How to find value - a primer - a must

[axp59]

I?m confusing even the seasoned cappers when I start posting value. Understanding value is a must for anyone that wants to make money in this business. My examples below use -110 juice and I use $110 amount for bets just to make it simple. When I post my values on my threads, I use $1.1 just because it makes it easier for me to calculate. Please remember, VALUE HUNTING IS NOT PICKING GAME WINNERS. It?s a technique to decide what game is worth risking your money on AFTER YOU?VE ALREADY FULLY CAPPED A GAME & ALREADY CHOSE YOUR PICK
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
STEP 1:<o></o>
<o></o>
Cap your games. It makes no difference how you cap games. Are you a trend, fundamental or statistical analyst? Do you flip a coin. Doesn't matter how you determine your pick. <o></o>
<o></o>
e.g.<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm1 TEAM A -3 vs TEAM B<o></o>
<o></o>
I pick TEAM A -3(-110)<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm2 TEAM C +7.5 vs TEAM D<o></o>
<o></o>
I Pick TEAM C +7.5(-110)<o></o>
<o></o>
STEP 2:<o></o>
<o></o>
As you can see, I have 2 games I want to play but I'm AXP59 and I don't play more than one game a day (sure Ax, whatever you say). Which game do I put my 1 full unit on? Team A -3 or Team C +7.5? Which has more value? Well, this is where experience comes in. Assign a probability (in %) for each side of your game.<o></o>
<o></o>
e.g.<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm1<o></o>
<o></o>
TEAM A -3 (55%)<o></o>
TEAM B +3 (40%)<o></o>
<o></o>
Hey Ax, that doesn't equal 100%. Exactly! I think there's a 5% chance it falls right on the number!<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm2<o></o>
<o></o>
TEAM C +7.5 (55%)<o></o>
TEAM D -7.5 (45%)<o></o>
<o></o>
Notice this equals 100%? No chance in hell this lands on the number.<o></o>
<o></o>
Step 3:<o></o>
<o></o>
It?s time to calculate for value. What you did in step 2 was say "If Gm1 was played 100 times, TEAM A covers 55% of the time, TEAM B covers 40% of the time and the game will push 5% of the time". Well let's do the math.<o></o>
<o></o>
I lay $110 each time on Gm1 and win 55 games, lose 40 games and push 5 games.<o></o>
<o></o>
win 55 games = $5500<o></o>
lose 40 games = -$4400<o></o>
push 5 games = $0<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm1 value = $1100 (if you see this in my thread, it would be $11)<o></o>
<o></o>
I lay $110 each time on Gm2 and win 55 games, lose 45 games<o></o>
<o></o>
win 55 games = $5500<o></o>
lose 45 games = -$4950<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm2 value = $550 (if you see this in my thread, it would be $5.50)<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm1 value vs Gm2 value<o></o>
<o></o>
I'll play Gm1<o></o>
<o></o>
Parting notes:<o></o>
<o></o>
Well Ax, they don't play the game 100 times, it's just this one time?<o></o>
So true but think about how many bets you'll be making in your career as a handicapper. If you stick to finding value with each wager, you will end up on top.<o></o>
<o></o>
This applies to any sport and any juice. Simply recalculate at the different ML.
<o></o>
I put this together rather quickly so please point out any mistakes if you find them.
<o></o>
Hope this helps.

 

[pkkingster15]

while reading: :0corn

while watching said bet: kurby :director:

after said strategy is taken into account: :00hour :mj06:

 

[Ools]

