I was told......

[yyz]

....by one of my friends, that the NBA games seem to go over the total in the 1st half, and stay under in the second.

I don't have a record of all the lines, but looking at the qtr-by-qtr scores, the 1st halves generally seem to be higher scoring than the 2nd in a lot of games.

The lowest scoring qtr seems to be the 3rd, an average.

Now, I don't know if this means anything, but it might be worth keeping an eye on.

 

[Valuist]

That sounds like a pretty big generalization to me. For one thing, in the first half you don't get the "Foul A Rama" which can mean an extra 12-15 free throws in the final minute.

 

[NJO]

The second half also presents guys in foul trouble, perhaps leading to less than aggressive D as guys stay out of foul trouble.

In the end, it seems second halves would play out to one of the other extremes because of what Valuist raised -- I would hesitate giving too much credence to that generalization without sound reasoning or statistical backing.

 

[theGibber1]

i was pretty successful betting the under for the third period last year. taken the same bet a couple of times this year too and won some green.

good luck

 

[Randercity]

For what it's worth, I play HT's all the time and I haven't lost a second half UNDER yet... I don't think there's a trend here, or a reason for it, other than adjustments being made at HT by both teams. It does seem teams are clicking in the first half though, and then falling off in the 2nd. It doesn't make sense logically for the reasons stated above, and with the RISK of OT (Like SEA/ORL last nite) it is also logical that 2nd halves would be higher scoring. For whatever reason, I think a fluke, it's not happening yet. I think you'll soon see this "trend" right itself and even out...

As far as the 3rd period scoring is concerned, that to me is somewhat logical. Teams make adjustments at HT, maybe trying a new DEF or new offense and it causes both teams to struggle. Also, fatigue is a small factor as you're coming back after a break, and it takes awhile to get the juices flowing again. Usually one team is stopping the other or something, and a timeout is called and things get changed up again. The 3rd period is a transition period, with both teams focusing on DEF... by the fourth period, teams are tired, defense slacks, and thus more scoring. Also the extra foul shots from the penalty come into play, especially in a close game.

That's my thoughts on this one...

 

[butRnaked]

Rander,

I am knew to the NBA scene and noticed your HT posts and think they are great.Could you share with us some of your favorite systems and what you are looking for at halftime to trigger your plays? Thank you in advance for your reply and keep up the good work.

butRnaked