How Penn State can make the NCAA Tournament
Just two-and-a-half weeks ago, an NCAA Tournament berth seemed impossible for a Penn State team that sat at 3-5 in the Big Ten and 13-8 overall.
Since then, the Nittany Lions are 4-1, with the sole loss coming on the road to No. 4 Michigan State in a game the Nittany Lions led by 12 in the second half.
With recent wins over No. 14 Ohio State and Maryland, Penn State has now put itself in a position where it can play its way into the NCAA Tournament ? though it will take a lot of work.
Penn State?s current RPI rank, one of the key metrics the selection committee has looked at in year?s past when awarding at-large bids, is 86. Usually, that rank for tournament teams is around 60 and under. Anything bigger than that, and a team is usually left out of the ?Big Dance.?
The question now becomes, does the committee weigh modern metrics more heavily to help make its at-large decisions this season? It?s been said for quite a while by many college basketball analysts that the RPI is a dated system to use, like the BCS was in college football. But you can?t really know if the committee is beginning to share that view until after they make their selections.
If they are, the Nittany Lions are in better shape. Penn State?s Basketball Power Index (BPI) ranking currently sits at 40. The BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Penn State?s KenPom rating is 44, ahead of a few teams (Syracuse, USC, Marquette, SMU, NC State, Arkansas and Nebraska) that ESPN Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi has either ahead of the Nittany Lions in his ?bubble watch? or in the field of 68 itself.
The Nittany Lions are also No. 45 in the Jeff Sagarin Ratings.
Let?s take a look at how Penn State can play its way to higher rankings across these metrics?specifically the RPI?and into the NCAA Tournament.
Step One: Don?t lose to Illinois
On paper, this is the simplest task to complete in Penn State?s quest for an NCAA Tournament berth.
The Fighting Illini are just 12-12 (2-9 in Big Ten) on the season, but trips to Champaign haven?t been kind to the Nittany Lions historically. Last season?s win at the State Farm Center for Penn State was its first win at Illinois since the 2008-09 season.
Coach Brad Underwood?s team has played better in recent weeks as well. Illinois had split two of its last four games entering Thursday, with one loss coming in competitive fashion on the road against No. 14 Ohio State.
All that being said, this is a game Penn State should win. Its starting five is much better than the Illini?s starting five. The Nittany Lions have difference makers, like Tony Carr or Josh Reaves, Illinois simply does not.
With bad losses in conference play to Indiana, Minnesota and Wisconsin already counting against it, Penn State cannot afford to drop another game to a team outside the RPI Top-100.
Step Two: Take two of three games from matchups with No. 3 Purdue, No. 14 Ohio State and No. 20 Michigan.
These three games make up, without a doubt, the toughest three-game stretch Penn State will endure this season. That presents both opportunity and danger for Pat Chambers? team.
The opportunity comes in the form of collecting wins over high quality opponent?s that will greatly boost the Nittany Lions? resume in the eye of the committee.
Step Three:Beat Nebraska on the road
Similar to the State Farm Center, Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln has been a house of horrors for the Nittany Lions in recent seasons.
The Cornhuskers have won all three meetings in the building by an average of 15 points, including last year?s 82-66 decision.
have this marked down as one of those must-have games for Penn State because Nebraska is its biggest competition for an at-large spot.
Right now, the Big Ten has four locks to make the tournament, Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. With the conference being very top-heavy this year, it?s unlikely it gets six at-large berths.
Hypothetically, that leaves one spot for two teams: Penn State and Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have the easier of the two remaining schedules, so they?re a good bet to get to the 12-win mark in conference play.
A win in Lincoln would see Penn State sweep the season series, could see them leapfrog Tim Miles? bunch in the bubble pecking order and give them another RPI Top-100 win.
Step Four: Perform well at the Big Ten Tournament
One win at the Big Ten Tournament might be enough to secure an at-large selection if the Nittany Lions are able to go 4-1 down the stretch in the regular season.
If Penn State only wins three of the remaining five regular season games, the conference tournament becomes more important.
In this scenario, Penn State would probably have to win at-least two games at Madison Square Garden to get a tournament berth. A close second round loss to a team like Michigan State wouldn?t be the end of the world, but winning that type of game would make it really tough for the committee to leave the Nittany Lions at home.
In either case, the fact the bigger wins for the Nittany Lions would come in the second half of its schedule is also a plus because it shows Penn State is playing its best basketball at the right time and makes them a threat to win a few games once it gets into the NCAA Tournament.
When handing out at-large bids, they?re not usually given to teams just to make up the numbers. They?re awarded to teams who the committee thinks has the capability to make some noise and give the tournament the best matchups possible.
Even though all of this is hypothetical speak, the path for an at-large bid is there for Penn State and it starts this weekend in Champaign.
