I have an invested interest in these companies and in time should do quite well,but depending on certain situations.
My take on MSITF and here is what a reasonable projection may result from the FDA approval and the sales for any upcoming kits..
With approximately 600 million S/O,actually 50 million less,but foresake of this post will leave it at 600 million..I'm not sure what the total health preventive cost on HIV is as a total,which includes devices and actual other source tests,but 5 billion is a reasonable start..So if the company can obtain just a fraction,let's say about 5% 250 Million dollars and even this is high..So will give it a conservative figure of 25 million dollars for the company's products in terms of sales..
Here goes..If and when the company can get this FDA approval,we will within a couple of hours have a share price spike to .25 and this is being conservative and modest at best,higher is my guess,but a nice start..Without sales, a leveling off of this spike will probably get a support area of around .05 to .10 ...Now this gives it a market cap of 60 million,not bad,but it has to hold here and the only way this will be possible is with sales..Remember that a PE seldomly will hold water in pennies and is generally not a factor so we won't attach a probability factor on this so everything has to be in actual results.The above support is going to be based on the FDA approval after the novelty ride is over and then the result of any anticipated sales,which in my opinion as stated above to be 25 million and the market cap of 60 million is the combination both the FDA approval and the 25 million in sales.It does become a factor with a PE once a company can establish itself beyond the mystic of being a pennystock..Pinksheet doesn't matter since many sound and qualified companies prefer trading on the pinks rather than move up..I would like to see MSITF move to nasdaq and believe they will once all this becomes more apparent..
If the company can get actual sales contracts totally just 5 million the first quarter (2004) we can see a share price and maintain support by April at about .05 .10..Now this could be much higher since a FDA approval on a device carries much weight,but I generally view the FDA factor at the time of issue on a share price and the actual sales constitute the price going forward.
What is key here is sales.If the company can't contribute to the above in sales within a reasonable amount of time then one can only expect that more dilution will eventually control the outcome going forward and a dreadful R/S sounding the end...
Now here is my take on LBTT..
To put the razors in perspective as in what will the REV result on the share price be..Well in my opinion it won't be as great as many here predict..The conservative estimate from Lifeline is 70 million dollars..Ok,with almost 300 million s/o this will translate into a share price of about .17 straight up..Companies always like to boost their most optimistic figures and in this case is no exception.I won't go into PE ratio since they hold very little water on pennies..Now if we can achieve the CE approval on this with the above sales,this certainly would give a nice bounce to the leveling off support area of around .45.Of course this is going on into 3 years.The announcement of the approval alone will shoot the price into what my guess would be around .25-.50 within hours of the release..So if the company believes the sales of the razors to equal the above potential (70 million) in 3 years,then look for a gradual slow climb without the approval and with the approval to a support of around .05 .10 within 6 months of today.This of course if we get the approval late December or Jan 2004..Now what will make this interesting is the result of the approval and the potential sale of the First Warning..It is here where the real potential lies and makes the figure .10 more realistic by the end of spring 2004.
To conservative for you folks,but a reasonable reality wouldn't you say?
Have a good day
varok
My take on MSITF and here is what a reasonable projection may result from the FDA approval and the sales for any upcoming kits..
With approximately 600 million S/O,actually 50 million less,but foresake of this post will leave it at 600 million..I'm not sure what the total health preventive cost on HIV is as a total,which includes devices and actual other source tests,but 5 billion is a reasonable start..So if the company can obtain just a fraction,let's say about 5% 250 Million dollars and even this is high..So will give it a conservative figure of 25 million dollars for the company's products in terms of sales..
Here goes..If and when the company can get this FDA approval,we will within a couple of hours have a share price spike to .25 and this is being conservative and modest at best,higher is my guess,but a nice start..Without sales, a leveling off of this spike will probably get a support area of around .05 to .10 ...Now this gives it a market cap of 60 million,not bad,but it has to hold here and the only way this will be possible is with sales..Remember that a PE seldomly will hold water in pennies and is generally not a factor so we won't attach a probability factor on this so everything has to be in actual results.The above support is going to be based on the FDA approval after the novelty ride is over and then the result of any anticipated sales,which in my opinion as stated above to be 25 million and the market cap of 60 million is the combination both the FDA approval and the 25 million in sales.It does become a factor with a PE once a company can establish itself beyond the mystic of being a pennystock..Pinksheet doesn't matter since many sound and qualified companies prefer trading on the pinks rather than move up..I would like to see MSITF move to nasdaq and believe they will once all this becomes more apparent..
If the company can get actual sales contracts totally just 5 million the first quarter (2004) we can see a share price and maintain support by April at about .05 .10..Now this could be much higher since a FDA approval on a device carries much weight,but I generally view the FDA factor at the time of issue on a share price and the actual sales constitute the price going forward.
What is key here is sales.If the company can't contribute to the above in sales within a reasonable amount of time then one can only expect that more dilution will eventually control the outcome going forward and a dreadful R/S sounding the end...
Now here is my take on LBTT..
To put the razors in perspective as in what will the REV result on the share price be..Well in my opinion it won't be as great as many here predict..The conservative estimate from Lifeline is 70 million dollars..Ok,with almost 300 million s/o this will translate into a share price of about .17 straight up..Companies always like to boost their most optimistic figures and in this case is no exception.I won't go into PE ratio since they hold very little water on pennies..Now if we can achieve the CE approval on this with the above sales,this certainly would give a nice bounce to the leveling off support area of around .45.Of course this is going on into 3 years.The announcement of the approval alone will shoot the price into what my guess would be around .25-.50 within hours of the release..So if the company believes the sales of the razors to equal the above potential (70 million) in 3 years,then look for a gradual slow climb without the approval and with the approval to a support of around .05 .10 within 6 months of today.This of course if we get the approval late December or Jan 2004..Now what will make this interesting is the result of the approval and the potential sale of the First Warning..It is here where the real potential lies and makes the figure .10 more realistic by the end of spring 2004.
To conservative for you folks,but a reasonable reality wouldn't you say?
Have a good day
varok
