I was hoping this would be the finals matchup. Why? Because the better team is whopping dog.
I would like to take this op. to break it down. There are so many mismatches in this series and they all favor Detroit. Boy I love the guys on ESPN who rarely watch anything but the highlights.
First off you have the two point guards who I feel will guard each other in this series. Billups is one of the best on the ball defenders in the league at the point guard, and will be able to keep Parker out of the lane for the most part. I'm sure he will start off playing off Parker to make him hit some outside shots before he starts pressing him. On the other side of the ball, there is a huge mismatch on Detroits favor at the Point. Billups is just so much stronger than Parker and a GREAT post up guard. There is no way Parker can handle him down low, therefore forcing the DOUBLE team.
Moving on to the 2 and 3 positions, I have to put these together because it is a big key in the series.
Ginobili and Bowen against Hamiliton and Prince. First on SA's end. Prince will more than likely be guarding Ginobili, and that is bad news for the Spurs. Unlike Wade, Ginobili(while quick) doesn't have the quickness that Wade possessed, therefore Prince can give him a little room while still being able to force Ginobili to shoot the jumper under diress. Hamiliton will get the call on Bowen. Bowen is nothing but a spot up shooter. He has absolutely no post game, so the smaller and weaker Hamiliton shouldn't have any problem with this matchup. Plus while only having to guard a spot up shooter, he should be able to save his legs for the offensive end. On to Detroits offense. There is two ways San Antonio can play this and they will be behind the 8 ball both ways. The only real way to play it is have Ginobili on Rip and Bowen on Prince. The media will tell everyone that Bowen will be on Hamiliton to shut him down. BIG PROBLEM!! There is no way on God's Green Earth that Ginoblili can guard Prince in the post. Unlike Bowen, Prince has a very good post game and again will force another DOUBLE team advantage for the Piston's. If they put Bowen on Prince, then Hamiliton will run Ginobili to death around screens. TIRED GUARDS MAKE POOR JUMPSHOOTERS. And even with Bowen on Prince, Prince is still long enough to give Bowen fits in the post, but in fairness i think the strength advantage for Bowen will be good enough to keep Prince further away from the Basket, therefore SA should be able to get away with not having to double.
Now to the Big men. There are two people in this league that give Tim D. fits. One is Kevin Garnett and the other is Rasheed Wallace. There isn't many teams in the league that don't have to double Duncan, and Detroit is one of them. Sure Duncan will get some points, but since Detroit won't double him he won't be able to get other teammates into the game. If they got to play Miami, Duncan could easily take Haslet(sp?) into the post where he is way to strong for him or take Shaq outside where he could hit that little 13 to 14 footer off the glass or take him outside then drive to the hoop, shaq(especially hurt) can't stop that. But Sheed(Who is a great defender on the blocks and on the outide(against big men),can. Nazr is basically a wash, he is not strong enough to push Ben around on offense, Wallace should be able to own the defensive boards when Duncan is shooting the ball. I can't see Nazr having much to any offensive post game in this series. Now for the matchup I really like Duncan guarding Wallace. How will Duncan be able to stop Rasheed on the pick and rolls? Rasheed is alot quicker out top, plus he can bring Duncan out to the 3 point line the whole game if he is hot. That leaves the offensive boards free and clear for Ben Wallace, plus the middle open for Billups or Prince to post up. Now SA might try and Counter this by going small and bringing in Horry and putting him at the 4 since he is much quicker than Duncan and can play better perimeter Defense. However, if they do this, Rasheed goes to the post where he has an overwhelming advantage against Horry.
I will get into the benches another time, but at this whopping price, I can't see how anyone can lay off the Pistons in this series, SA would have had a much better chance against the heat.
I have the series as Detroit +400 and change, because i bet that they would win the championship after game 6 of the miami series(which had me real worried), hoping that they would win game 7 on the road and get in.
There are ways SA can win this series, but most of it has to do with Detroit being sloppy with the ball, which they are known to do.
The opening line for the series is Detroit +173, I feel there is alot of value I here. I kinda hope Detroit loses game one so I can get even more value on them.
