Honorable Mentions: #4 Virginia Tech - I think they bounce back huge against BC - heck, they beat Duke on the road and UNC at home - BC is getting too much respect here in my opinion - the line is a bit ridiculous. However, I liked these 5 more. #5 on my list was the University of Washington +8.5 over Arizona - Arizona is just ridiculous, not even top 5 in their conference and shouldn't be laying points and I'm tired of people putting up excuses for them. Hell, I wish I could play both Va Tech and 'Zona but have to lay off as I've never put out more than 3 plays with the recent betting philosophy that I have. #6 was South Carolina b/c my Tide are a horrible home cover and S.Carolina is playing well lately but I sitll want to see if my Tide gets their ears rung by Coach G today so I will lay off that one. Plus, I don't think South Carolina scores enough points for my comfort and they are relatively small
February 3rd Top Plays:
Duquesne +1 (3 Units) - 2pm
I love the Dukes today. This team is getting no respect given how well they have played of late. I made a note last time that I think they upset Xavier and they did but because Xavier dominated St. Bonny's I held off.
Speaking of that, guess who the Dukes play today - St. Bonny's. Duquesne is one of the best playing teams proportionally to their ranking. What does all that hooplah mean? The Dukes are a top 200 team in my book but they are playing at a top 120 level which is a difference of 80 slots and they are continually moving up in the power rankings.
You can tell me all the stories about Duquesne as you want, but just know that this team dominated Xavier, I mean dominated them as the final score is not indicative of the earlier shalacking they gave this team. What worries me is the possible let down but the difference here is too much to bear for me so I have to ride them.
Duquesne has now defeated top 65 Xavie at home, beat top 170 Temple at home by 4, and beat top 100 Dayton at home by 4. During that span, they scored 93, 96 and 93 points which is proof that they can flat out shoot the ball.
How have they done on the road - not bad - not bad at all as they have defeated St. Louis on the road a top 90 team by 10 points and even beat Boston College back on December 28th if you remember that upset by 5 points. Guess how many they scored on BC that day? You guessed it - 98 points.
St. Bonny did beat La Salle at home but La Salle is a fickle team on the road. St. Bonny also beat Richmond on the road, but Richmond is a top 330 team and I wouldn't trust them with my dead beat Dog.
Furthermore, Xavier beat this team by 26 and you ready for this? St. Bonny's 5 wins come against the following teams and their respective power rankings: Alcorn State - top 320, Central Arkansas by 5 a top 280 team, Central Conn by 3 a top 210 team on the road, St. Louis by 5 a top 90 team at home (but the Dukes beat them on the road by 10) and La Salle and Richmond as you know.
So, in short, I get a top 120 team on the road against a top 250 team - should be a great ball game but I like the Dukes.
The Dukes are 8-1 ATS on the road and the Bonnies are 0-5 ATS as small favorites at home. What do we learn from this? The Dukes are good ATS on the road and the Bonnies are horrible small favs at home.
Also, St. Bonny won by a point last year 77-76 at Duquesne, now the Dukes get to return the favor.
Charlotte Bobcats (-3) - Locked in this morning but I think they win by double-digits frankly (3 Units) - 7pm
The Bobcats are in a great spot here today. They just got pounded by the Cavs which is wonderful as they lost by 20 on the road to Cleveland and even better they lost to the Warriors by 26 on that road trip out west when they beat the Lakers and the Nuggets - but got shalacked recently by them.
They are going to come back in a big way today and beat the snot out of the Warriors in my book who come off that nice win against the Sixers but remember this team is a horrible road team as evidenced by their beating they took at the hands of the Hawks.
The Bobcats are a sound home team and combine their horrible game they just had plus the revenge factor and that the Warriors are 0-6 ATS when playing on 0 days rest and finally the Bobcats are 13-3 of late after allowing over a 100 points in their last game, 8-3 ATS as a favorite and typically a very good home favorite and finally the favorite in this series is 4-1 ATS - all Bobcats today in my book.
Pepperdine +10 (1.5 units) (Take the hook if you have to or just wait till' rises) - I am going to wait on this a bit considering how the Duquesne game works out.
Listen, getting Pepperdine here as a double-digit home dog is a gift in my opinion. I was going to wait to see how the Dukes game turned out but I'm going to roll with this as well.
Pepperdine has played so well of late and I am so glad they come off a 20 point loss to Santa Clara. It makes for a great spot here todas they return to their home to step up in a big way to face Gonzaga who they lost by 17 on the road earlier.
However, you think Pepp wasted their time with that loss. Nope, they defeated Loyola Marymound and St. Mary's CA on the road.
They lost to San Fran by 1 at home, lost to San Diego by 4 at home, lost to Manhattan by 2 at home, lost to CS fullerton by 2 at home, lost by 9 to UC Santa Barbara by 9 at home early in the year and even lost to Washington by just 9 on the road in the first game of the season.
In short, this team has never lost by double-digits at home, regardless of the opponent. In my power ranking system, when a team goes on the road to defeat Loyola Maryland and St. Mary's CA - a top 200 and 120 team - they have the capacity to be a top 80 caliber team.
