So here it is from another guy in other forum who's got this nailed cold
Usually, I'd wait around the two weeks to gather all the information I need but I feel so comfortable with this one, I only needed a few hours of quiet calm and research before I posted it. That post comes right here.
I am taking the Rams +1.5. It opened at -1 and less than 4 hours I am already the beneficiary of a 2.5 pt swing in a very tight spot. I'll take every point.
Here's why:
1. This Rams team is modeled after the Seahawks Super Bowl Winning Team of 2014 and the Eagles of 2018 and their financial formula under the NFL cap rules has worked to perfection.
This is the new formula for success in the NFL:
Pay your QB on a rookie deal and unload at the other positions grabbing up all the prized free agents.
It's how the Seahawks were able to spend so much on the Legion of Boom and how the Eagles paid Wentz virtually nothing in comparison to all their prized positions and offseason signings which lead to a title. BOTH paid off with a Super Bowl Victory and really, that formula has worked 3 times in 5 years if Pete Carroll just calls 4 running plays to end a game.
And here we are again with the Rams. Goff is paid a base salary of $3 million dollars. That is insanity.
That is why the Rams able to sign Suh and all their prized position players in Donald and Cook and Gurley etc. etc. etc. The team is LOADED because it pays Goff virtually nothing. So for all the criticisms Goff gets, his shortcomings are A GOOD thing because if he was an all-world QB, more in the mold of Mahomes, he would already be grumbling or holding out for an extension too soon and the Rams wouldn't be in this position.
Already on ESPN's site, the headline is the Chiefs could make Mahomes the first $200 million dollar man.
That is the WORST headline imaginable for the Chiefs because they are not going to the Super Bowl this year and have two seasons left to get exactly what Mahomes is giving now while paying him nothing!
Even if you look at Super Bowl losers of recent times, the Panthers paid Cam $1 million when he went to the big game and then they dropped off a cliff. Again, this IS the formula for success.
Look at the Seahawks now. Look at the Panthers now after Cam and Russell make what they make. The ENTIRE Legion of Boom is gone and they had to get very creative this year to have the success they had. The Panthers crapped the bed. So the Rams are under increased pressure to get this done NOW before Goff is due to be paid in 2020 as well. There is no more time. And all the talent is here and the trigger must be pulled on a title.
2. Patriots recency bias
This team got every single call down the stretch of that KC game. Every one. The Tom Brady roughing the passer call may have been one of the worst calls in playoff history that was not a deciding call.
All this translates to the Pats winning the Bowl now? Favored!? Right out of the gate as Pats money floods in from the squares and maybe even the sharps?
For me, the Pats have guts and perennial exposure to the big one, but they have not impressed me enough to bet on them against the Rams.
Why?
The Chargers were playing two road games going West-East back-West-back East and were totally unprepared under Lynn. NO adjustments. Nothing. Travel fatigue and no game plan. That was a walk-through for the Pats. That Pats team was preparing for this game while playing that warm-up.
In this game, outside of getting all the calls (many which were correct but still by razor thin margins on a bobble here or a roughing there, they simply won't ALL go your way like this game), if the Pats do not win that coin flip in OT, they do not win this game. Credit to them for the drive but there was no other option. Score 6 or lose. They were brilliant on that drive but again, without the ball in their hands due to a flip, I see them losing, particularly when Mahomes put up 24 in the 4th.
On top of all this, the Chiefs finally had their comeuppance for the flaws in their league worst defense.
The D was so bad in this game, I honestly thought I was watching SMU or East Carolina from the AAC. Defenders were totally nonexistent at times.
And all that (all the calls + vs. a D that continually surrendered points), the Pats barely took it home, also after their D gave up a tying FG with a mere 33 seconds. One stop, a stop the Pats have so often got so many years before, was not even CLOSE to occurring against KC. So this D is vulnerable late CLEARLY.
This Pats team is NOT the Pats team of previous Super Bowls, sits on the back of Brady and the braintrust that is Belichick and the coaching staff and is simply clutch at the perfect times, because they've been here so often.
But there were so many Un-Pats-like things in this game when watching, the leaks that have me moving my money off them and onto the Rams:
24 Chiefs points in the 4th (where Brady was 78-1 with a 14-0 lead on the line)
The WIDE OPEN misdirection play to Watkins where there wasn't a Pats soul in sight, for 38 yards to the 2 with 2:54 left to play. SO crucial a miss.
