hump day
- Thread starter THUNDER
- Start date
Is there something Im not seeing here? Why is everbody on the Dallas under? With the exception on Honus, everybody is taking the under in this. When I look at this game I see that the average total points for these two teams is 187.5 which is right at the over/under mark. However when I look at the last 5 games for each of these teams I see that the total points is 198.5 which is quite a bit higher than tonites o/u. Also if you look at the last few matchups between these two teams:
Denver 110 Dallas 116
Denver 97 Dallas 104
both of these are overs? You are a great capper and I was just wondering what Im not looking at. Feedback would be appreciated.
Thanks
Fab
Denver 110 Dallas 116
Denver 97 Dallas 104
both of these are overs? You are a great capper and I was just wondering what Im not looking at. Feedback would be appreciated.
Thanks
Fab
All I can say is....sometimes when the last 5 are 198.5 and now the game is 187, there is a reason 
.
Don't always play with averages in mind...Vegas knows all that, they are not tossing out an arbitrary number. Kinda like 0-5 team going against 5-0 team, and line is only in 3-6 pt range....0-5 team will cover the spread I would say at least 75% of time.
Statistically though this is not far off...in fact, this is the highest line Denver has seen at home so far, check out the totals so far:
177
181
167
181
166
167
169
164
176
178
177
177
Average Denver line at home this year is 173-174
Average Dallas line on the road is 196-197
Average those and you are talking 184 range.
I doubt Joe Public knows that 181 is the highest line Denver has seen at home. Let the public hit the over some more and you will get better value.
Just my $0.02.
.Don't always play with averages in mind...Vegas knows all that, they are not tossing out an arbitrary number. Kinda like 0-5 team going against 5-0 team, and line is only in 3-6 pt range....0-5 team will cover the spread I would say at least 75% of time.
Statistically though this is not far off...in fact, this is the highest line Denver has seen at home so far, check out the totals so far:
177
181
167
181
166
167
169
164
176
178
177
177
Average Denver line at home this year is 173-174
Average Dallas line on the road is 196-197
Average those and you are talking 184 range.
I doubt Joe Public knows that 181 is the highest line Denver has seen at home. Let the public hit the over some more and you will get better value.
Just my $0.02.
Fabulous, the games you are refering to were last year when Den was a much more offensive minded team and Dal played absolutely no d. Also, this year's Den team will be hard pressed to score 90 which means that Dal will have to carry the scoring load. Remember, Dal played a tough game last night and now have to play in Den. Even the best shooters should wear down by the fourth. Not a good spot for the over.
FYI gsp....
I went to the Mavs/Pacers game last night and it was not a tough game at all. The mavs were in control most of the night and had a 27 point lead very early in the 4th quarter. Nash and Dirk only played 26 and 28 minutes last night and both of them plus Finley and Van exel sat almost the entire 4th quarter. They WILL NOT BE FATIGUED!
Just an FYI,
Good luck on your plays,
YAZ
I went to the Mavs/Pacers game last night and it was not a tough game at all. The mavs were in control most of the night and had a 27 point lead very early in the 4th quarter. Nash and Dirk only played 26 and 28 minutes last night and both of them plus Finley and Van exel sat almost the entire 4th quarter. They WILL NOT BE FATIGUED!
Just an FYI,
Good luck on your plays,
YAZ
Thanks everybody for the info. Im still not sure if I want to touch this o/u or not yet. Homewrecker was at the game last nite and if those key players got that much rest they may not actually be fatigued tonite :shrug: I hate taking the under with Dallas because they can score points in a hurry. Accoriding to NBA.com Dallas is 1st in the league with points scored averaging 105.9, but on the other hand Denver is last with only 80.1. Dallas is 16th in the league in points allowed averaging 93.4 while Denver is 4th only giving up 89 ppg. What contradicting stats huh??!?!?!. These numbers average out to 184.2 points making the under look like the right play.
I just checked and the line is up to 189.5, if this hits 190 or better I think I will take the under because Denver should be hard pressed to much more than 80 which means Dallas would have to hit the 110 mark to put the game over.
just to respond on capping totals- i looks at more than anything else tempo and who will dictate it then i cap the side to see what way i think the game will go then i cap the total #'s give me a starting point but recent play tendencies and matchups make a total a play for me. denver cannot run and expect to win and since they are home i see them being able to slow things up a bit. dallas did cruise last night but there starters played plenty plus they are in high altitude on back to back which = under 6-0 this season in this situation. i think dallas pulls away in the end and have this game in the high 70's. gl
Cav a good day
Cav a good day
What up Thunder,
Appreciate the big call on Cleveland, not to mention all your work.
Peace :SIB
Hammyabeer dance2
Cav a good day
What up Thunder,
Appreciate the big call on Cleveland, not to mention all your work.
Peace :SIB
Hammyabeer dance2
