How does Dallas cover?

[acehistr8]

Looking for someone to help me out with this game. I do not see it being close. This kid Hall who filled in for Kearse had 3 sacks and is thought to be one of the top defensive rookies.

The Titans have McNair, Mason, Dyson, George and more.

The Cowboys have Carter, Ismail and some other folks.

Am I not looking deep enough?

-3 looks like a gift.

 

[TheShrimp]

Every week there seems to be some thread (or at least one) saying "Why is SO-AND-SO ONLY a X point favorite over S0-AND-SO?"

I always find a good reason for it, whether its philly/wash this week or stl/den last week.

But this line, ACE, is crazy to me. When I wrote down my lines last sunday, I thought it would come out at 6. I'm rarely off by 2.5 points, especially not when the line is so low.

So, I'm stumped. I bet it. If its a sucker line, then I'm a sucker. It's going up, too. Now 3.5 (-120) at SIA. The next step is -4.

GL

 

[Hooks]

Aces - Remember this is the N.F.L. Shit happens every week including the preseason anymore.
Dallas looked like :moon: last week. They absolutely helped the books by knocking out parlays and teasers.
A few possible reasons the Cowgirls cover ;

1 - Pro Football Weekly has Tenn. over Dallas in their staff selections 11-0, 100%:nono:

2 - A couple of Nolans systems, point Dallas' way.
Dallas didn't cover last week.
They fit his go with last place teams first 5 weeks.(value)

3 - The public saw Dallas lose to an expansion team, they also know Tenn. beat a good Philly team.

4 - Dallas is back at home.

5 - Emmett should have a better game running the ball.

6- Getting points at home.

Other reasons may arise as more info comes out the rest of the week,keep reading.

Hope this makes sense

 

[acehistr8]

Funny I have the same thing. 21-15 is how I saw this game.

 

[theGibber1]

Nolans system does not acount for Q. Carter.

The absolute worst starting QB in Football!!!

Titans -3

 

[acehistr8]

Thats the thing, systems are great to a certain extent. But when you analyze the "weapons" Dallas is dealing with, you arent left with much. And I do not agree that Emmit should have a better game running the ball. Kearse's replacement had 3 sacks in his fill in time.

 

[mw]

Dallas's weapon is its OL. One of the best run-blocking OL's in the NFL. If they can run the ball and play D, they can win. It's not very complicated.

Personally, I expected to see Tennessee favored by 4, so this line surprised me a bit, too. Will probably venture a small play on the Cowboys at +4, if it gets there.

Look at what happened with last week's game -- six weeks ago, the line for the Houston/Dallas opener was -4. It moved all the way to 9. The Cowboys got hyped. So, they flopped in game 1. We didn't really learn anything we didn't already know. Carter sucks, rushing game is excellent, and defense is excellent. The hype produced what appears to be an overreaction in the other direction.

 

[Kronheim]

You hit the nail right on the head ace, systems are great tools to use in handicapping, but you really need to factor in other things as well to 'filter' your plays. This line of Ten-3 I simply do not understand.

Systems may provide reasons to play Dallas, but all other factors point to Tenn. Dallas demonstrated thier lack of skill, smarts and heart last week, picking up right where they left off last season. Tenn looked damn good vs. the talented Eagles. Tenn is clearly the better team.

Is the line based on bettors overestimating the impact of Kearse's injusry? I think not, especially given the promising stats replacement Hall has put up. Also, Dallas starting ML Dat Nguyen is out which may balance perceptions a bit.

So I just don't know what to make of this line. I played it at -3 early Monday morning, it was up to -3.5 the next day, then down to -3 again, where it still sits now at some books.

I know the linesmakers rarely make mistakes, especially in the NFL, so I'm a bit concerned about this play. Will definately ride it out though, and perhaps look for a middle on Sunday morning after the public has had their way with the line.

best of luck y'all

K.

 

[pt1gard]

kearse?

kearse?

I recall john clayton talking about kearse last year, saying, "he's a shell of what he was and hadnt had a sack in a century and is easily blocked by anyone these days" im roughly paraphrasing .. but will some Titan fan address that comment ....

thanx, gregg

 

[gardenweasel]

and what about that load on the other side

and what about that load on the other side

kevin carter....all this attention on kearse,and carter is still the invisible man....he may be one of the most over-rated players in football.....the rams knew what they were doing.

 

[Hooks]

Ace what does a replacements 3 sacks have to do with emmit running the rock

 

[vchipsliu]

SIA is Titans -4.5 right now.
If you like Titans , you have to grab it earlier.
(some books still @ Titans -3)
I do believe the public will be on the Titans.

Q who? Q Carter???
Last week I told myself I was better than him