Last Week: 6-4-1, +2.0 units
Overall: 42-35-2, +5.8 units
All plays are for 1 unit unless stated otherwise.
To me this looks like a week for the favorites to come roaring back. Here's what I have already played:
Buffalo -2?: Grabbed this Sunday night, under the impression it would quickly hit 3. Not yet.
The temptation may be there to say there's no way the Pats can lose yet AGAIN, it has to stop. Well, I don't see it ending here. True, the Pats weakness is against the run, and Buffalo is more of a passing team, but they have a running attack too. Travis Henry has chewed up weak run D this year and this looks like another chance to do so. Of course everyone knows the "Bledsoe vs his old team" angle. To me this isn't the main reason I took this (actually, it's a very small part of the reason I'm on it, I think it's more hype than anything). I just honestly think Buffalo is the better team right now. At home, giving up less than a FG. That says on a neutral field NE would be favored. That's just not right, given the directions each of these teams has been headed in this year. NE facing yet another team with a similar profile to all the other recent ones that have beaten them...namely, a winning team with a Top 10 offence and at least average defence. Bills also facing a team of a similar makeup to their recent victims...5th time in 6 games Buff has faced one of the 10 worst defences in the league. Bills have momentum, confidence is building, and are well-rounded enough to get the job done.
Tampa Bay -7: Laying the big wood here. Prior to this year laying this many points with the Bucs would make me very uncomfortable. But every way I look at this game, it's a romp. The most common criticism I see of TB is that they have no offence. Well how bad has it really been? Ok, they don't score 35 every week, but they have topped 20 in 5 of 8 games this year. That should be enough to get the job done most weeks, especially when you consider the defence they have! The three times they've been held below 20 were the past 3 weeks. Two of those are totally understandable. Visiting teams aren't going to go into Philly and score 20+ too often this year, so you can hardly fault them for only scoring 10 there. And Carolina's defence is still underrated...it's about all they have to keep them in their games. Minnesota's defence can't hold a candle to their two most-recent opponents. The Vikings...oh the Vikings...have looked awful this year. Trying to search for positives but there really aren't any. Their two wins this year are home games against the other two weaklings in their division, Detroit and Chicago. That's nothing to get excited about. In road games this year they were absolutely demolished by a weak Seattle team, almost shut out by a team with no defence (the Jets), and edged out by those same weak Bears. This team is not competitive on the road and I predict even with TB's QB problems we'll see their offence get untracked against softer opposition and cover the number.
Philadelphia -6: Another favorite. Man I don't usually like laying all these points, but I tell ya....this line should be much higher. Philly is a premier team in the league. By my ratings I have Chicago rated the 4th-worst team in the league, even though their W-L record may be a bit better than that. I mentioned this in the "What do you look for when capping a game thread": Both teams are facing the opposite type team of what they have recently seen. Philly has played 3 straight teams that stress defense and don't score a lot (Jax, TB, NYG), and now play vs the wide-open vacuous defence of Chicago. Looking for Philly to score easily and often here, as long as there is no game-after-the-Monday-nighter letdown. Bears have not allowed fewer than 23 points in a game for the past five weeks, and a lot of these games were against weaker teams. Bears have one of the weakest running games in the entire league and will not be able to run the ball. Resorting to the pass is a scary proposition too considering Philly is giving up the 5th-fewest passing yds/game. Even more impressive considering how much time Philly has spent in the lead this year, forcing other teams to HAVE to pass. I believe the Bears are already waving the white flag and just waiting to get back to Soldier Field next year. They're lame ducks, out of the race and seriously outclassed here. I'm quite comfortable giving 6 pts in this situation.
(Monday) Miami +4? -102 (Carib's 2% Tuesday): Finally, a dog! I don't quite understand why everyone is so high on the Packers. Look beyond the W-L record and you find some glaring weaknesses. You've got Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Ahman Green...but then what? Not much defence here! It wasn't that long ago that everyone was singing the Dolphins' praises, but that one loss to Buffalo seems to have soured a lot of people on them. The Pack definitely haven't been tested by a good team in a long time. Previous five games were against Det, Car, Chi, NE & Wash; not a winning team in the bunch. That doesn't prepare you well for a team that is serious about winning it's division and more. Both teams have had two weeks to get ready for this one. Which means Ray Lucas should be very comfortable running the Dolphin O now. Looking for a conservative game plan from Mia...just make sure Lucas doesn't do anything to lose it, and hand the ball to Ricky and let him run, run, run. Should be a great game, and if Miami doesn't win it outright, I think there's a good chance the points come into play.
Good luck everyone.
