High Scoring Letdown Theory

[Senor Capper]

For the NFL.

Simply put: Go against the winner of the previous week's highest scoring NFL game

I'm talking about the combined scores of the 2 teams & not necessarily the most points scored by 1 winning team.

For instance you would go with the winner of a 37-30 game instead of the winner of a 45-10 game.
Obviously the team was involved in a physically & mentally draining affair.

LY beginning Sept 9 through January 6 there were 18 games that qualified here.

Overall results were 11 winners & 7 losers (61&)
Home Plays were 7 winners 2 losers (78%)

Very simple, with solid results, especially when these teams played at home.

 

[vanbasten]

so this week the play is against oakland, according to the above.

by home plays you mean, playing st louis (home) against last weeks high total winner (oakland), this scenerio last year hit 7 of 9? i believe this is how i understand it.

thanks for clarifying.

good luck.

 

[nemo]

anyone know what the record would be this ytd? i am at work right now and cant check it out

 

[Senor Capper]

Example:

Example:

LY
Week 3

Kansas City 45
Washington 13 (loved that game btw)

Week 4
Bet against KC (at home)

Pittsburgh 20
Kansas City 17

 

[Senor Capper]

No

No

That would be play against Oakland at home to qualify for the (78%)


Overall results were (61%)

 

[vanbasten]

ok

ok

i was trying to figure out who had to be at home.

thanks.

good luck.

 

[GM]

So many crazy high-scoring games this year, I'm thinking it might make more sense to do this for more than 1 game per week if there are multiple games close to making the cut. I mean 78 pts in a game isn't that much more than 77.

As best I can figure out, here's how it's performed this year.

Week 1's High Team: Kansas City, 40-39 @ Cleveland
Week 2: KC loses & fails to cover vs Jax, 16-23. (W for the system)

Week 2's High Team: Buffalo, 45-39 in OT @ Minnesota
Week 3: Buffalo loses but DOES cover @ Denver, 23-28 (L for the system)

Week 3's High Team: New England, 41-38 in OT vs Kansas City
Week 4: New England loses & fails to cover @ San Diego, 14-21 (W for the system)

Week 4's High Team: Kansas City, 48-30 vs Miami
Week 5: Kansas City wins & covers @ NYJ, 29-25 (L for the system)

(coming very close to qualifying in Week 4/5 was Oakland, in a 77-point game vs Tenn...then winning & covering @ Buff)

System 2-2 thus far this year if I've picked out the right games.

 

[vanbasten]

beat me to it

beat me to it

you got the right games. interesting how kc's in 3 of the first 5 weeks.

 

[Valuist]

It seems everyone and their brother is on Oakland. This is an interesting angle. I like an angle that will go against an overwhelming public favorite, and knowing how the public loves to back offensive-oriented teams, you probably get value.

 

[djv]

K City does not surprise me. There coach is building the new St Lou. He will work on more def's players next year.

 

[TheShrimp]

Great angle.

The highest scoring game is often memorable (KC-CLE, KC-NE, eg.) and so you'd expect the line to favor the opponent of the winner of the highest scoring game.

It also involves the aspect that bettors love offense, but tend to ignore defense. Being involved in the highest scoring game usually means you'd have a pretty poor 'D', too.

I wonder if it could be refined where you bet against the winner of the highest scoring game only if it was also "close" in some regard. That would throw out the bet on KC vs. the Jets putting the system at 2-1 this year, instead of 2-2.

FWIW, I like STL this week. That was one of my early leans, but I haven't played it yet. Might wait till game day.

Thanks for the good info, Senor.

 

[GM]

Another factor which may be making this work....a team that scores a ton has probably done so against a poor defensive team. Chances are the team you play next week will have better defence than the one you just played.

I love any betting angle which involves a team having played vs poor D for 2 or 3 games, and then suddenly they have to contend with a good D (bet-against), or vice versa (bet-on). Teams' offences can't cope with good D when they haven't seen it in a while, and teams that have faced all good D explode offensively when they finally meet an opponent who isn't up to par with the previous opponents.

 

[Valuist]

This angle came thru big time. The whole world seemed to be on Oak last week. New Orleans looks like the go-against qualifier this week.

 

[Senor Capper]

Yepper

Yepper

& I'm already on 'em.