HSF & NCAAF for Week 9/29-10/1

Riff-Raff

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Record:

College Foots: 20-18-1 (-8.1 units)
HSF : 17-12-1 (+1.4 units)

Today's Degeneration pick.....

Valor Christian / Cherry Creek Under 38'... 1 unit...LOSS.... (-120) *Back to the beautiful state of Colorado for yet another Valor game. Both teams limp in with combined records of 3-5. Neither team has really played to their potential. Both teams look to turn around their seasons with a much needed W.

Valor has played a brutal pre-league schedule. Unfortunately, what started as a quest for national recognition playing cross state powerhouses, has been a lesson in humility. No doubt the team is dangerous and while hasn't lived up to its reputation, can still make a run for another Colorado State title by winning its league. Certainly, no team will look forward to playing them. Valor actually had a lead last week against the #1 ranked team in Colorado (Pomona) at the half, 16-3. But, gave up 20 unanswered points in the second half to lose 23-16, which pushed record to 1-3. This is Valors final non-league game. They average 18.8 ppg. Note: Valor hasn't been 1-3 since 2010 when it went on to win the 4A State Championship.

Cherry Creek also comes in a bit disappointed with a 2-2 record. They are a bit inexperienced at QB with a Soph caller, Alex Padilla, who is searching his way. Last week the offense was shut down only scoring 6 points. A lot of history with Cherry Creek (ironic, if I remember my high school history, Cherry Creek sparked the Colorado Gold Rush)... They won the State in 2014. These two hooked horns twice last year, with Valor winning 10-0 in schedule, and losing again to Valor 20-10 in State semi-finals. Bruins are averaging 17 ppg this year.

Both teams have great defense, which is what I think this one will turn into. Bruins will be looking for some revenge from ly, however, QB Dylan McCaffrey has yet to have a break out game for Eagles. I think Valor probably wins it on the fact they have played a much tougher schedule, but 9' is more than I'm willing to lay until Valor proves they are on all cylinders. I think we might have another defensive masterpiece with this one.... Gl.


Houston TT Over 39 (3 units).... WIN....... UConn couldn't stop Orange passing attack last week giving up 407 yards and 2 tds through the air. Greg Ward Jr should be licking his chops for this match-up. Cougs are 4-0 l4 on turf,and 7-2 Ats in last 9. Cougs are 6-1 ATS in last 7. UConn handed Houston only loss last year, so major revenge angle here, coupled with being ranked #6 nationally will mean style points if Houston gets the chance as they have to stay in good graces of powers that be. Probably a cover as Houston Defense is overlooked but very strong.

North Carolina AT&T - 14 over Hampton... 3 units...WIN...... . (-120).. NcAT&T has owned Hampton last 2 years. Hampton has lost last 4 of 6 on the road. Aggies lost last week to a very good Tulsa squad. They haven't lost back to back games since 2013. QB Raynard is completing 62.7%of his passes. Hampton QB only averaging 50%. Defensively, Pirates giving up almost 30 points per game.

Aggies are the better team and have played a much tougher schedule. Should win by 21...gl.
 
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hawkeye

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like the Valor pick--Cherry is just not the same this year-also had Houston tt ov also--I like tt in certain spots--this is one of htem--gl
 

hawkeye

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Valor recruits heavily and has more talent than Creek. Dave Logan the coach at Creek to me is the best coach in the state.
 

Riff-Raff

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2 more HSF plays for 9/30...

*Sadly Cherry Creek and Valor went on a scorefest... Awwww High school football!

St. THOMAS Aquinas +14' over Bishop Gorman..... 2 units....WINNER... *FINAL 3 OTs... Gorman 25---STA 24.... (-120) *Let me preface by saying that I believe Gorman wins this game and lays claim to the mythological HSF National Title. They definitely deserve the honor after beating some of the top teams in the USA. Still, it won't be easy as Aquinas comes into this game playing stellar defense and the offense has found its rhythm. This meeting was supposed to be the Clash of Titans as Aquinas was the pre season #1 ranked team, but hiccuped early losing to Florida power Booker T Washington (a team that last gave Gorman a loss I believe back in 2014. Since the loss, Aquinas has responded admirably and has given up 1 TD in the last 12 quarters.

Interesting footnote to this match, or rather how it came to be. It was QB Tate Martell who tweeted back in December a challenge to Aquinas to make the game happen. Aquinas response was quick and the challenge actually got the ire of Aquinas WR Grimes (headed to Ohio St) that Martell shouldn't disrespect Florida football by making such irresponsible tweets and challenges. Anyway, the powers that be, with the help of ESPN made it happen and now Aquinas players are taking it personal that Martell disrespected their program and Florida high school football. Of course the game has been mega hyped since then.