I?m confusing even the seasoned cappers when I start posting value. Understanding value is a must for anyone that wants to make money in this business. My examples below use -110 juice and I use $110 amount for bets just to make it simple. When I post my values on my threads, I use $1.1 just because it makes it easier for me to calculate. Please remember, VALUE HUNTING IS NOT PICKING GAME WINNERS. It?s a technique to decide what game is worth risking your money on AFTER YOU?VE ALREADY FULLY CAPPED A GAME & ALREADY CHOSE YOUR PICK
<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>
STEP 1:<o></o>
<o></o>
Cap your games. It makes no difference how you cap games. Are you a trend, fundamental or statistical analyst? Do you flip a coin. Doesn't matter how you determine your pick. <o></o>
<o></o>
e.g.<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm1 TEAM A -3 vs TEAM B<o></o>
<o></o>
I pick TEAM A -3(-110)<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm2 TEAM C +7.5 vs TEAM D<o></o>
<o></o>
I Pick TEAM C +7.5(-110)<o></o>
<o></o>
STEP 2:<o></o>
<o></o>
As you can see, I have 2 games I want to play but I'm AXP59 and I don't play more than one game a day (sure Ax, whatever you say). Which game do I put my 1 full unit on? Team A -3 or Team C +7.5? Which has more value? Well, this is where experience comes in. Assign a probability (in %) for each side of your game.<o></o>
<o></o>
e.g.<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm1<o></o>
<o></o>
TEAM A -3 (55%)<o></o>
TEAM B +3 (40%)<o></o>
<o></o>
Hey Ax, that doesn't equal 100%. Exactly! I think there's a 5% chance it falls right on the number!<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm2<o></o>
<o></o>
TEAM C +7.5 (55%)<o></o>
TEAM D -7.5 (45%)<o></o>
<o></o>
Notice this equals 100%? No chance in hell this lands on the number.<o></o>
<o></o>
Step 3:<o></o>
<o></o>
It?s time to calculate for value. What you did in step 2 was say "If Gm1 was played 100 times, TEAM A covers 55% of the time, TEAM B covers 40% of the time and the game will push 5% of the time". Well let's do the math.<o></o>
<o></o>
I lay $110 each time on Gm1 and win 55 games, lose 40 games and push 5 games.<o></o>
<o></o>
win 55 games = $5500<o></o>
lose 40 games = -$4400<o></o>
push 5 games = $0<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm1 value = $1100 (if you see this in my thread, it would be $11)<o></o>
<o></o>
I lay $110 each time on Gm2 and win 55 games, lose 45 games<o></o>
<o></o>
win 55 games = $5500<o></o>
lose 45 games = -$4950<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm2 value = $550 (if you see this in my thread, it would be $5.50)<o></o>
<o></o>
Gm1 value vs Gm2 value<o></o>
<o></o>
I'll play Gm1<o></o>
<o></o>
Parting notes:<o></o>
<o></o>
Well Ax, they don't play the game 100 times, it's just this one time?<o></o>
So true but think about how many bets you'll be making in your career as a handicapper. If you stick to finding value with each wager, you will end up on top.<o></o>
<o></o>
This applies to any sport and any juice. Simply recalculate at the different ML.
<o></o>
I put this together rather quickly so please point out any mistakes if you find them.
<o></o>
Hope this helps.

thanks - question:

how have you developed your probability % over the years? in your example it would appear that a 55% probability would be a popular %. Also the potential for a "push" is what has made the one bet have a better probability. Does this normally reduce the chance of betting games with a .5 in the spread? or do you smooth this?

 

[axp59]

thanks - question:

how have you developed your probability % over the years? in your example it would appear that a 55% probability would be a popular %. Also the potential for a "push" is what has made the one bet have a better probability. Does this normally reduce the chance of betting games with a .5 in the spread? or do you smooth this?

Both excellent questions.

developing probability -
After a few seasons, I'm hoping you have enough of your own betting data. I'll use my Celtics as an example. I've bet so many BOS games that I'm hitting over 60% of my BOS plays over the years. I can read BOS games 60% of the time. Before the lines even come out, I already have numbers I'm looking for (I've also blogged about this previously).

e.g.

before lines are released I see BOS -11

Lines come out -11 (60% instantly)
Lines come out -10 (60%+)
Lines come out -12 (60%-)
Lines come out -5 (80%+)

these are just examples of course.

