Holiday Bowl - Scouts Inc's take

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Belly of the Beast
Updated: Dec. 20, 2005, 3:36 PM ET
Peterson gives Sooners the edge in Holiday Bowl Scouts, Inc.


The Pacific Life Holiday Bowl has supplied some entertaining matchups. With Adrian Peterson and Oklahoma taking on high-scoring Oregon, the 2005 edition should be no different.

Oregon Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
Oregon lost starting QB Kellen Clemens to a season-ending ankle injury earlier this year but it hasn't missed a beat. Dennis Dixon has done an excellent job of filling in with Brady Leaf seeing some time in relief. Dixon, who is just a sophomore, lacks ideal experience in big games but he has been accurate and he is capable of picking up critical yards with his feet when nothing is available downfield. Leaf hasn't performed as well so there's reason to believe he won't see much time. Both quarterbacks will look to get the ball into the hands of WR Demetrius Williams, who is averaging close to 19 yards per reception.

The Ducks will try to take some pressure off their young quarterbacks by establishing an effective running game. However, that's far easier said than done working against an Oklahoma run defense that is giving up average of just 2.8 yards per carry. While RB Terrence Whitehead runs with adequate power and shows good burst though the hole, he has been inconsistent. If Oregon is to keep the Sooners off balance, it's critical that the senior and his offensive line have strong games.

Oklahoma Offense vs. Oregon Defense
Redshirt freshman QB Rhett Bomar has the natural ability to develop into an excellent starter and he showed progress late in the season, but he still makes poor decisions at times. That doesn't bode well for Oklahoma because TCU is the only team to record more interceptions than the Ducks who finished the season with 22. As a result, look for the Sooners to show a strong commitment to the run in an effort to keep Oregon's pass rush on its heels and avoid situations with pass-heavy tendencies.

The good news for Oklahoma fans is RB Adrian Peterson had his best game of the year in the season finale, and he has been impressive in the Sooners' past four games. Look for the Sooners to focus on attacking the perimeter of the Ducks' run defense for three reasons.
No. 1: DT Haloti Ngata (the Pac-10 Co-Defensive Player of the Year). He is a massive interior run stuffer that can regularly hold his ground working against double teams so Oklahoma will look to avoid him by getting outside. No. 2: All Big-12 LT Davin Joseph. Joseph is a powerful drive blocker with enough lateral mobility to seal the edge. No. 3: Peterson, who has the burst to turn the corner quickly and the strength to run over defensive backs once he gets into the open field.

Special Teams
Oregon PK Paul Martinez has connected on 19 of his 24 field goal attempts and he has shown that he can get the job done when the game is on the line. P Matt Dragich is averaging 36.9 yards per punt and he has placed six of his 24 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. KOR Jonathan Stewart has returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and PR Justin Phinisee has returned a punt for a touchdown. Both are capable of going the distance every time they touch the ball.

Oklahoma PK Garrett Harley has connected on 13 of his 21 field goal attempts and he has missed two of his last three attempts. P Cody Freeby is averaging 42.8 yards per punt and he has placed twelve of his 64 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line

Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Oklahoma LOG Kelvin Chaisson vs. Oregon DT Haloti Ngata
2. Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson vs. Oregon MLB Blair Phillips
3. Oregon WR Demetrius Williams vs. Oklahoma DC D.J. Wolfe

Scouts' Edge
Inconsistent offensive line play and Bomar's lack of experience are reasons for Oklahoma fans to be concerned. However, a strong defensive effort and a big game from Peterson should give the Sooners the win. Oklahoma's aggressive front seven is capable of slowing Whitehead down and putting Dixon in plenty of situations with pass-heavy tendencies. Dixon has played well but he needs the ground game taking pressure off him to be truly effective. Peterson's ability to get outside against a Ducks' run defense that is giving up an average of four yards per carry will allow Oklahoma to sustain long scoring drives without asking Bomar to do too much. It's also worth mentioning that Oregon feels it should have received a BCS bid, and it could be overconfident heading into this game consequently.

Prediction: Oklahoma 28, Oregon 24
 
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