NFL Week 2 ? Hot Dogs
(Sep 9)
By Simon Milham ? Britain?s top Football Handicapper and Tradesports.com columnist.
You?ve got to love this game, especially in the second week of the season when line-makers invariably overreact to the Week 1 results.
The odds-makers in Las Vegas have taken Buffalo?s 31-0 trouncing of the New England Patriots at face value and make the Bills 2.5-point favourites for the first of a two-game road trip to Jacksonville. A win here would set them up nicely for what could develop into a crunch early season battle for the AFC East supremacy next week in Miami.
One of the highlights last week was Sam Adams? rumbling interception return for a 37-yard touchdown to effectively kill the game at 21-0. But the Patriots made life easy for the Bills ? Tom Brady threw four interceptions and the Patriots? flimsy run defense failed to show up, allowing Travis Henry to rush for 86 yards.
The Bills may have improved on defense, but they will need to be at their best to down Jacksonville, who are smarting from turning a 17-0 lead into a 24-23 defeat at the hands of the Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars have a much better running game than the Patriots and although it is unlikely quarterback Mark Brunell will have back-to-back stellar days (23 of 27 for 272 yards and two touchdowns), the Bills must stop Fred Taylor who had a combined 122 yards (74 on the ground).
The Jaguars are a formidable force at home and started last season 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. They are 1-0 ATS after week 1 and could make that 2-0 if the Bills don?t manage to shut down the West Coast offense, which should help detract from a weak offensive line.
Former Philadelphia DE Hugh Douglas will make life difficult for the Bills, though linebackers Keith Mitchell and Mike Peterson will have their work cut out if Drew Bledsoe is given as much time to pass as the Patriots? line did.
The Overs/Unders points total line is set at 42.5. The tentative selection is to play the Unders.
Chicago was another who simply made too many mistakes last week, giving up five turnovers and 371 yards to San Francisco in a woeful 49-7 defeat. Their offense looked one-dimensional and new QB Kordell Stewart ? who was third choice on the Bears? pres-season shopping list anyway behind Jake Plummer and Brian Griese ? wasn?t patient enough and despite his running ability, he still lacks passing accuracy.
But on Sunday, they have a chance to redeem themselves against one of the more impressive Week 1 winners, when they travel to Minnesota, who downed the Packers 30-25 in Green Bay.
The line-makers have the Vikings as 8.5-point favourites, which, on the face of it, looks a sensible call, given the respective merits of their week 1 results. Look a bit deeper into this NFC North division clash and you will find that no matter what the respective strengths and weaknesses of the two sides over the years, their games are invariably close. Indeed, only twice over the last 11 seasons has the margin of victory in the regular season been bigger than six points (Vikings won 48-22 as 16.5-point favourites in 1998 and last year when taking it 25-7).
The future of the Bears will be to find a way of allowing Stewart to use his abilities and manage the team. The philosophy will remain the same ? smash-mouth, field position football while limiting mistakes and relying on their defense to win games.
For the Bears to cover the spread on Sunday, RB Anthony Thomas must be less tentative and hit the holes faster and harder. He is very good between the tackles, even though he lacks speed and elusiveness to be deemed a premier back. The Bears O-line is no better than average and though they have an outstanding centre in Olin Kreutz, if this team does not improve fast, he will regret not taking a lucrative offer in Miami.
With left tackle Rex Tucker lost for the season with an ankle injury, the Bears offense has been weakened badly, so much will hang on how the Brian Urlacher-led defense shuts down opposing offenses.
The Bears usually raise their game in the Twin Cities and the hope is that they will do so again. They may not win, but if they keep it close, head coach Dick Jauron may keep his job for another week at least. Much as I detest playing the Unders/Overs lines, it is set too high at 46.5.
The New York Jets are made surprising 3.5-point dogs when they entertain the Miami Dolphins, who have a poor recent record in the Big Apple, but they are certainly better than their 21-20 home defeat to the Houston Texans suggests. Ricky Williams should be able to run all over the Jets? defense, but many will give this game a miss. The Dolphins should win, but then again, they should have been two touchdowns better than the Texans. It could go either way, so look elsewhere for value.
Washington played poorly against the Jets, despite eeking out a 16-13 win last week. They have had three extra days to prepare for their trip to Atlanta (1-0), who won 27-13 in Dallas.
The win came at a price, however, as last year?s leading receiver Brian Finneran broke two bones in his left hand.
The loss of QB Michael Vick with a broken leg in pre-season meant that the Falcons? early season hopes lie with Doug Johnson, who rose to the task in Texas Stadium, throwing two touchdowns and running in another.
He should again enjoy success against Washington, but so will his opposite number Patrick Ramsey, who will look to find ex-Jet WR Laveranues Coles often in three-wide receiver sets. Ramsey has a strong arm and could flourish in Steve Spurrier?s pass-happy offense.
The Skins have a difficult road schedule which includes games at Miami, Buffalo and December trips to Chicago and New York (Giants). If they have realistic aims of making the playoffs, they must win in Atlanta and the 3.5 points on offer look a steal, because if they keep it close, their solid defense might just win it for them.
Milham?s Week 2 Dog Delights:
Jaguars +2.5 (Under 42.5), Bears +8.5 (Under 46.5), Redskins +3.5 (Over 39.5).
Dog Delights are 3-0 for the season (100 per cent)
Fab Favourites are 2-1 for the season (66 per cent)
All selections 83.3%
Simon Milham is a columnist with Tradesports.com . TradeSports is a person-to-person sports trading exchange where members wager together without a bookie and ZERO VIG everyday.