The constant miscues and penalties by JC Jackson basically rolling out a red carpet down the field for KC. He'll have a rough Super Bowl if he isn't benched like Malcolm was.
Gronk looking like he's one hard tackle from entering a nursing home.
Very un-Patriot like for me in certain spots even in a thrilling win.
So many things went the Pats way. The Edelmen punt that didn't hit him (it didn't but still he went for it and was a millimeter from actually touching it), the KC defensive offsides on the INT that would have ended the game on the final drive, winning the coin toss in OT, and all the fortunate official reviews going the Pats way. ALL of that added up to the last second of last second wins. That's too close for comfort for my money to bet on the Pats.
For all the complaining about the Rams pass interference call (which was beyond awful), in the aggregate, the Pats were MORE fortunate in their game imo.
They were brilliant in many areas, Brady was the GOAT for the millionth time but for me it comes down to the following;
1. Give McVay 2 weeks to counter everything he saw on tape against the Pats and he can do it. He is one of the most brilliant minds in all of football and the one who will take the mantle for the greatest football mind when Bill retires, if ever. In terms of 'creative gamelans', McVay will have the advantage here and will bring enough to the table to win this game with the talent he has.
2. Gronk 6 catches for 79 yards. That is a disgrace given what he is now. He even had 97 vs. KC last time and in both games he came up HUGE down the stretch, almost a replay of himself in both games late. He's not coming up with those plays against the Rams. The Rams are not all world but they are not the worst of the worst like the Chiefs and their secondary who had their putrid shortcomings on full display. Take away ONE Gronk catch of the 6 and the Chiefs win.
3. The Rams Run defense, its Achilles heel has been sensational.
Dallas tried to come in and have Elliot bully them. Result: 20 carries for 47.
The Saints two headed monster in Kamara and Ingram were shut down for 31 and 15.
Those THREE backs in TWO games held down for less than 100 yards and 1 TD in the two biggest games of the year. Sensational. Peaking and shows the Rams staff is paying attention to their deficiencies.
QUOTE"They were brilliant in many areas, Brady was the GOAT for the millionth time "
What the hell game did you watch he threw a pick at the 1 yard line and , threw another pick that would have ended the game if the guy wasn't lined up offside
Seriously watch the games and stop being a Simpleton based on a final score
:00hour
Usually, I'd wait around the two weeks to gather all the information I need but I feel so comfortable with this one, I only needed a few hours of quiet calm and research before I posted it. That post comes right here.
I am taking the Rams +1.5. It opened at -1 and less than 4 hours I am already the beneficiary of a 2.5 pt swing in a very tight spot. I'll take every point.
Here's why:
1. This Rams team is modeled after the Seahawks Super Bowl Winning Team of 2014 and the Eagles of 2018 and their financial formula under the NFL cap rules has worked to perfection.
This is the new formula for success in the NFL:
Pay your QB on a rookie deal and unload at the other positions grabbing up all the prized free agents.
It's how the Seahawks were able to spend so much on the Legion of Boom and how the Eagles paid Wentz virtually nothing in comparison to all their prized positions and offseason signings which lead to a title. BOTH paid off with a Super Bowl Victory and really, that formula has worked 3 times in 5 years if Pete Carroll just calls 4 running plays to end a game.
And here we are again with the Rams. Goff is paid a base salary of $3 million dollars. That is insanity.
That is why the Rams able to sign Suh and all their prized position players in Donald and Cook and Gurley etc. etc. etc. The team is LOADED because it pays Goff virtually nothing. So for all the criticisms Goff gets, his shortcomings are A GOOD thing because if he was an all-world QB, more in the mold of Mahomes, he would already be grumbling or holding out for an extension too soon and the Rams wouldn't be in this position.
Already on ESPN's site, the headline is the Chiefs could make Mahomes the first $200 million dollar man.
That is the WORST headline imaginable for the Chiefs because they are not going to the Super Bowl this year and have two seasons left to get exactly what Mahomes is giving now while paying him nothing!
Even if you look at Super Bowl losers of recent times, the Panthers paid Cam $1 million when he went to the big game and then they dropped off a cliff. Again, this IS the formula for success.
Look at the Seahawks now. Look at the Panthers now after Cam and Russell make what they make. The ENTIRE Legion of Boom is gone and they had to get very creative this year to have the success they had. The Panthers crapped the bed. So the Rams are under increased pressure to get this done NOW before Goff is due to be paid in 2020 as well. There is no more time. And all the talent is here and the trigger must be pulled on a title.