Overall: 42-35-2, +5.8 units
All plays are for 1 unit unless stated otherwise.
To me this looks like a week for the favorites to come roaring back. Here's what I have already played:
Buffalo -2?: Grabbed this Sunday night, under the impression it would quickly hit 3. Not yet.
The temptation may be there to say there's no way the Pats can lose yet AGAIN, it has to stop. Well, I don't see it ending here. True, the Pats weakness is against the run, and Buffalo is more of a passing team, but they have a running attack too. Travis Henry has chewed up weak run D this year and this looks like another chance to do so. Of course everyone knows the "Bledsoe vs his old team" angle. To me this isn't the main reason I took this (actually, it's a very small part of the reason I'm on it, I think it's more hype than anything). I just honestly think Buffalo is the better team right now. At home, giving up less than a FG. That says on a neutral field NE would be favored. That's just not right, given the directions each of these teams has been headed in this year. NE facing yet another team with a similar profile to all the other recent ones that have beaten them...namely, a winning team with a Top 10 offence and at least average defence. Bills also facing a team of a similar makeup to their recent victims...5th time in 6 games Buff has faced one of the 10 worst defences in the league. Bills have momentum, confidence is building, and are well-rounded enough to get the job done.Tampa Bay -7: Laying the big wood here. Prior to this year laying this many points with the Bucs would make me very uncomfortable. But every way I look at this game, it's a romp. The most common criticism I see of TB is that they have no offence. Well how bad has it really been? Ok, they don't score 35 every week, but they have topped 20 in 5 of 8 games this year. That should be enough to get the job done most weeks, especially when you consider the defence they have! The three times they've been held below 20 were the past 3 weeks. Two of those are totally understandable. Visiting teams aren't going to go into Philly and score 20+ too often this year, so you can hardly fault them for only scoring 10 there. And Carolina's defence is still underrated...it's about all they have to keep them in their games. Minnesota's defence can't hold a candle to their two most-recent opponents. The Vikings...oh the Vikings...have looked awful this year. Trying to search for positives but there really aren't any. Their two wins this year are home games against the other two weaklings in their division, Detroit and Chicago. That's nothing to get excited about. In road games this year they were absolutely demolished by a weak Seattle team, almost shut out by a team with no defence (the Jets), and edged out by those same weak Bears. This team is not competitive on the road and I predict even with TB's QB problems we'll see their offence get untracked against softer opposition and cover the number.
Philadelphia -6: Another favorite. Man I don't usually like laying all these points, but I tell ya....this line should be much higher. Philly is a premier team in the league. By my ratings I have Chicago rated the 4th-worst team in the league, even though their W-L record may be a bit better than that. I mentioned this in the "What do you look for when capping a game thread": Both teams are facing the opposite type team of what they have recently seen. Philly has played 3 straight teams that stress defense and don't score a lot (Jax, TB, NYG), and now play vs the wide-open vacuous defence of Chicago. Looking for Philly to score easily and often here, as long as there is no game-after-the-Monday-nighter letdown. Bears have not allowed fewer than 23 points in a game for the past five weeks, and a lot of these games were against weaker teams. Bears have one of the weakest running games in the entire league and will not be able to run the ball. Resorting to the pass is a scary proposition too considering Philly is giving up the 5th-fewest passing yds/game. Even more impressive considering how much time Philly has spent in the lead this year, forcing other teams to HAVE to pass. I believe the Bears are already waving the white flag and just waiting to get back to Soldier Field next year. They're lame ducks, out of the race and seriously outclassed here. I'm quite comfortable giving 6 pts in this situation.
(Monday) Miami +4? -102 (Carib's 2% Tuesday): Finally, a dog! I don't quite understand why everyone is so high on the Packers. Look beyond the W-L record and you find some glaring weaknesses. You've got Brett Favre, Donald Driver, Ahman Green...but then what? Not much defence here! It wasn't that long ago that everyone was singing the Dolphins' praises, but that one loss to Buffalo seems to have soured a lot of people on them. The Pack definitely haven't been tested by a good team in a long time. Previous five games were against Det, Car, Chi, NE & Wash; not a winning team in the bunch. That doesn't prepare you well for a team that is serious about winning it's division and more. Both teams have had two weeks to get ready for this one. Which means Ray Lucas should be very comfortable running the Dolphin O now. Looking for a conservative game plan from Mia...just make sure Lucas doesn't do anything to lose it, and hand the ball to Ricky and let him run, run, run. Should be a great game, and if Miami doesn't win it outright, I think there's a good chance the points come into play.
Good luck everyone.
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