(Sep 9)
By Simon Milham ? Britain?s top Football Handicapper and Tradesports.com columnist.
You?ve got to love this game, especially in the second week of the season when line-makers invariably overreact to the Week 1 results.
The odds-makers in Las Vegas have taken Buffalo?s 31-0 trouncing of the New England Patriots at face value and make the Bills 2.5-point favourites for the first of a two-game road trip to Jacksonville. A win here would set them up nicely for what could develop into a crunch early season battle for the AFC East supremacy next week in Miami.
One of the highlights last week was Sam Adams? rumbling interception return for a 37-yard touchdown to effectively kill the game at 21-0. But the Patriots made life easy for the Bills ? Tom Brady threw four interceptions and the Patriots? flimsy run defense failed to show up, allowing Travis Henry to rush for 86 yards.
The Bills may have improved on defense, but they will need to be at their best to down Jacksonville, who are smarting from turning a 17-0 lead into a 24-23 defeat at the hands of the Carolina Panthers. The Jaguars have a much better running game than the Patriots and although it is unlikely quarterback Mark Brunell will have back-to-back stellar days (23 of 27 for 272 yards and two touchdowns), the Bills must stop Fred Taylor who had a combined 122 yards (74 on the ground).
The Jaguars are a formidable force at home and started last season 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS. They are 1-0 ATS after week 1 and could make that 2-0 if the Bills don?t manage to shut down the West Coast offense, which should help detract from a weak offensive line.
Former Philadelphia DE Hugh Douglas will make life difficult for the Bills, though linebackers Keith Mitchell and Mike Peterson will have their work cut out if Drew Bledsoe is given as much time to pass as the Patriots? line did.
The Overs/Unders points total line is set at 42.5. The tentative selection is to play the Unders.
Chicago was another who simply made too many mistakes last week, giving up five turnovers and 371 yards to San Francisco in a woeful 49-7 defeat. Their offense looked one-dimensional and new QB Kordell Stewart ? who was third choice on the Bears? pres-season shopping list anyway behind Jake Plummer and Brian Griese ? wasn?t patient enough and despite his running ability, he still lacks passing accuracy.
But on Sunday, they have a chance to redeem themselves against one of the more impressive Week 1 winners, when they travel to Minnesota, who downed the Packers 30-25 in Green Bay.
The line-makers have the Vikings as 8.5-point favourites, which, on the face of it, looks a sensible call, given the respective merits of their week 1 results. Look a bit deeper into this NFC North division clash and you will find that no matter what the respective strengths and weaknesses of the two sides over the years, their games are invariably close. Indeed, only twice over the last 11 seasons has the margin of victory in the regular season been bigger than six points (Vikings won 48-22 as 16.5-point favourites in 1998 and last year when taking it 25-7).
The future of the Bears will be to find a way of allowing Stewart to use his abilities and manage the team. The philosophy will remain the same ? smash-mouth, field position football while limiting mistakes and relying on their defense to win games.
For the Bears to cover the spread on Sunday, RB Anthony Thomas must be less tentative and hit the holes faster and harder. He is very good between the tackles, even though he lacks speed and elusiveness to be deemed a premier back. The Bears O-line is no better than average and though they have an outstanding centre in Olin Kreutz, if this team does not improve fast, he will regret not taking a lucrative offer in Miami.
With left tackle Rex Tucker lost for the season with an ankle injury, the Bears offense has been weakened badly, so much will hang on how the Brian Urlacher-led defense shuts down opposing offenses.
The Bears usually raise their game in the Twin Cities and the hope is that they will do so again. They may not win, but if they keep it close, head coach Dick Jauron may keep his job for another week at least. Much as I detest playing the Unders/Overs lines, it is set too high at 46.5.
The New York Jets are made surprising 3.5-point dogs when they entertain the Miami Dolphins, who have a poor recent record in the Big Apple, but they are certainly better than their 21-20 home defeat to the Houston Texans suggests. Ricky Williams should be able to run all over the Jets? defense, but many will give this game a miss. The Dolphins should win, but then again, they should have been two touchdowns better than the Texans. It could go either way, so look elsewhere for value.
Washington played poorly against the Jets, despite eeking out a 16-13 win last week. They have had three extra days to prepare for their trip to Atlanta (1-0), who won 27-13 in Dallas.
The win came at a price, however, as last year?s leading receiver Brian Finneran broke two bones in his left hand.
The loss of QB Michael Vick with a broken leg in pre-season meant that the Falcons? early season hopes lie with Doug Johnson, who rose to the task in Texas Stadium, throwing two touchdowns and running in another.
He should again enjoy success against Washington, but so will his opposite number Patrick Ramsey, who will look to find ex-Jet WR Laveranues Coles often in three-wide receiver sets. Ramsey has a strong arm and could flourish in Steve Spurrier?s pass-happy offense.
The Skins have a difficult road schedule which includes games at Miami, Buffalo and December trips to Chicago and New York (Giants). If they have realistic aims of making the playoffs, they must win in Atlanta and the 3.5 points on offer look a steal, because if they keep it close, their solid defense might just win it for them.
Milham?s Week 2 Dog Delights:
Jaguars +2.5 (Under 42.5), Bears +8.5 (Under 46.5), Redskins +3.5 (Over 39.5).
Dog Delights are 3-0 for the season (100 per cent)
Fab Favourites are 2-1 for the season (66 per cent)
All selections 83.3%
Simon Milham is a columnist with Tradesports.com . TradeSports is a person-to-person sports trading exchange where members wager together without a bookie and ZERO VIG everyday.
