Yesterday: Portland State Outright winner (+7 - bought 1/2 point) - 2 units
Day before: UL-Monroe +15.5 - Winner - 1.5 units
FEBRUARY 2ND TOP PLAY:
MANHATTAN +6 - I am hoping it rises to 6 points - if not, once again, I will buy the half a point b/c this will be tight. For me, it's just 250 - so the 1/2 point charge is not much if it is go into the bet better off. If anyone sees a 6 anywhere please let me know.
Honorable Mention:
Yale - Just have a feeling they rout Princeton today given Princeton's lack of scoring ability. But, I didn't get that to be an inflated line on my spreadsheet where as Niagara was an inflated line as I have them winning by 2.8. So, I went with this game.
At this time of year and in nearly every part of the year as I mentioned this on another thread, a 5.5 spread is absolutely brutal to cover both in college basketball and football - hell, it should be deeemed as a trap spread to the bettor.
I think back and on countless spreads the 5.5 spread leads to an outright win for the dog or them falling just short as it is appealing to take the favorite to cover by 5.5, but it is a pain in the behind spread to cover - in particular football.
Now, I don't like Manhattan for that reason but I thought I would just point that out. Manhattan is equal in talent with Niagara - there is no denying that which I will try to establish below.
Both teams are around .500 as Manhattan is 11-10 and Niagara is 11-11.
But Niagara is laying the points here although they do have revenge from 02/06 as they lost in OT to Manhattan by a point when Manhattan was on the road.
Well, we have another Manhattan team on the road at Niagara again. Manhattan has covered this series the last 3/4 years and having followed basketball a while, this team has only gotten better each year which can be attributed to their solid coaching.
In fact, they are a team that is very focused on the road as they are 17-4 ATS in thier last 22 ballgames and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. That's right, if you had wagered on Manhattan basketball the last 10 ballgames against the spread, you would have come out a winner 80% of the time.
In fact, the underdog is - ready for this - 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
On top of all that, Manhattan is 4-1 ATS at Niagara of late, and remember that treacherous spread I was talking about of 5.5 - well Niagara doesn't handle that mark well as they are 2-7 ATS as a favorite by that margin and in fact, not a good home cover overall as they are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home ball games.
How has each team done against relative and similar competition - well - about the same with Manhattan getting the slight edge much like Portland State yesterday against Montana.
In fact, this game is very similar if you take out the revenge angle.
Let me point this out before I fail to mention it - if you place this spread at 6, the game has been decided by 6 points or less the last 5/6 years.
Back to the similar competitions between these squads:
Manhattan beats Loyola Maryland on the road by 2 as 5.5 dogs (similar to today).
Niagara loses by 1 to LMaryland on the road by 1 in OT but covers the 4.5 spread (another 4.5-5.5 spread covered).
Manhattan beats Iona on the road by 10 - Niagara beats them b 1 at home.
Manhatan beats Rider by 11 as a 6 point chalk at home, Niagara beats them by 1 on the road.
Manhattan beats Fairfield by 4 at home, Niagara loses to Farifield by 12 on the road.
Manhattan plays Marist and beats them by 1 at home.
Niagara beats Marist by 12 on the road - but that was revenge b/c they lost to them at home in overtime by 5 - so this doesn't worry me.
So, in short, Manhattan is catching points in a game they could win outright, which is what I like to play, and I'll definitely want to take this at 6 regardless of the line movement - even if I have to buy the 1/2 point. This rivalry has a good record of the road team covering b/c of the close games and the tough spread as a home chalk of 5.5 - this game has been historically close, 2 evenly matched teams as I think Manhattan has a 45/55 shot at winning outright so I'll take the points and the trends as Niagara is typically not a good home cover while Manhattan is a solid road cover and cover of late as they are on a 8-2 ATS run.
Also, I try not to wager on any team that shoots a FT% below 65% and Manhattan shoots around 69.7% so that fits the criteria.