My 2 cents. I hope it helps.
DavidD
I would like to take this op. to break it down. There are so many mismatches in this series and they all favor Detroit. Boy I love the guys on ESPN who rarely watch anything but the highlights.
First off you have the two point guards who I feel will guard each other in this series. Billups is one of the best on the ball defenders in the league at the point guard, and will be able to keep Parker out of the lane for the most part. I'm sure he will start off playing off Parker to make him hit some outside shots before he starts pressing him. On the other side of the ball, there is a huge mismatch on Detroits favor at the Point. Billups is just so much stronger than Parker and a GREAT post up guard. There is no way Parker can handle him down low, therefore forcing the DOUBLE team.
Moving on to the 2 and 3 positions, I have to put these together because it is a big key in the series.
Ginobili and Bowen against Hamiliton and Prince. First on SA's end. Prince will more than likely be guarding Ginobili, and that is bad news for the Spurs. Unlike Wade, Ginobili(while quick) doesn't have the quickness that Wade possessed, therefore Prince can give him a little room while still being able to force Ginobili to shoot the jumper under diress. Hamiliton will get the call on Bowen. Bowen is nothing but a spot up shooter. He has absolutely no post game, so the smaller and weaker Hamiliton shouldn't have any problem with this matchup. Plus while only having to guard a spot up shooter, he should be able to save his legs for the offensive end. On to Detroits offense. There is two ways San Antonio can play this and they will be behind the 8 ball both ways. The only real way to play it is have Ginobili on Rip and Bowen on Prince. The media will tell everyone that Bowen will be on Hamiliton to shut him down. BIG PROBLEM!! There is no way on God's Green Earth that Ginoblili can guard Prince in the post. Unlike Bowen, Prince has a very good post game and again will force another DOUBLE team advantage for the Piston's. If they put Bowen on Prince, then Hamiliton will run Ginobili to death around screens. TIRED GUARDS MAKE POOR JUMPSHOOTERS. And even with Bowen on Prince, Prince is still long enough to give Bowen fits in the post, but in fairness i think the strength advantage for Bowen will be good enough to keep Prince further away from the Basket, therefore SA should be able to get away with not having to double.
Now to the Big men. There are two people in this league that give Tim D. fits. One is Kevin Garnett and the other is Rasheed Wallace. There isn't many teams in the league that don't have to double Duncan, and Detroit is one of them. Sure Duncan will get some points, but since Detroit won't double him he won't be able to get other teammates into the game. If they got to play Miami, Duncan could easily take Haslet(sp?) into the post where he is way to strong for him or take Shaq outside where he could hit that little 13 to 14 footer off the glass or take him outside then drive to the hoop, shaq(especially hurt) can't stop that. But Sheed(Who is a great defender on the blocks and on the outide(against big men),can. Nazr is basically a wash, he is not strong enough to push Ben around on offense, Wallace should be able to own the defensive boards when Duncan is shooting the ball. I can't see Nazr having much to any offensive post game in this series. Now for the matchup I really like Duncan guarding Wallace. How will Duncan be able to stop Rasheed on the pick and rolls? Rasheed is alot quicker out top, plus he can bring Duncan out to the 3 point line the whole game if he is hot. That leaves the offensive boards free and clear for Ben Wallace, plus the middle open for Billups or Prince to post up. Now SA might try and Counter this by going small and bringing in Horry and putting him at the 4 since he is much quicker than Duncan and can play better perimeter Defense. However, if they do this, Rasheed goes to the post where he has an overwhelming advantage against Horry.
I will get into the benches another time, but at this whopping price, I can't see how anyone can lay off the Pistons in this series, SA would have had a much better chance against the heat.
I have the series as Detroit +400 and change, because i bet that they would win the championship after game 6 of the miami series(which had me real worried), hoping that they would win game 7 on the road and get in.
There are ways SA can win this series, but most of it has to do with Detroit being sloppy with the ball, which they are known to do.
The opening line for the series is Detroit +173, I feel there is alot of value I here. I kinda hope Detroit loses game one so I can get even more value on them.
My 2 cents. I hope it helps.
DavidD
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