I have followed Gorman very closely this season. Martell is the real deal. His current numbers are 816 yards with 13 tds through the air. He has added 406 yards with 6 tds on the ground. A true dual threat QB that has outstanding field sense and finds the open lanes. He is the leader of this team that has won 7 consecutive State titles and won 44 games in a row. If Aquinas is to be successful, they must account for Martell and keep him in the pocket, however, the kid has a laser release and hasn't thrown a pick all season. Gorman defense is loaded with DIV1 talent that often gets overlooked. In addition, Gorman gets back their top RB who has been hurt the last 3 games, and WR Lindsey who has been out all year but will start tomorrow night.

Aquinas travels 2,200 miles to the desert oasis. Their Coach says it is all business. They arrived Wed in hopes of acclimatize to the hot, dry temps. Aquinas is loaded on both sides of the ball. They have Division 1 talent everywhere. Since 2006, they have won 9 state championships and have had 25 former players go into the NFL. The talent machine produces more NFL players than most college programs. In their last 3 games the offense has outscored opponents 133-6, pitching 2 straight shutouts. Their QB is headed to Florida and has passed for 800 yards with 4 tds. They have a bullpen of RB with 4RBs running for over 100 yards. Great talent at WR gives QB Allen a lot of options which he is suited for as a pocket passer.

This game is the last cross state showdown of 2016 and should live up to its hoopla. Both storied HSF programs with a lot to prove. Aquinas comes in with a huge chip on its shoulders, feels disrespected, and is carrying the weight of Florida football to the lion's den. Between these teams their are 15 players from the 2017 & 2018 classes that are ranked in ESPNs 300. We will be watching a lot of these kids on Saturday's. I thought about the over here, but decided Aquinas Defense should be able to keep the score within 2 tds.....at least I hope so!
 
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Riff-Raff

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1 more HSF for Friday...

Hart/Ventura Over 52'...2 units..LOSER FINAL SCORE: 35-0...well one team did their job, one shoots blanks....
.. As always (-120) *This line is way to low for these teams. Hart Indians (yes still a high school mascot with Indians as their moniker) average 32 ppg. Ventura average 31.2 ppg. I think this could be a shoot out. I really like this total.


College Total for Friday...

My largest Total play thus far..... Byu/Toledo Over 52'..... 8 units..WINNER .... Had to spread my money around a couple of books so the total wouldn't keep moving up.

Toledo averaging 42 ppg. Cougs have played 4 straight Power 5 opponents. Byu has lost the last 3 games by a total of 7 points. Last week against W. Virginia Detmer got his offense rolling, putting up 32 points.

Rockets are 3-0 facing some very bad teams. Still, the Oline averages 302 lbs per lineman. They are very physical and athletic and love to run the ball. Byu has shown big weakness against the pass which I think we will see both. Toledo will score and Byu will score... Should go way over.. Gl
 
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Riff-Raff

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Stanford +3'......3 units..LOSER.... Damn Huskies have a defense.... *Both teams enter, one goes home very disappointed. I'm not a huge Pac 12 fan, despite living on the West Coast for most of my life. Interesting game. I capped it as a pickem. Can't ignore Trees are a gamblers buddy going 3-0 ATS this year. I like the "Go to work" style their Coach employs,not real fancy but get the job done. Stanford has had the harder schedule to date, and I think they are a better team. They will definitely be the smartest team on the field tonight. Love the McCaffrey kid (even if his younger brother cost me money yesterday) Stanford plays great D. Last year Trees cruised 31-14, think the Cardinals might be in Huskies head, I will take the points.
 
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Riff-Raff

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Score update :

Nearing end of the 3rd Quarter.... Aquinas 7..Gorman 3
Defensive struggle.

Thanks Stanford... Washington is for real.

4th Quarter (3 minutes left) Bishop Gorman 10...... ST Thomas Aquinas 7
 
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Dizzayton

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Thanks for posting your big play on BYU over. I read your post and played it big also.
 

Riff-Raff

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Thanks for posting your big play on BYU over. I read your post and played it big also.

Your more than welcome. Glad we cashed, took some sting out of Trees loss.

OVERTIME : AQUINAS 17...... GORMAN 10.....

2nd OT Aquinas 17....Gorman 17

Final.... 3rd OT

Gaels 25........Raiders 24
 
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Riff-Raff

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Saturday 10/1......Starting to feel like fall...

Today:

1. Kansas St +3 (bought 1/2 point)...WINNER........ 4 units... *although I don't think it will matter. Wildcat Defense is tenacious and giving up fewest passing yards and rushing yards in the nation. #1 in Red Zone efficiency going 16/16 in scoring from inside the 20. They have allowed 33 points total in last 3 games. Mountaineers are 0-6 ATS in last 6 win facing a foe with a winning record. Gotta love Bill Snyder. Wildcats don't beat themselves. The ML should be safe here.

2. Troy - 13' over Idaho...... 4 units.... WINNER... . Troy comes in 3-1 and playing well on both sides of the ball. They beat a good S. MISS Squad, and gave Clemson a run up in Death Valley losing by 6. Troy offense is clicking, averages 42.5 ppg. and 475 yards per game. Defense is tough on 3rd down and red zone. Vandals are improving and I think this line is a bit of a overreaction to pulling a surprise W last week in Vegas. While improved just not enough to stay within 14 of Troy.