2. Patriots recency bias
This team got every single call down the stretch of that KC game. Every one. The Tom Brady roughing the passer call may have been one of the worst calls in playoff history that was not a deciding call.
All this translates to the Pats winning the Bowl now? Favored!? Right out of the gate as Pats money floods in from the squares and maybe even the sharps?
For me, the Pats have guts and perennial exposure to the big one, but they have not impressed me enough to bet on them against the Rams.
Why?
The Chargers were playing two road games going West-East back-West-back East and were totally unprepared under Lynn. NO adjustments. Nothing. Travel fatigue and no game plan. That was a walk-through for the Pats. That Pats team was preparing for this game while playing that warm-up.
In this game, outside of getting all the calls (many which were correct but still by razor thin margins on a bobble here or a roughing there, they simply won't ALL go your way like this game), if the Pats do not win that coin flip in OT, they do not win this game. Credit to them for the drive but there was no other option. Score 6 or lose. They were brilliant on that drive but again, without the ball in their hands due to a flip, I see them losing, particularly when Mahomes put up 24 in the 4th.
On top of all this, the Chiefs finally had their comeuppance for the flaws in their league worst defense.
The D was so bad in this game, I honestly thought I was watching SMU or East Carolina from the AAC. Defenders were totally nonexistent at times.
And all that (all the calls + vs. a D that continually surrendered points), the Pats barely took it home, also after their D gave up a tying FG with a mere 33 seconds. One stop, a stop the Pats have so often got so many years before, was not even CLOSE to occurring against KC. So this D is vulnerable late CLEARLY.
This Pats team is NOT the Pats team of previous Super Bowls, sits on the back of Brady and the braintrust that is Belichick and the coaching staff and is simply clutch at the perfect times, because they've been here so often.
But there were so many Un-Pats-like things in this game when watching, the leaks that have me moving my money off them and onto the Rams:
24 Chiefs points in the 4th (where Brady was 78-1 with a 14-0 lead on the line)
The WIDE OPEN misdirection play to Watkins where there wasn't a Pats soul in sight, for 38 yards to the 2 with 2:54 left to play. SO crucial a miss.
The constant miscues and penalties by JC Jackson basically rolling out a red carpet down the field for KC. He'll have a rough Super Bowl if he isn't benched like Malcolm was.
Gronk looking like he's one hard tackle from entering a nursing home.
Very un-Patriot like for me in certain spots even in a thrilling win.
So many things went the Pats way. The Edelmen punt that didn't hit him (it didn't but still he went for it and was a millimeter from actually touching it), the KC defensive offsides on the INT that would have ended the game on the final drive, winning the coin toss in OT, and all the fortunate official reviews going the Pats way. ALL of that added up to the last second of last second wins. That's too close for comfort for my money to bet on the Pats.
For all the complaining about the Rams pass interference call (which was beyond awful), in the aggregate, the Pats were MORE fortunate in their game imo.
They were brilliant in many areas, Brady was the GOAT for the millionth time but for me it comes down to the following;
1. Give McVay 2 weeks to counter everything he saw on tape against the Pats and he can do it. He is one of the most brilliant minds in all of football and the one who will take the mantle for the greatest football mind when Bill retires, if ever. In terms of 'creative gamelans', McVay will have the advantage here and will bring enough to the table to win this game with the talent he has.
2. Gronk 6 catches for 79 yards. That is a disgrace given what he is now. He even had 97 vs. KC last time and in both games he came up HUGE down the stretch, almost a replay of himself in both games late. He's not coming up with those plays against the Rams. The Rams are not all world but they are not the worst of the worst like the Chiefs and their secondary who had their putrid shortcomings on full display. Take away ONE Gronk catch of the 6 and the Chiefs win.
3. The Rams Run defense, its Achilles heel has been sensational.
Dallas tried to come in and have Elliot bully them. Result: 20 carries for 47.
The Saints two headed monster in Kamara and Ingram were shut down for 31 and 15.
Those THREE backs in TWO games held down for less than 100 yards and 1 TD in the two biggest games of the year. Sensational. Peaking and shows the Rams staff is paying attention to their deficiencies.
QUOTE"They were brilliant in many areas, Brady was the GOAT for the millionth time "
What the hell game did you watch he threw a pick at the 1 yard line and , threw another pick that would have ended the game if the guy wasn't lined up offside
Seriously watch the games and stop being a Simpleton based on a final score
:00hour