So, a top 80 squares off against a top 30 team like the Zags equals under a 5 point loss or a 5 point differential which means I have to play it as home court and revenge makes up for the 7 point differential given their previous 17 point loss on the road.
I don't think Pepperdine wins but this will be one of those classic Zaga' wins by a bucket or definitely less than 5 points.
That's what I have fellas, had some rounds this morning but best of luck today.
Take care,
IC
February 3rd Top Plays:
Duquesne +1 (3 Units) - 2pm
I love the Dukes today. This team is getting no respect given how well they have played of late. I made a note last time that I think they upset Xavier and they did but because Xavier dominated St. Bonny's I held off.
Speaking of that, guess who the Dukes play today - St. Bonny's. Duquesne is one of the best playing teams proportionally to their ranking. What does all that hooplah mean? The Dukes are a top 200 team in my book but they are playing at a top 120 level which is a difference of 80 slots and they are continually moving up in the power rankings.
You can tell me all the stories about Duquesne as you want, but just know that this team dominated Xavier, I mean dominated them as the final score is not indicative of the earlier shalacking they gave this team. What worries me is the possible let down but the difference here is too much to bear for me so I have to ride them.
Duquesne has now defeated top 65 Xavie at home, beat top 170 Temple at home by 4, and beat top 100 Dayton at home by 4. During that span, they scored 93, 96 and 93 points which is proof that they can flat out shoot the ball.
How have they done on the road - not bad - not bad at all as they have defeated St. Louis on the road a top 90 team by 10 points and even beat Boston College back on December 28th if you remember that upset by 5 points. Guess how many they scored on BC that day? You guessed it - 98 points.
St. Bonny did beat La Salle at home but La Salle is a fickle team on the road. St. Bonny also beat Richmond on the road, but Richmond is a top 330 team and I wouldn't trust them with my dead beat Dog.
Furthermore, Xavier beat this team by 26 and you ready for this? St. Bonny's 5 wins come against the following teams and their respective power rankings: Alcorn State - top 320, Central Arkansas by 5 a top 280 team, Central Conn by 3 a top 210 team on the road, St. Louis by 5 a top 90 team at home (but the Dukes beat them on the road by 10) and La Salle and Richmond as you know.
So, in short, I get a top 120 team on the road against a top 250 team - should be a great ball game but I like the Dukes.
The Dukes are 8-1 ATS on the road and the Bonnies are 0-5 ATS as small favorites at home. What do we learn from this? The Dukes are good ATS on the road and the Bonnies are horrible small favs at home.
Also, St. Bonny won by a point last year 77-76 at Duquesne, now the Dukes get to return the favor.
Charlotte Bobcats (-3) - Locked in this morning but I think they win by double-digits frankly (3 Units) - 7pm
The Bobcats are in a great spot here today. They just got pounded by the Cavs which is wonderful as they lost by 20 on the road to Cleveland and even better they lost to the Warriors by 26 on that road trip out west when they beat the Lakers and the Nuggets - but got shalacked recently by them.
They are going to come back in a big way today and beat the snot out of the Warriors in my book who come off that nice win against the Sixers but remember this team is a horrible road team as evidenced by their beating they took at the hands of the Hawks.
The Bobcats are a sound home team and combine their horrible game they just had plus the revenge factor and that the Warriors are 0-6 ATS when playing on 0 days rest and finally the Bobcats are 13-3 of late after allowing over a 100 points in their last game, 8-3 ATS as a favorite and typically a very good home favorite and finally the favorite in this series is 4-1 ATS - all Bobcats today in my book.
Pepperdine +10 (1.5 units) (Take the hook if you have to or just wait till' rises) - I am going to wait on this a bit considering how the Duquesne game works out.
Listen, getting Pepperdine here as a double-digit home dog is a gift in my opinion. I was going to wait to see how the Dukes game turned out but I'm going to roll with this as well.
Pepperdine has played so well of late and I am so glad they come off a 20 point loss to Santa Clara. It makes for a great spot here todas they return to their home to step up in a big way to face Gonzaga who they lost by 17 on the road earlier.
However, you think Pepp wasted their time with that loss. Nope, they defeated Loyola Marymound and St. Mary's CA on the road.
They lost to San Fran by 1 at home, lost to San Diego by 4 at home, lost to Manhattan by 2 at home, lost to CS fullerton by 2 at home, lost by 9 to UC Santa Barbara by 9 at home early in the year and even lost to Washington by just 9 on the road in the first game of the season.
In short, this team has never lost by double-digits at home, regardless of the opponent. In my power ranking system, when a team goes on the road to defeat Loyola Maryland and St. Mary's CA - a top 200 and 120 team - they have the capacity to be a top 80 caliber team.
So, a top 80 squares off against a top 30 team like the Zags equals under a 5 point loss or a 5 point differential which means I have to play it as home court and revenge makes up for the 7 point differential given their previous 17 point loss on the road.
I don't think Pepperdine wins but this will be one of those classic Zaga' wins by a bucket or definitely less than 5 points.
That's what I have fellas, had some rounds this morning but best of luck today.
Take care,
IC
