Historical popular pick destruction ATS through first 5 games

[rocky mountain]

This is from Nolan Dalla:
Popular picks have been getting torched so far this season. According to the Action Network’s internal betting data, teams with 60 percent or higher measured by the number of tickets on those teams, are a dreadful 13-30 ATS through NFL Week 5. That’s the worst ATS mark for public bettors in the 23-year history of their tracking database.

In fact, 2025 continues a downward trend for the public teams and their results. Just in the last two seasons, teams with 60 percent of tickets and higher went 30-57-1 ATS (only 35 percent wins) in the first five weeks of the year.

Here’s more surprising information: Teams with 70 percent of tickets this season are a horrendous 3-13 ATS, including an abysmal 0-7 ATS when those teams are playing at home. The lesson here from the data seems obvious. Avoid popular public picks each week, or at least use the fade technique as a starting point in handicapping. I’ll certainly be leaning towards the unpopular teams in the coming weeks..

This powerful trend isn’t just applicable to sportsbook cash wagers. Contest players have also been getting burned. The consensus picks in the top two weekly NFL handicapping contests — Circa Millions and the Westgate SuperContest – are hitting just 42 percent after five weeks. So, fading these popular choices has been a winning strategy for those who have been the ultimate contrarians.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Assuming this is proper source,

NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages | The Action Network

Get public betting percentages on every NFL game to see which teams might be overvalued and undervalued by bettors.

www.actionnetwork.com

60%+ "of tickets" (not by money) for week 6 are:
eagles -7.5 76% LOSS 17-34
broncos -7 60% loss 13-11
Colts -9.5 66% loss 31-27
rams -7 72% WIN 17-3
cowboys -3 74% LOSS 27-30
chargers -3.5 62% loss 29-27
patriots -3.5 70% WIN 25-19
bengals +14 61% win 18-27
lions +2.5 84% LOSS 17-30
bills -4 78%

Quite a few. Assuming I'm understanding correctly. I'd be curious to see how this goes for the next 3 weeks or so. I could never blindly just fade such a huge list, but picking and choosing would statistically reduce the advantage, I presume.

holy chit its post-9:30am

cheers

--might as well update my curiosity; CAPS indicating dog won via moneline (e.g. Giants W over Eagles on TNF) (or other side, in case of just bengals or lions, here). Added scores via sleepy-time late window for immaculate redundancy.

--thanks for the heads-up, below, that it serves some value, and thanks to rocky mountain for getting me to reconsider this angle; I'd like to argue that sometimes the matchups look obvious and that sometimes the public can have a clue, but I don't see a real "no-brainer" anywhere on the above list...even with Rams clearing the number somewhat comfortably--by end result--that game was looking weirdly in question for a good stretch of the contest.

The Nolan Dalla article says to just use it as a guide, but I'm not clear on how to best utilize such. Like many, I can be a sucker for favorites. Momentum can be an illusion, for week-to-week, but key injuries seem more relevant than ever.

On a more personal note, it was some Nolan Dalla NFL articles, on this site, that originally brought me here. Talking 2000, back when I was using the most convoluted handicapping method ever. Seemed to work, or so my faulty memory claims.

Go Falcons!

 

[Barber]

I love stuff like this. Thanks for posting and following up the record. FYI, I am not a handicapper. I am a lurker.

 

[rocky mountain]

Assuming this is proper source,

NFL Public Betting & Money Percentages | The Action Network

Get public betting percentages on every NFL game to see which teams might be overvalued and undervalued by bettors.

www.actionnetwork.com

60%+ "of tickets" (not by money) for week 6 are:
eagles -7.5 76% LOSS 17-34
broncos -7 60% loss 13-11
Colts -9.5 66% loss 31-27
rams -7 72% WIN 17-3
cowboys -3 74% LOSS 27-30
chargers -3.5 62% loss 29-27
patriots -3.5 70% WIN 25-19
bengals +14 61% win 18-27
lions +2.5 84%
bills -4 78%

Quite a few. Assuming I'm understanding correctly. I'd be curious to see how this goes for the next 3 weeks or so. I could never blindly just fade such a huge list, but picking and choosing would statistically reduce the advantage, I presume.

holy chit its post-9:30am

cheers

--might as well update my curiosity; CAPS indicating dog won via moneline (e.g. Giants W over Eagles on TNF) (or other side, in case of just bengals or lions, here). Added scores via sleepy-time late window for immaculate redundancy.

Lions are a loss too. so 6-3 thus far with ATL being the play. Smart for you to track, thanks