HORSE RACING

[Lumi]

HORSE RACING
TODAY AT HOLLYWOOD PARK

By Richard Eng

Post Time 12:30 p.m.

Race 1 - 6 1/2 furlongs, Purse $20,000, Maiden claiming $32,000, 2-year-olds

Roar's Dancer - Dan Hendricks adding blinkers on for the money shot; need not be much to beat these.

Straightomidnight - Good looking try in a turf route last out; back for a price tag and sprinting.

Long Shot - Cookie Rules

Race 2 - 6 furlongs, Purse $16,000, Claiming $12,500, 3-year-olds and up

Ballistic Heat - Beaten favorite ran a monster race two back; if he repeats that, he'll beat these.

To The Penny - Drops down in class to face his friends again; tactical speed to sit a perfect trip.

Long Shot - Sidepocket Lou

Race 3 - 6 1/2 furlongs, Purse $32,000, Starter allowance $40,000, 3-year-olds and up

Proud Hillbilly - Just missed by a lip last time in a strong try; protected since two maiden claiming races.

Cafe Con Leche - Tough trip in last and is capable of doing much better; can clock the speed from the wideout.

Long Shot - Tom Bombadil

Race 4 - 6 furlongs, Purse $46,000, Maiden special weights, Fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up

Fund Raiser - Bob Baffert has an uncoupled entry, the other gal is Elusive Allie; must time her move just right.

Khendum - FTS from John Shirreffs for Jerry Moss; not big on firing first time, have to win on inherent talent.

Long Shot - Gumption

Race 5 - 1 mile (turf), $100,000 Miesque, Fillies, 2-year-olds

In the Slips - Euro invader appears to have the most class on grass; Garrett Gomez, whoe else, gets the call.

Forbidden Paradise - Like that Rafael Bejarano stays loyal off a miserable Oak Leaf; she must have hidden talent.

Long Shot - Full Mandate

Race 6 - 6 furlongs, Purse $52,000, Optional claiming $52,000, 3-year-olds and up

M One Rifle - Has blazing speed so 6-furlongs, or less, are his best distances; plays catch me if you can.

Goldsville - Ran evenly in return off a 9-month hiatus; like that Rafael Bejarano remains loyal the the cause.

Long Shot - Big Bad Leroybrown

Race 7 - 6 furlongs (turf), Purse $61,000, Optional Claiming $100,000, 3-year-olds and up

Quietly Mine - Many eastern horses are shipping west, has a ton of back class; 1-turns sprint are his gig.

Stoneside - Tepid chalk in a wide open affair; exits multiple stakes races for a mid-level optional claimer.

Long Shot - Get Funky

Race 8 - 1 1/16th miles, Purse $52,000, Allowance, 3-year-olds and up

Mr. Hot Stuff - Been stuck in this NW1X allowance condition; appears to be facing slower horses each time out.

Kalookan Storm - Has improved a lot since claimed by A.C. Avila; tactical speed to sit a perfect trip.

Long Shot - Never

Race 9 - 1 1/4 miles (turf), $300,000 Hollywood Derby, 3-year-olds

Battle of Hastings - I thought for sure he was going to win last time; Gomez for Baze who is nursing a broken digit.

Take the Points - Todd Pletcher hopes this colt runs better than Cowboy Cal; has really come into his own on sod.

Long Shot - The Usual Q.T.

Race 10 - 6 furlongs, Purse $46,000, Maiden special weights, 2-year-olds

Domonation - Exits a key race chasing next out winners Conveyance and Brady Blue Eyes; ready to unpop a corker.

Zilarator - FTS from Bob Baffert who starts and uncoupled entry; bullet workouts and main man Rafael Bejarano.

Long Shot - Quiet Invader

Best Bet - Mr. Hot Stuff (race 8)

Hollywood Saturday - Picks/Winners/Mutuels, 19/5/$22.40; Long Shots, 9/1/$6.60; Best Bet, 1/1/$3.20

Hollywood Totals - 199/51/$310.80; Long Shots, 100/14/$145.40; Best Bets, 11/5/$18.00

SIMULCAST PICK OF THE DAY - #3 Weak Dollar Policy (2/1) in race 6 at Aqueduct. For scoring purposes, we'll make a hypothetical $2 win, place and show bet, $6 total. On Saturday, Fly Down won at Churchill Downs paying $6.60 to win, $3.60 to place and $2.80 to show. Stats - 176/126/$975.80

 

[Lumi]

At the Gate - Sunday

At the Gate - Sunday

At the Gate - Sunday

In Saturday?s Cigar Mile (G1) at the Big A I was torn between Vineyard Haven and Kodiak Kowboy.



