Has anyone ever experimented with a system for determining totals for college basketball? I have come up with a couple for college football and was wondering what you base your college basketball totals on?
Hoops Total System
- Thread starter Master Capper
- Start date
I don't use a specific system or anything like that, but...
I first look at the line, obviously, then I look at both teams scoring outputs. I look at their defensive stats as far as how much they give up. Then I look at the 2 styles of play, and how they're going to play against each other. I also look at injuries, shooting %'s, etc...
I first look at the line, obviously, then I look at both teams scoring outputs. I look at their defensive stats as far as how much they give up. Then I look at the 2 styles of play, and how they're going to play against each other. I also look at injuries, shooting %'s, etc...
- Nov 7, 2004
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A system I've used the past couple years....
Tracked totals on Nationaly televised games only(viewable in all markets). With 63% or higher public money on the over, the under is hitting at over 64%. That number increases to 66% for games on ESPN only!
Tracked totals on Nationaly televised games only(viewable in all markets). With 63% or higher public money on the over, the under is hitting at over 64%. That number increases to 66% for games on ESPN only!
- Nov 7, 2004
- 5,619
- 31
- 0
- 54
My numbers might have been off. After going back, my calculations were figured on 58% or higher public money on the over last year. I didn't take the time to figure games only on the ESPN networks, but I do know it was profitable.
So far this year, GAMES NATIONALLY TELEVISED on ESPN or ESPN 2 ONLY with 58% or higher public money on the over....
10-4 (71.4%) UNDER
The "style" is usually more important than scoring outputs. Basically the "pace" that teams play should be the driving factor in finding value. FG%'s are going to differ from game to game obviously. If you find a total that is more based on scoring outputs as opposed to pace, there is likely to be value in playing the Over or Under.
Also, playing the Under in Big East conference games on Monday (Big Monday) has been real profitable the last couple of years. Basic premise is that both teams played on Saturday, so it is a quick turnaround and the legs aren't there for the kids. I'll have to dig up my stats on that, but it hit real well last year. Big XII was around .500 if I remember correctly.
In Big East conference games that were played on Monday, and both teams played the prior Saturday, the Under hit 78% last season and has hit 69% over the last three seasons.
I tracked the conference games that fell into that Monday/Saturday category for the Big East back three seasons and the Big XII back two seasons. The Unders for the Big XII games only hit at 56% and I don?t have the data for that third season back.
I also looked at Home vs. Road and Fav vs. Dog, and in both cases the results were too close to .500 to be considered enough of a trend in my mind.
I tracked the conference games that fell into that Monday/Saturday category for the Big East back three seasons and the Big XII back two seasons. The Unders for the Big XII games only hit at 56% and I don?t have the data for that third season back.
I also looked at Home vs. Road and Fav vs. Dog, and in both cases the results were too close to .500 to be considered enough of a trend in my mind.
