your next move on TB, and then 3-4 hours later have a decision on Buffalo.

I'll never understand the hedge question on games spread out over different days. See it all the time. Guy has a 6 team NFL parlay, goes 5-0 on Sunday, and then asks a hedge question about the 6th team playing on Monday Night. Why not a 5 team parlay for sunday, cash it, and then decide how much of the winnings you want to put on the Monday Nighter.

Hope you hit it......

Great advice. Last night I had open leg left on 6 team teaser from last week. Got tilted from Titans losing on a ML wager and from 1 too many bourbons. Added UNC in baskets instead of Green Bay on ML. Not only lost my parlay but I got a terrible hangover. At least both decisions on parlay were losers but wish I had hedged with Wake Forest. Good luck
.

 

[Slumdog]

if u do nothing and it loses... you're out 20k..

If u take the Rams +3... first, a chance for a "middle" which isn't ever bad...
and IF Rams win outright, u break even...
IF TBay wins, you're down 20k w/20k pending...

Moving to KC, you'd have to play KC ML to win 40 to break even ~ BUT have a small chance for "middle" if KC wins by 1... OR KC -1.5 if u prefer for less juice

IF you wanna guarantee SOME money... you'd have to bet "MORE" on the Rams (in case they win) and then "MORE" again on KC in case they win...

SO... if u put 25k on the Rams and TB wins you'd be down 25k, Rams win, you're up 5k...
NEXT STEP... you'd have to bet 50k on KC... again to assure a 5k profit..

BUT... if KC LOSES... you're down 80k on the straight bets... hit parlay and MAKE $40k profit
That's pure hedging... but it doesn't seem like a good betting strategy overall in this case

You're dealing with large amounts and I don't know how all this may affect your financial status..

IF I HAD TO HEDGE... I'd bet Ram ML for mebbe 12k to win about 15k (lose about 5k overall if Rams win)..
THEN LATER...
mebbe to win 40k on KC... to cover the 32k you've invested in par and Rams loss...
overall you'd win about 8k IF KC WINS...
OR about 50k IF Your parlay hits...

it's quite a dilemma sir

trying for a "middle" is never bad... but they rarely hit that often on tight spreads

From My perspective... I'd play the Rams for something for sure, most ML, some @ +3... and then root with the "House" on the last game

As KC is often a slow starter...
mebbe Bills get out to a big lead and you bet "Live" on KC ML @ +300 or more...? or get KC @ +7 or more?
that'd be a nice middle...
get both teams @ Plus Points!


GL Bud!

Awesome stuff. I follow you on all of it ! Thx for taking the time !!

 

[Howareewe]

Lots of room here. Any thoughts on hedging ?
20 k on rams +3 and if that loses kc ml for 20k. Then I would be in for 60 k and still
Post a profit but if I lose bills in the last leg. I?ll win 20 on kc but lose 40 with parlay and rams plays. so back to losing 20 k. Right where I started. 🙈🤔

Dang, you play 20 grand on plays?

 

[vaquerizo]

Dang, you play 20 grand on plays?

Not bad for a slum dog :SIB

 

[Howareewe]

Not bad for a slum dog :SIB

I find it funny he's talking 20 K on plays yet in another area he's looking to hedge with $100 plays and worried about $30?????? hahahahahahahahaha