3. E. MICHIGAN +2.5 over Bowling Green...... 3 units....WINNER.... *Bowling Green starts a redshirt Frosh at QB. They might be defending Mac Champs however, they have given up 77 points in a game...... Twice! BG limps into this match with a confident 3-1 E. Michigan gang that came away with an unlikely victory against Wyoming in which QB Porter tossed 3 picks all within the first 17 minutes of the game, one was returned for a TD. He threw another pick 6 in the 4th quarter which gave Cowboys the lead. Still, Eagles showed resilience fighting back and winning. That should bode well for Eagles to grab a W. Both Defense are horrible, but think BG is in disarray.

4. Minnesota +2' over Penn St.... 5 units..LOSS....... FUCK.... Penn St manages to screw me again... I hate OT sometimes.... *Nittany Lions gave up 6 sacks to Michigan last week and the route was on. Come to find out this defense is beat up, and all 3 starting Lbs are out with injuries. D-line gets blown off the ball. Defense gave up 365 yards rushing to Wolverines. Enter Golden Gophers who loves to run and do it well with an athletic Oline opening holes. QB Leidner is dual threat who will pull it down and run to the lane. Penn St is in trouble here. If they commit too many in the box, Golphers will open up play action. Think Minnesota rolls in Happy Valley.

5. Wisconsin +11 @ Michigan..... 5 units..WINNER.......(may play some on the ML also) *Just think Bucky is getting overlooked despite being perfect and winning against some good teams. Badgers have allowed 1 rushing TD. Have given up 2 passing Tds while registering 6 picks. Michigan hasn't been anything special on the ground. Think this could be a defensive battle which goes down to the wire. Can't see Wolverines pulling away. Lots of points.

6. Buffalo +19 over Boston College....3 units... LOSER..... *Bulls gained some confidence last week coming from behind to beat upstart Army. The 14 point comeback was the largest since 2008. BC anemic offense shouldn't be laying double digits to a High School JV team. Kinda like the under but will stay with the points.

7. Wake Forest +11 over NC State.... 5 units..LOSER...... Neither team has played a grueling schedule but ya gotta like the Demon Deacons 4-0 start to the season. Defense has been lights out, while the offense takes care of the ball without a lot of pomp. This is Wakes best start in 10 years and the campus is excited. Wake has totaled 6 int and 12 sacks thus far. NC State runs a dual QB system which is averaging 42.3 ppg. States RB Matt Dayes will try to run against a defense ranked 34th nationally. Like I said, NC St hasn't played much of a competitive schedule so their numbers will be skewed. Wake should keep things close and possibly walk away with a V.

Be back with totals.
 
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Riff-Raff

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Totals for Saturday...

1. Pitt/Marshall Over 65.....4 units...WINNER *both secondarys can be exploited. Forget the run when you can pass.

2. Michigan St /Indiana Over 52.....6 units...LOSER (Despite going to OT.... ARGH)... *my number is 62.....take the gift.

3. No Carolina /Florida St Over 70......3 units..LOSS...D. COOK will have a big day against porous Tara Heels D that will be playing on their heels.

4. C Mich/W Mich Over 58.....4 units..WINNER... (by 1 point) . * think it will be a shoot out.

Gl
 
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Riff-Raff

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A few TT to chew on...

1. Mid Tennessee St TT over 40'
... LOSS

2. Hawaii TT over 27

3. W. Virginia TT Under 29...WIN..

4. Michigan TT Under 27'
..WIN..

5. NC State TT Under 31...LOSS..

6. New Mexico TT Over 31'
... WIN..

Wash St TT Over 36'
... WINNER

*All TT are for 3 units..... Good luck today boys!
 
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Riff-Raff

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Adding : A couple of FCS plays

Sam Houston Over 71.... WINNER.. ...shootout

Norfolk /Howard Over 40'...WINNER.... .2 bad teams with 1 win between them, seemed to have found some offense lw

Illinois St +15...LOSS... ...think Redbirds keep it close

All for 2 units...... Gl
 
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Riff-Raff

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Adding.....

10 Unit Total....... Comes from a buddy of mine who is a great totals man...

Air Force /Navy Over 49..... LOSS...... UNFORTUNATELY, only managed 3 points in 1st Half. Still almost covered as 2nd half was a scorefest. Right idea, just one of those days.
 
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Riff-Raff

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Adding:

Saluki +12'.......5 units....LOSS (Ouch) ...... If I had a FCS Game of the month, this might be it.

Coastal Carolina - 4'....LOSS (Won by 4)... 3 units... This team is pretty good.

Benedict College +33'..2 units.... LOSS ........Yeah,i know, Who? I guess we will find out. GW is a good team, but this number is too high.

Sorry, No time for write ups.... Busy Saturday. A lot of plays, however, this is the time of year that some of my handicapping models kick in. Trust me, I don't throw darts, put a lot of blood sweat and tears into weekly capping. Gl
 
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