This is what I have today -
Good luck today -
IC:SIB
Day before: UL-Monroe +15.5 - Winner - 1.5 units
FEBRUARY 2ND TOP PLAY:
MANHATTAN +6 - I am hoping it rises to 6 points - if not, once again, I will buy the half a point b/c this will be tight. For me, it's just 250 - so the 1/2 point charge is not much if it is go into the bet better off. If anyone sees a 6 anywhere please let me know.
Honorable Mention:
Yale - Just have a feeling they rout Princeton today given Princeton's lack of scoring ability. But, I didn't get that to be an inflated line on my spreadsheet where as Niagara was an inflated line as I have them winning by 2.8. So, I went with this game.
At this time of year and in nearly every part of the year as I mentioned this on another thread, a 5.5 spread is absolutely brutal to cover both in college basketball and football - hell, it should be deeemed as a trap spread to the bettor.
I think back and on countless spreads the 5.5 spread leads to an outright win for the dog or them falling just short as it is appealing to take the favorite to cover by 5.5, but it is a pain in the behind spread to cover - in particular football.
Now, I don't like Manhattan for that reason but I thought I would just point that out. Manhattan is equal in talent with Niagara - there is no denying that which I will try to establish below.
Both teams are around .500 as Manhattan is 11-10 and Niagara is 11-11.
But Niagara is laying the points here although they do have revenge from 02/06 as they lost in OT to Manhattan by a point when Manhattan was on the road.
Well, we have another Manhattan team on the road at Niagara again. Manhattan has covered this series the last 3/4 years and having followed basketball a while, this team has only gotten better each year which can be attributed to their solid coaching.
In fact, they are a team that is very focused on the road as they are 17-4 ATS in thier last 22 ballgames and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. That's right, if you had wagered on Manhattan basketball the last 10 ballgames against the spread, you would have come out a winner 80% of the time.
In fact, the underdog is - ready for this - 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.
On top of all that, Manhattan is 4-1 ATS at Niagara of late, and remember that treacherous spread I was talking about of 5.5 - well Niagara doesn't handle that mark well as they are 2-7 ATS as a favorite by that margin and in fact, not a good home cover overall as they are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home ball games.
How has each team done against relative and similar competition - well - about the same with Manhattan getting the slight edge much like Portland State yesterday against Montana.
In fact, this game is very similar if you take out the revenge angle.
Let me point this out before I fail to mention it - if you place this spread at 6, the game has been decided by 6 points or less the last 5/6 years.
Back to the similar competitions between these squads:
Manhattan beats Loyola Maryland on the road by 2 as 5.5 dogs (similar to today).
Niagara loses by 1 to LMaryland on the road by 1 in OT but covers the 4.5 spread (another 4.5-5.5 spread covered).
Manhattan beats Iona on the road by 10 - Niagara beats them b 1 at home.
Manhatan beats Rider by 11 as a 6 point chalk at home, Niagara beats them by 1 on the road.
Manhattan beats Fairfield by 4 at home, Niagara loses to Farifield by 12 on the road.
Manhattan plays Marist and beats them by 1 at home.
Niagara beats Marist by 12 on the road - but that was revenge b/c they lost to them at home in overtime by 5 - so this doesn't worry me.
So, in short, Manhattan is catching points in a game they could win outright, which is what I like to play, and I'll definitely want to take this at 6 regardless of the line movement - even if I have to buy the 1/2 point. This rivalry has a good record of the road team covering b/c of the close games and the tough spread as a home chalk of 5.5 - this game has been historically close, 2 evenly matched teams as I think Manhattan has a 45/55 shot at winning outright so I'll take the points and the trends as Niagara is typically not a good home cover while Manhattan is a solid road cover and cover of late as they are on a 8-2 ATS run.
Also, I try not to wager on any team that shoots a FT% below 65% and Manhattan shoots around 69.7% so that fits the criteria.
This is what I have today -
Good luck today -
IC:SIB
