New Month Begins today as the Books are closed on February.
Up on the week and met my monthly goal of making $1300 to give to my local charity clinic here but just want to point out that including yesterday's moose in the under in the Harvard/Princeton game that went to double OT - heck, it was under after the first OT (Harvard/Princeton Under)
FEBRUARY 10TH TOP PLAY
Dartmouth +11.5 - 2 Units - If anyone sees +12 - Please let me know
Honorable Mention: Michigan over Minny (I have it at 17)
I've thought about this over and over a good bit, and I finally decided on Dartmouth rather than Minnesota.
The total in this game is 102, I can't ignore that and the fact that 11.5 points are being given on this total, which is roughly 10% of the game much like Harvard yesterday but in fact a bit better.
Why is this total this high?
A couple of reasons with one being Dartmouth's record, their relative unattractiveness to betters typicall as compared to Princeton which is more of an attractive team historically to bet on, it is Satuday so the faves are jacked up typically and yesterday's ATS loss by Dartmough when they got beat by 20.
Well, Princeton is no Penn State and they can't put up that many points b/c if you remember, Dartmouth hung in for the most part and today, I think they will play their heart out to make up for yesterday and then some.
Historically, these two teams always play close games:
PRINC 63 - DART 60 (-3)
DART 49 - PRINC 52 (-3)
PRINC 65 - DART 54 (11)
DART 50 - PRINC 42 (-8)
DART 59 - PRINC 64 (-5)
PRINC 61 - DART 45 (16)
DART 60 - PRINC 70 (10)
PRINC 57 - DART 52 (5)
PRINC 79 - DART 68 (11)
DART 46 - PRINC 57 (11)
What does this mean?
Dartmouth would have covered this spread 9 out of the last 10 games these two teams would have played, and of course, you know the oddsmakers known this and hence, a 11.5 spread.
So, tack on revenge here, Dartmouth off a loss, Princeton off a Double-OT win and might be a bit tired, I think Dartmouth loses by 5 today by 56-51.
Hence, another underdog that could possibly win outright.
Besides, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games in this series, Princeton is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 games and they are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 Ivy League ballgames.
Finally, the Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Dartmouth Big Green are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Princeton.
So, in recap, revenge, the point spread percentage differential, the historic background of this series, the underdog and road team typically covers, princeton's lack of covering of late, princeton's double-ot win could be tired and finally Dartmouth coming off a tough loss and Princeton shouldn't be laying this many points to another competitive Ivy team.
If Dartmouth loses, then they lose by 14 with free throws late, but again, I feel they lose by 5 - (51-56).
Take care fellas,
IC
Up on the week and met my monthly goal of making $1300 to give to my local charity clinic here but just want to point out that including yesterday's moose in the under in the Harvard/Princeton game that went to double OT - heck, it was under after the first OT (Harvard/Princeton Under)
FEBRUARY 10TH TOP PLAY
Dartmouth +11.5 - 2 Units - If anyone sees +12 - Please let me know
Honorable Mention: Michigan over Minny (I have it at 17)
I've thought about this over and over a good bit, and I finally decided on Dartmouth rather than Minnesota.
The total in this game is 102, I can't ignore that and the fact that 11.5 points are being given on this total, which is roughly 10% of the game much like Harvard yesterday but in fact a bit better.
Why is this total this high?
A couple of reasons with one being Dartmouth's record, their relative unattractiveness to betters typicall as compared to Princeton which is more of an attractive team historically to bet on, it is Satuday so the faves are jacked up typically and yesterday's ATS loss by Dartmough when they got beat by 20.
Well, Princeton is no Penn State and they can't put up that many points b/c if you remember, Dartmouth hung in for the most part and today, I think they will play their heart out to make up for yesterday and then some.
Historically, these two teams always play close games:
PRINC 63 - DART 60 (-3)
DART 49 - PRINC 52 (-3)
PRINC 65 - DART 54 (11)
DART 50 - PRINC 42 (-8)
DART 59 - PRINC 64 (-5)
PRINC 61 - DART 45 (16)
DART 60 - PRINC 70 (10)
PRINC 57 - DART 52 (5)
PRINC 79 - DART 68 (11)
DART 46 - PRINC 57 (11)
What does this mean?
Dartmouth would have covered this spread 9 out of the last 10 games these two teams would have played, and of course, you know the oddsmakers known this and hence, a 11.5 spread.
So, tack on revenge here, Dartmouth off a loss, Princeton off a Double-OT win and might be a bit tired, I think Dartmouth loses by 5 today by 56-51.
Hence, another underdog that could possibly win outright.
Besides, the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games in this series, Princeton is 0-6 ATS in the last 6 games and they are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 Ivy League ballgames.
Finally, the Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings and the Dartmouth Big Green are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Princeton.
So, in recap, revenge, the point spread percentage differential, the historic background of this series, the underdog and road team typically covers, princeton's lack of covering of late, princeton's double-ot win could be tired and finally Dartmouth coming off a tough loss and Princeton shouldn't be laying this many points to another competitive Ivy team.
If Dartmouth loses, then they lose by 14 with free throws late, but again, I feel they lose by 5 - (51-56).
Take care fellas,
IC