Just two-and-a-half weeks ago, an NCAA Tournament berth seemed impossible for a Penn State team that sat at 3-5 in the Big Ten and 13-8 overall.
Since then, the Nittany Lions are 4-1, with the sole loss coming on the road to No. 4 Michigan State in a game the Nittany Lions led by 12 in the second half.
With recent wins over No. 14 Ohio State and Maryland, Penn State has now put itself in a position where it can play its way into the NCAA Tournament ? though it will take a lot of work.
Penn State?s current RPI rank, one of the key metrics the selection committee has looked at in year?s past when awarding at-large bids, is 86. Usually, that rank for tournament teams is around 60 and under. Anything bigger than that, and a team is usually left out of the ?Big Dance.?
The question now becomes, does the committee weigh modern metrics more heavily to help make its at-large decisions this season? It?s been said for quite a while by many college basketball analysts that the RPI is a dated system to use, like the BCS was in college football. But you can?t really know if the committee is beginning to share that view until after they make their selections.
If they are, the Nittany Lions are in better shape. Penn State?s Basketball Power Index (BPI) ranking currently sits at 40. The BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.
Penn State?s KenPom rating is 44, ahead of a few teams (Syracuse, USC, Marquette, SMU, NC State, Arkansas and Nebraska) that ESPN Bracketology expert Joe Lunardi has either ahead of the Nittany Lions in his ?bubble watch? or in the field of 68 itself.
The Nittany Lions are also No. 45 in the Jeff Sagarin Ratings.
Let?s take a look at how Penn State can play its way to higher rankings across these metrics?specifically the RPI?and into the NCAA Tournament.
Step One: Don?t lose to Illinois
On paper, this is the simplest task to complete in Penn State?s quest for an NCAA Tournament berth.
The Fighting Illini are just 12-12 (2-9 in Big Ten) on the season, but trips to Champaign haven?t been kind to the Nittany Lions historically. Last season?s win at the State Farm Center for Penn State was its first win at Illinois since the 2008-09 season.
Coach Brad Underwood?s team has played better in recent weeks as well. Illinois had split two of its last four games entering Thursday, with one loss coming in competitive fashion on the road against No. 14 Ohio State.
All that being said, this is a game Penn State should win. Its starting five is much better than the Illini?s starting five. The Nittany Lions have difference makers, like Tony Carr or Josh Reaves, Illinois simply does not.
With bad losses in conference play to Indiana, Minnesota and Wisconsin already counting against it, Penn State cannot afford to drop another game to a team outside the RPI Top-100.
Step Two: Take two of three games from matchups with No. 3 Purdue, No. 14 Ohio State and No. 20 Michigan.
These three games make up, without a doubt, the toughest three-game stretch Penn State will endure this season. That presents both opportunity and danger for Pat Chambers? team.
The opportunity comes in the form of collecting wins over high quality opponent?s that will greatly boost the Nittany Lions? resume in the eye of the committee.
Step Three:Beat Nebraska on the road
Similar to the State Farm Center, Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln has been a house of horrors for the Nittany Lions in recent seasons.
The Cornhuskers have won all three meetings in the building by an average of 15 points, including last year?s 82-66 decision.
have this marked down as one of those must-have games for Penn State because Nebraska is its biggest competition for an at-large spot.
Right now, the Big Ten has four locks to make the tournament, Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan. With the conference being very top-heavy this year, it?s unlikely it gets six at-large berths.
Hypothetically, that leaves one spot for two teams: Penn State and Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have the easier of the two remaining schedules, so they?re a good bet to get to the 12-win mark in conference play.
A win in Lincoln would see Penn State sweep the season series, could see them leapfrog Tim Miles? bunch in the bubble pecking order and give them another RPI Top-100 win.
Step Four: Perform well at the Big Ten Tournament
One win at the Big Ten Tournament might be enough to secure an at-large selection if the Nittany Lions are able to go 4-1 down the stretch in the regular season.
If Penn State only wins three of the remaining five regular season games, the conference tournament becomes more important.
In this scenario, Penn State would probably have to win at-least two games at Madison Square Garden to get a tournament berth. A close second round loss to a team like Michigan State wouldn?t be the end of the world, but winning that type of game would make it really tough for the committee to leave the Nittany Lions at home.
In either case, the fact the bigger wins for the Nittany Lions would come in the second half of its schedule is also a plus because it shows Penn State is playing its best basketball at the right time and makes them a threat to win a few games once it gets into the NCAA Tournament.
When handing out at-large bids, they?re not usually given to teams just to make up the numbers. They?re awarded to teams who the committee thinks has the capability to make some noise and give the tournament the best matchups possible.
Even though all of this is hypothetical speak, the path for an at-large bid is there for Penn State and it starts this weekend in Champaign.
