cbrown, i had a no play on the cards preseason total, actually took Cubs over82 (on pace for 74), Reds over79.5 (88), Pirates under69.5 (58).
at the break the Cards were 47-41, needed 42-32 in the second half to go over88.
i capped their second half schedule and don't think they get there. they started out hot, but from may 28th to the all-star break they were 19-20. i think wainwright comes back to earth a little bit. has to. and carpenter's bound to hit the DL at some point or skip a start. but definitely can't be counted on to carry them against a schedule that doesn't give them any breaks outside of the division, especially with suppan as their #5.
i see them struggling a bit in the tough stretch that starts @FLA and ends with a 3-game set at home vs the giants. think they come in under 88. got +110 on 88.0 at the break. good luck to us.
the mets i didn't have preseason either. had the Braves over85.5 (93) but thought the phils and mets #s were just right.
the mets OVERACHIEVED in the first half primarily Niese and Pelfrey. and Santana isn't the same guy he was when they got him way back when. they needed to go 38-36 to get over the all-star break line of 86, which i played under.
i think they'll have plenty of trouble against the braves and phils, and that road trip they just home from--i had them winning 6 of 11--puts them on pace for 82.6 wins... right on the #! if pelfrey remains in the rotation, i don't see them winning more than 1/4 of his games. so that's 85%. they've won 11 of 21 santana starts, don't see that getting better. so we're down to 75%. niese? 11 of 18 so far, but he only faced PHI once, ATL once, and his run support is 1.1runs/gm over the team average. if they win half his games, we're down to 65%. so to win 53%, they need to win 40% of Dickey + the #5's starts (not sure if takahashi remains, but knowing the mets, they won't make a smart move).
i think it's still very close on the 82 realistically. they may land on .500 for the year.
i really, really like my under86 bet after that road trip, and don't but too much weight in tonight's game.
we'll know who they really are after they leave town sunday. 12 games @ATL, @PHI, COL, PHI... have them winning 5 of 12. if they come out of that stretch back on pace for 85-86, i think they can come in over the 82.5 unless they lose someone key to an injury.