Vineyard Haven had put in one of the most impressive performances I have seen this year winning the Frank J. DeFrancis Dash (G1) at Laurel Park.



Looking hopelessly beaten in the stretch, the colt rallied up the rail for the win, his second Grade 1 of the year after winning the Kings Bishop in his previous start.



Kodiak Kowboy had won the Vosburgh (G1) as my top pick in his previous race, paying $11.60 in a four-horse field. I thought we had robbed a bank after cashing on that race.





I made Vineyard Haven my top pick with fair odds of 8/5. Despite being sent off at 6/5, I went ahead and bet the colt to win anyway.



Kodiak Kowboy was my second choice, with fair odds of 2/1. He went off at 7/2, and returned $8.70.



It was hard to knock the performance of Bribon, who was second, beaten ? of a length or Vineyard haven, who was another head back in third, they both ran bang up races.



However, they were no match for Kodiak Kowboy, who finished strongly for the win with jockey Sean Bridgemohan aboard.



There is a good reason I include fair odds on all of my contenders in each race, and I certainly did not follow my own advice in the race.



I had just finished a turkey sandwich, and place the blame squarely on the Tryptophan.



I hope that you did not make the same mistake (betting on Vineyard Haven, not having leftover turkey).


Here is today's opening race from Aqueduct to get our day off to a good start:



AQU Race 1 Clm $15,000N2L (12:00 ET)

#4 Mighty Morris 4/1

#3 Mr. Vantastic 5/2

#2 Hue and Cry 6/1

#8 Coney Island 8/1



Analysis: #4 Mighty Morris is making his first start since May and certainly finds a weak spot here facing state bred $15K non-winners of two. The gelding broke his maiden three back in a game effort and then was beaten a combined 50 lengths in two starts against NY bred Alw-1 company. The gelding lands with the Kimmel barn that is 10% winners with horses coming back off a +180 day layoff. The gelding popped a bullet work, the best of 79 to go four furlongs on the Belmont training track on Nov. 23.



#3 Mr. Vantastic was off a step slow, saved ground and made a mild late rally to finish third last out in his first go against winners. He broke his maiden two back against open $25K maiden claimers on the turf. The gelding owns the top last out speed fig and encouraging seeing Johnny V. take the call for the low profile barn.



Wagering

WIN: #4 to win at 5/2 or better.

EX: 3,4 / 2,3,4,8

TRI: 3,4 / 2,3,4,8 / 2,3,4,7,8



Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:



AQU Race 8 Power Lunch S. (3:44 ET)

#1 Malibu Moonshine 12/1

#4 Atoned 1/1

#3 Jane's Kid 10/1

#7 Borrowing Base 6/1



Analysis: #1 Malibu Moonshine has not won a race since February but he did run into repeat winners in 3 of his last 6 starts and has shown he can get a marathon distance. He won the Pleasant Colony over the main track here at today's distance back in '07. No doubt he has lost a step or two in the last year, but I'll take a stab he can regain his form with the stretch out if we catch most of his 12/1 ML.



#4 Atoned was not a threat in a fourth place finish on the turf at Keeneland, racing wide much of the trip. The winner of the race was Rahystrada, who came back to win the River City (G3) on Friday at Churchill Downs at 57/1. He won the Nasty n Bold two back going 1 1/2 miles in the slop at Belmont Park. He has finished first or second in nine stakes including winning a Grade 3. The 1 3/4 miles is a long trip to be holding a ticket on a 4/5 shot.



Wagering

WIN: #1 to win at 6/1 or better.

EX: 1,4 / 1,3,4,7

TRI: 1,4 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,3,4,7,8



Live Longshots:

These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.



Aqueduct

R1: #8 Coney Island 8/1

R2: #2 Inheritor 8/1

R3: #3 My Luckey Penney 8/1

R5: #6 Honest Wildcat 8/1

R6: #1 Mesa Fresca / #1a In This Life 10/1

R7: #9 Great Emperor 15/1

R7: #10 Keeping the Honor 12/1

R8: #1 Malibu Moonshine 12/1

R8: #3 Jane?s Kid 10/1

R9: #7 Casa Di Vino 10/1

R9: #8 Timely Command 8/1



Good luck today!