Here's a Polyester Pick, Nolan

[TheShrimp]

East leading New Jersey Nets ONLY a 1.5 pt. favorite over the lowly 28-32 Phoenix Suns??? That's a Mortal Lock.

Polyester loading up on the Nets.

Here's a little on the Suns.

TheShrimp

 

[Antonio]

I like it

 

[Statman02]

don't know if it means much but I show NJ as 1/7 ats away @ pick to 1.5........and NJ seems to be fading lately.......they have gone from #17 RPI to # 23 in the last 8 games.......while Phoenix has improved from # 22 to # 20......so for me......here comes the Suns

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Damn good point!

Polyester will be all over the Nets tonight. My waistline is 40, will be 46 eventually...maybe I'm turning into that cat.

Horrors!

Nolan

 

[TheShrimp]

Nolan,

I didn't notice you were on the Nets until after I posted yesterday. The polyester siren song led you into the rocks.

I'm not one to get all excited because a couple of picks hit, but in a sense, a polyester pick is basically looking for a "trap line" and going against it, a time honored tradition, particularly if you believe in the "trap theory" instead of the "books want equal action" theory.

FYI, a few months ago, a guy was posting on the NCAA forum about "sides I would never bet", or something like that, and then taking the opposite. Through many games, the ones he shied away from were missing at less than a 40% clip (meaning if you faded them, you were hitting around 60%). He had a couple of bad nights using his system (meaning his bad picks covered), and if I remember the posting history correctly, someone gave him crap for fooling around and he stopped posting them.

I'm fairly new to NBA betting, but I've always looked for those kinds of lines in the NFL (something that comes right to mind: late in the season--Ravens a 1 pt. fave at Tampa Bay. Mortal Lock, right? Wrong.)

I haven't even looked at the lines yet today, but when I do, if something jumps right out at me screaming "you gotta bet on me", I'll be back with more Poly.

TheShrimp

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Great post, Shrimp. It's definitely something to watch -- a line that looks "too good to be true."

That's why tonight I thought all the solid West Conference home favorites looked easy. Seattle by 4.5 over Charlotte -- why that's easy! Same with San Antonio and Dallas aver the dregs they are playing (laying less than 9 in both cases).

If someone tells me the tout services are all over those plays, I'm definitely on the other side.

Thanks for the excellent comments.

-- Nolan Dalla