How do you decide which side to bet? (ok I have nothing to do right now)

[Doctor Baseball]

This is a question I always wanted to ask. Since Football is a one day 16 times a week sport (ok ok 2 with the MNF) I dont feel confortable using trends as I am during NBA or MLB, also I have seen from several years that people bet according to how a team did the year before. Another thing is that people only "handicap" the QB, WR and RB (unless it is an extraordinary defense team as ravens 2 years ago). I remember how a friend and I always made fun from the newbies last 2 seasons, you really want to know their top plays week after week? Minne, Indi and Rams. Well before I lost my question?s point, I havent heard anyone (not from here, I mean face to face dialogue) who likes Cinci, Ravens and Kansas (not that I do) but I always say that on the NFL any home team (yeah even the bengals) getting points worths a shot, but I guess that people that bet 100% just as fun and only at football never like to play the bad team, they always prefer to take the risk laying the chalk without taking into account other stuff, thats why I really wanna know how do you pick your bets

 

[GM]

The people you meet in real life...the majority of them study nothing. They see Team A is favored over Team B. They decide that Team A is the better team, and that's who they will bet on. In fact most people look at a game and decide "Do I want Team A, or do I want to bet on another game instead?". Team B is not even considered (except maybe when Team B is their favorite team). They don't think the pointspread is important, they just want the "best" team.

They can bet for weeks or years, and learn nothing...just remembering all the bad times that they got "unlucky" and the "bad" team won (or covered). Then they give up, saying the sport is fixed, or it's impossible to figure out the NFL...when they never even gave the underdogs a chance, or learned what it is exactly that we are trying to do. If it was simply a matter of determining who is "better", we would all be millionaires doing this. All you have to do is read the left hand column of the odds list and you can tell who is generally "better"... not rocket science.

If you don't learn anything from history, you are doomed to repeat it.

I LOVE it when people say "Don't expect a bad team to do good things". Why not?? I'd rather figure out which "bad" teams are going to do good things this week, and profit from figuring that out.

Around here, you get a lot more informed opinion. Most of the people here, I don't think they'd have ever found this forum unless they were already pretty sharp and serious about what they are doing.

Everyone's got their own methods. Personally, I completely ignore any team-related statistic that goes back more than 3 or 4 years. The fact X beat Y 19 times in a row from 1985 to 1994 means absolutely nothing to me. Last year, I consider it a bit, but after a few weeks you realize a lot of last year's tendencies no longer apply. Mostly I look for psychological edges...places where a team may give less than full effort, or more than usual effort. Teams that have been embarrassed in recent weeks, or have become overconfident, or have not played enough quality opposition lately and have gotten soft. That, and personnel mismatches, are what I consider the most.

 

[Doctor Baseball]

GM, thats what IM FHOKING TALKING ABOUT, did you just read my mind?. I dont know if you think the same but ABSOLUTELY a team is better than the other one almost always, but maybe someone have to tell the rookies (im talking abput almost all the guys from my sportsbook) that thats why vegas made ODDS. I know a lot of guys from here bet on titans and im not trying to bash anyone but is like last week "gift" toutans -3 against dallas, you should saw the faces of everyone even the cowboys fans (Im from Mexico and I can swear that 70% of the fans are cowbaoys fans, The latin american team) bet titans. Tats why I put the bengals, ravens and KC as an example for this week. Other thing that I always like to do is to make a road favorite line if they were at home. For example titans should had been a 10 points favorite against dallas at home, just as chiefs etc. etc. But when people see a low line on a "better" team on the road, they just said "they must win". I cant believe that the first reply was from someone that thinks just as I do, BTW do you like the over on saints/lions?

 

[GM]

JL,

Glad you liked my response. Re: NO/Det total. It's not something that jumps out at me. I really don't have a strong opinion on it. Detroit has not given up fewer than 30 points yet; New Orleans has not allowed fewer than 20...so that looks nice. I guess I am concerned about Detroit scoring in this game...this may be the best defence they have faced yet, as odd as it sounds considering the pts NO has given up. If you guarantee it, I will put $5 on it just for you. LOL

 

[Doctor Baseball]

Hey Gm, nothing relate to football, but I need to ask, as I saw you are from Canada, do you know (I think his name is trevor) from the canucks?. My sister is studing on vancouver and the lady she is living with is the cousin of trevor?s wife, she told the guy that I like gambling, and Im thinking very seriously on asking her to tell trevor when he thinks they are going to win or lost , maybe I shouldnt put that comment here right?. By the way put one zero before your your 5 dll bet, I mean bet 50 dlls, we will cash

 

[Doctor Baseball]

Sorry I mean AFTER, damn coronas they are going to kill me.

 

[GM]

LOL!

Jessy man, you make me laugh. Do I know Trevor from Vancouver? That's like me saying do you know Juan from Mexico City?? Oh ya, he's about 5'8, dark hair, speaks Spanish. LOL Just havin' fun with ya man.

I guess you mean Trevor Linden? No, can't say I know him. Actually, I don't think he's with the Canucks anymore. For a Canadian I know very little about hockey. I never ever bet it, I hate betting on hockey. I'm also the only Canadian who can't skate. Basketball is my game (to play), but football is my game to bet! Vancouver is almost 5000km from here, it's in the Pacific Time zone, I am in the Eastern Time zone. Closest NFL team to me is the Buffalo Bills.... I usually get to 1 or 2 Bills games a year.

Say Hi to Juan for me if you see him man.

 

[Doctor Baseball]

DAMN IT, this spanish translating to english stuff its really making me going crazy, but you were right I was talking about the canucks Trevor "who the **** knows his last name" player, my sister told me that he is on every panoramic and that he is a very good player. C?mon man how can you think I was talking about an average citizen , In fact he is going to sign my canucks jersey (god know who the **** in Mexico will recognize his sign) Im also not a big hockey gambler, but maybe with a little "inside information" from Trevor things will go right.

 

[GM]

Well, as far as hockey goes I am just a fan, not a bettor. I know Trevor Linden WAS with Vancouver for years and he was worshipped there. They traded him to the NY Islanders, and then to Montreal I think. For all I know he's back in Vancouver, but who knows. Like I said, I follow it for fun only and I find it impossible to handicap. He was a good player and a legend in Vancouver but is pretty old now and on the downside of his career as I understand it. I'm a Toronto Maple Leafs fan....all I can say about them is I don't think they are headed anywhere but down! Always a so-so team, but they never seem to have what it takes to win the really big games. And they haven't won the Stanley Cup since 1967, when I was 2 months old.

But hey....this is a football forum! I've had fun tonight JL. Hope you didn't get too upset. We all know English isn't your first language, but you seem like a really good guy and you made me smile a few times. French is my second language, and your English is MUCHO MUCHO better than my French!!

Good luck tomorrow. Go Saints/Lions Over!!

 

[Doctor Baseball]

Well thats not what my bookie said, for him it had only been tears and tears day after day, well not counting my tennesse, arizona, minnesota, memphis etc etc todays plays. Man what a ****ing day. You want to laugh? who about the mail I just receive from "the best handiccaper ever on football" releasing a month "just" for $699 dlls, Its a gift right?. At this point every corona I had drunk only its making me feel to bet more and more on the over so what the F*** gimmie the over for a dime (I can pay the service and still have 300 on my bankroll)