help needed

baby johnson

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my portfolio has, ko (coke, thinking of selling), wec (wis energy), msft,nokia (possible sell), pcl(plumcreek lumber),hmc (honda),ptr (petro china),sny(sanofi)

just sold kss(kohls) and sne (sony)

my questions for sellkirk and wareagle, as well as any other expert is : are my holdings sound. Also I'm thinking of buying ford and bayer, i need opinions on these also

thank you
 

wareagle

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BL...i am far from an expert but by just glancing at what you have it looks to be a very conservative portfolio....absoultely nothing wrong with that at all. all very good companies with excellent revenues. MSFT is VERY frustrating to me...it has been in a 10$ range since late '02. they are sitting on enough cash to make any company feel happy. It just doesnt move. Is google or ebay better companies than msft...i think not that is why i am so perplexed.

coke is solid as solid comes...they are active in EVERY country in the world, not much else you could ask for...

looks like china petro has been on a roll here of late...i would look at getting out of that one in a few months when oil prices will roll back into the 40s and 50s...

i would stay away from ford and look at something like John deere. Competition in the auto industry is cutthroat ....Bayer is solid and low risk IMO

hope this helps
 
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selkirk

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BJ here are my thoughts on some of your stocks:

KO 2.50% slow growth that should increase its dividend. due not own it, management should increase the dividend as no longer a great growth company.

still 2.50% yield and earings 2.08 next year $2.20est. not the worse stocks.

WEC yield 2.30% seems a conservative util.
own Duke, Williams, in the US.
ENB, TRP in Canada, ENB trades on the us, good pipeline. hold, decent on a pullback

MSFT 1.20%, just such a huge company, it is difficult for a company of this size to grow at 10% year over year.

they should increase the divdend every 6 months. and get the yield up to 3-4% over time.
would hold to see if it goes up on the hype the new X-box gets this christmas. nothing like people lining up, could be good hype and stock go up a little.

sony machine looks better but will come out later. msft is putting a lot on the new xbox, as one of their main growth markets.
decent hold would see how the xbox does or hype, then look at the positon.

plum creek own a small positon.


petrochina company should make 7.40 05, 6-6.90 06, and yield over 3%.
good oil, other oil I own TLM, ECA, CNQ, SU,
some trade on Toronto PWT.un (oil trust pays 10.5%, great reserves), PCA Petro Canada have written put options.

do not get overweighted in oil/gas :) PTR decent holding in the group.

HMC does not seem to move, looking at it, hate the car industry.

kss pays no div, which is not good however they will grow their earnings. 2.40 this year and around 2.90 next. looks like a good retail holding. do not follow it.


You are missing a financial stock. you should own a bank, ect.
in Canada banks are a common investors and have done great for most conservative investors.

own some US stocks financials.
one making the headlines is TD BAnk, trades in the US, and will have partial ownership of the Ameritrade deal?

or Manulife an insurance company bought John Hancock. now they replaced JH management which were overpaid idiots and MFC runs the company. large North America operation and growing in Asia.

yield 2.02% short term would rate mfc and td hold but in 5 years these two stocks should do well.

also maybe an American regional bank, want a decent yield/div. and one that increases it every year or second.

also get a small cap equity fund. do some research and pick one that is diversified and beats their rivals. good way to play small caps. and lowering the risk.

FORD looks cheap, hate the car business especially the big 3. truck SUV sales are dropping, can someone mention a ford car that everyone wants to buy without incentives.

the trucks sell and will continue but for how long. Chrysler truck sales declined early this year. Toyoto sales are increasing, Honda is entering the game.

the big 3 are still the leaders but cannot afford to lose market share, which they might.

do not buy stocks that fall 30% in a year, however if you believe they can hit $1, and $1.25 it is not expenisve.


final thoguht on Ford 500...what were they thinking....

one car can save improve a company just look at the chrysler 300. greatly turned around Chrysler. hard to invest on the company that people want to buy without incentives.


thanks
selkirk
 

selkirk

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should mention the new Ford Mustang sells well without incentives, still it is not a volume car

thanks
selkirk
 

baby johnson

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thanks for the reply guys, i actually was thinking about adding citibank or pj morgan, just wasn't sure which Also am unsure what to do with nokia.

what is meant by "do not buy stocks that fall 30% in a year, however if you believe they can hit $1, and $1.25 it is not expenisve." and "PCA Petro Canada have written put options"

thanks again for your expertise, by the way i generally am more of a buy and hold investor due to laziness and time constaints..

bj
 

baby johnson

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I also have small positions in avaya, lucent,zweig ztr and dmoi which have all been laggards. should i sell em all and regroup? or give them time to recover, most are 10-30% lower than when purchased

bj
 

selkirk

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BJ if you own Ford in Jan, you have lost around 30%, now some investors would suggest that a stock that drops 30% offers now even greater value.

however in general I avoid stocks that have made their shareholders poor. The same management is still running the company.

prefer stocks that outperform the market and has increasing divdends and earnings. do not care for stocks that could not outperform the overall index.

as for the put options, have written (sold) put contracts on PCA Petro Canada. most expire in DEC, at a strike price of $70,$72.
basically I agree to buy the stock at $70, or $72 until DEC, have used the cash from these contracts in invest in Mawer small cap (cdn. fund). PCA is at $80 today.

thanks
selkirk
 
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