The hook

This is purely subjective. Many people I know "smooth" as you put it. I do consider these depending on my position. It's either a gift of a curse and again, it depends on your position and purely subjective. Personally, I give the hook more weight when it takes me in/out of possesions. For me that's 2.5-3.5, 5.5-6.5 and 8.5-9.5. 1-2-3 possesions respectively. This is for NBA only of course since magic numbers will be different in other sports. Plus possesions are more important because the NBA sucks at the end of the game and your action can get moosed in a heartbeat.

I used 55% as an example because it was easy to calculate. I've confused some enough so I didn't want to use 67.6% to 25.4% and 8% push with -105 and +115 money lines.

I also used 55% since it's a good number to represent my reads on teams. This year, I'm having a good read on DET. I'm reading them about 80% of the time. Now if DET and BOS plays, I'm pretty sure I'm going to hit since I have very good reads on both teams.

God I hope this helps.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Thank you Ax!

Will try to add this to my capping habits.

next question :scared

What's the best way to track my data??

I use Excel and did put a lot of work in it and learned all by myself, but I don't know if I could extract any specific team to analyze my results? I'll try to reconstruct my sheet, but maybe you have other recommendations??

Thanks for all and BOL :toast:
Joe

 

[axp59]

Thank you Ax!

Will try to add this to my capping habits.

next question :scared

What's the best way to track my data??

I use Excel and did put a lot of work in it and learned all by myself, but I don't know if I could extract any specific team to analyze my results? I'll try to reconstruct my sheet, but maybe you have other recommendations??

Thanks for all and BOL :toast:
Joe

Thanks Joe and good question. Going back and extracting that may be a bit tough unless you can somehow convert excel to access db so it becomes easier to query.

My advice going forward. Call every game. Doesn't matter if you play it or not. Call the side and the O/U everyday for every game. Record every call. You will start to see a pattern.

e.g.
I'm hitting 75% when I call POR Under but only 10% when I call POR Over. I'm only 50% calling POR side.

This is very important because even if you cap the game and call it POR Over, it doesn't always mean not to bet. You can fade this 10% and still be in good shape. Although this tells you to stay away from betting POR sides.

I have a spreadsheet that tracks all teams, sides and O/U. It's color coded so anything below the 11/10 line is in red which means don't bother and then as it goes up it changes colors from light green (55%-60%) to dark green (70%+). This is done automatically using conditional formatting of cells in excel.

Excel is a great tool.

Hope this helps and BOL

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Thanks Joe and good question. Going back and extracting that may be a bit tough unless you can somehow convert excel to access db so it becomes easier to query.

My advice going forward. Call every game. Doesn't matter if you play it or not. Call the side and the O/U everyday for every game. Record every call. You will start to see a pattern.

e.g.
I'm hitting 75% when I call POR Under but only 10% when I call POR Over. I'm only 50% calling POR side.

This is very important because even if you cap the game and call it POR Over, it doesn't always mean not to bet. You can fade this 10% and still be in good shape. Although this tells you to stay away from betting POR sides.

I have a spreadsheet that tracks all teams, sides and O/U. It's color coded so anything below the 11/10 line is in red which means don't bother and then as it goes up it changes colors from light green (55%-60%) to dark green (70%+). This is done automatically using conditional formatting of cells in excel.

Excel is a great tool.

Hope this helps and BOL

@excel
Yes it is great! Sometimes it is tough to figure it out, but it's also fun I'll work on it!

@record
I already cap every total, but didn't extract every team. :mj16:

Thanks for the advice! I'll also try to cap all sides, I think it can definitly improve my cappingskills when I change my data mining like you said

 

[axp59]

@excel
Yes it is great! Sometimes it is tough to figure it out, but it's also fun I'll work on it!

@record
I already cap every total, but didn't extract every team. :mj16:

Thanks for the advice! I'll also try to cap all sides, I think it can definitly improve my cappingskills when I change my data mining like you said

BOL Joe, I'm thinking you'll do just fine