This obviously has been a great series with tons of nuances in the numbers. Would love to hear your input!
P.S. Love Indy but I'm a homer!
P.S. Love Indy but I'm a homer!
HH...
- Thread starter ballplayer8
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Very excited for the game tonight. If you go by the numbers, the Pacers have had the series-long advantage. They have actually improved upon their regular season offensive rebounding rate against the Heat, grabbing 36.6% of available offensive rebounds - a rate that is considerably higher than any team averaged for the whole NBA season. This has been huge for them, because it helps them maintain the possession margin, since they have still been plagued by their turnover rate. The Pacers are owning the Heat inside - in the regular season only 48% of their FGA came from in the paint, and during this series 55% of their attempts are from the paint. Consider that the combo of Hibbert-West has 239 points and 110 rebounds, while Bosh-Haslem have only 110 points and 46 rebounds. Ownage.
Vogel has just figured it out, and Spoelstra is scrambling. Look at the line-ups that Spoelstra was playing in the last game - lineups that had never even seen the floor together during this series. Battier was a key player for the Heat all season, and he only played four minutes in the last game. They just don?t know what to do. They just have no lineup that can match up with the Pacers to do what they want to do. This takes them out of their typical rhythm.
The Pacers starters have a net rating of +16.1 for this series, vs. the Heat?s starters at -0.5. The starter?s rebounding rate is 58.8% vs 42.1%. Their effective field goal percentage is 55% vs 52.6%. The Pacers have defended the three point line very well, limiting the Heat?s good looks, and really limiting their corner threes where they have been deadly all season. But most importantly, the Pacers offense has been unbelievable. They are getting very good looks, and their rating has soared to 106.5 for this series, well above their 101.6 rating for the regular season. They have been the aggressors, averaging more FTAs than the Heat. They have won three important statistical categories thus far: FTAs, rebounds, points in the paint. Teams that win these three categories cover the spread 70% of the time, and when playing as a dog win SU 60% of the time. Statistics would tell us that they have a good chance to win these three categories again tonight, and if they can, they have a great chance to win.
Teams who have won their series so far this season all have a few things in common - they have had the best player on the floor and the best coach. No way I would have guessed that the Pacers would have had the best player on the floor before this series started, but have to say that Hibbert has been the best player and Vogel easily the best coach. Hibbert is the only player in this series who is averaging a double-double, and although Lebron has been unbelievably good as well, he is a one man show out there. He is getting no help from his other "big 2", and the role players have pulled an absentee.
Well, obviously I am rooting huge for the Pacers tonight, as I have a big future pending on them. I also would like nothing better than a Spurs-Pacers final - I think that would be great basketball to watch. Beyond the basic numbers though, there are certainly emotional factors. I actually feel that these favor the Pacers - the pressure is on the Heat. They are expected to win. I think the Pacers relish playing as the underdog better. The Pacers are 4-2 ATS during this series, showing how they have outperformed expectations. Really, if not for one defensive lapse in game one, the Pacers might be on their way to San Antonio right now.
But, you can?t count out the Heat. They haven?t lost back to back games since the beginning of January, winning 9 straight following a loss. They are really, really good. You don't get to this point in the playoffs without being the best of the best. Home teams are 89-23 SU in game 7s. The Pacers will have to bring their best game tonight, and if the Heat play their absolute best game, even that effort might not be enough.
Cheers
Vogel has just figured it out, and Spoelstra is scrambling. Look at the line-ups that Spoelstra was playing in the last game - lineups that had never even seen the floor together during this series. Battier was a key player for the Heat all season, and he only played four minutes in the last game. They just don?t know what to do. They just have no lineup that can match up with the Pacers to do what they want to do. This takes them out of their typical rhythm.
The Pacers starters have a net rating of +16.1 for this series, vs. the Heat?s starters at -0.5. The starter?s rebounding rate is 58.8% vs 42.1%. Their effective field goal percentage is 55% vs 52.6%. The Pacers have defended the three point line very well, limiting the Heat?s good looks, and really limiting their corner threes where they have been deadly all season. But most importantly, the Pacers offense has been unbelievable. They are getting very good looks, and their rating has soared to 106.5 for this series, well above their 101.6 rating for the regular season. They have been the aggressors, averaging more FTAs than the Heat. They have won three important statistical categories thus far: FTAs, rebounds, points in the paint. Teams that win these three categories cover the spread 70% of the time, and when playing as a dog win SU 60% of the time. Statistics would tell us that they have a good chance to win these three categories again tonight, and if they can, they have a great chance to win.
Teams who have won their series so far this season all have a few things in common - they have had the best player on the floor and the best coach. No way I would have guessed that the Pacers would have had the best player on the floor before this series started, but have to say that Hibbert has been the best player and Vogel easily the best coach. Hibbert is the only player in this series who is averaging a double-double, and although Lebron has been unbelievably good as well, he is a one man show out there. He is getting no help from his other "big 2", and the role players have pulled an absentee.
Well, obviously I am rooting huge for the Pacers tonight, as I have a big future pending on them. I also would like nothing better than a Spurs-Pacers final - I think that would be great basketball to watch. Beyond the basic numbers though, there are certainly emotional factors. I actually feel that these favor the Pacers - the pressure is on the Heat. They are expected to win. I think the Pacers relish playing as the underdog better. The Pacers are 4-2 ATS during this series, showing how they have outperformed expectations. Really, if not for one defensive lapse in game one, the Pacers might be on their way to San Antonio right now.
But, you can?t count out the Heat. They haven?t lost back to back games since the beginning of January, winning 9 straight following a loss. They are really, really good. You don't get to this point in the playoffs without being the best of the best. Home teams are 89-23 SU in game 7s. The Pacers will have to bring their best game tonight, and if the Heat play their absolute best game, even that effort might not be enough.
Cheers
Last edited:
- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
Thanks HH, as always great write up and great info! Hopefully we get the good Lance tonight and Hill can knock down a few open 3s! Reduce the turnovers and I think the Pacers will be heading to the Finals!! And Congrats on the MJer of the month thing lol!
