Yesterday was a big day as I nearly doubled my profit for this month - just goes to show, it's about staying the game and eventually, if the picks are sound, the climb will happen. In essence, it's like a cycling race or even a poker tournament, just wait for your opportunity and make your moves. In fact, I think anyone can pick ball games as we all get on hot/cold streaks, but the winners seem to be the ones that stays disciplined, have a bank management plan and do not tilt.
Bobcats - 3 Units - Winner
Duquesne - 3 Units - Winner
Pepperdine - 1.5 Units - Loser
+4.35 units after juice.
*Notes - My card was sound yesterday, but should have rolled with South Carolina depite it being a road dog to fade my Tide and should have had that for just a unit rather than Pepperdine.. But, besides that, I was please. Just one play today and it won't be on the Super Bowl although I like the Bears with the points - I have the Bears at a 45% chance to win and the points seem nice especially in shady weather.
FEBRUARY 4th TOP PLAY - 1pm gametime
St. Peters +13.5 -(1.5 Units) although it is +14 at Pinnacle - but that doesn't do me any good -lol.
Couple things, to me any team that has a better than 30% chance of winning is called a live dog.
St. Peters is a live dog - hell, did you think that Iona would be a live dog yesterday against Siena when they lost by a point and nearly won outright as a 16 point underdog?
Now, that could have been a fluke but I don't think so as both of these teams have been playing relatively even of late although their records do not show it.
St. Peters is a top 330 team admittedly and for that reason, this is just a 1.5 unit wager, plus, this is about a bankroll, and there is no reason for me to bust it on Sunday after winning on Saturday - lol, thus, less than 35% of winnings (+4.35 units) go into today - 1.5 units. Remember, it's not who makes the best picks, that's just half the deal, it's also who manages their money.
Back to St. Peters - yes, they are a top 330 team but on the road, they are a top 250 team.
Let me dish out some facts now:
St. Peters loses to Rider by a 1 point at home.
Siena loses to Rider on the road by 6.
St. Peters loses at Fairfield by 8 while Siena loses to Fairfield at home - on Fairfield Revenge by 5 - both equivalent in rankings as 8 on the road and 5 at home is about the same.
St. Peters loses at Marist by 9 while Siena loses at home to Marist by 9 - although i was in OT but regardless, even in power ranking strength.
Now, these have just been the latest games of result and in conference play, this late in the season, the underdog typically has the advantage as they have gotten their acts together by now but their records nor the spreads indicate this.
With a team that is 1-9 on the road, why would you bet on them - it's value and they are playing equitable to Siena right now, granted they could implode, but I'll take the chance they won't for 1.5 units.
Finally, the line is moving in my favor which is important as I've mentioned before when a road dog gets bought down or a home dog gets bought down as it doesn't matter to me if the favorite gets jacked up in the case of Siena vs. Iona yesterday.
The Peacocks are 4-1 ATS as an underdog greater than 13 points or greater &
and Siena is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 13 points or greater.
In review, the Peacocks cover well in-conference against big spreads and they are playing well against similar competition and the Saints are not good home covers with such big spreads.
Besides, the Peacock is the National Bird of India and I don't think it will let me down today - lol.
Take care fellas,
IC
Bobcats - 3 Units - Winner
Duquesne - 3 Units - Winner
Pepperdine - 1.5 Units - Loser
+4.35 units after juice.
*Notes - My card was sound yesterday, but should have rolled with South Carolina depite it being a road dog to fade my Tide and should have had that for just a unit rather than Pepperdine.. But, besides that, I was please. Just one play today and it won't be on the Super Bowl although I like the Bears with the points - I have the Bears at a 45% chance to win and the points seem nice especially in shady weather.
FEBRUARY 4th TOP PLAY - 1pm gametime
St. Peters +13.5 -(1.5 Units) although it is +14 at Pinnacle - but that doesn't do me any good -lol.
Couple things, to me any team that has a better than 30% chance of winning is called a live dog.
St. Peters is a live dog - hell, did you think that Iona would be a live dog yesterday against Siena when they lost by a point and nearly won outright as a 16 point underdog?
Now, that could have been a fluke but I don't think so as both of these teams have been playing relatively even of late although their records do not show it.
St. Peters is a top 330 team admittedly and for that reason, this is just a 1.5 unit wager, plus, this is about a bankroll, and there is no reason for me to bust it on Sunday after winning on Saturday - lol, thus, less than 35% of winnings (+4.35 units) go into today - 1.5 units. Remember, it's not who makes the best picks, that's just half the deal, it's also who manages their money.
Back to St. Peters - yes, they are a top 330 team but on the road, they are a top 250 team.
Let me dish out some facts now:
St. Peters loses to Rider by a 1 point at home.
Siena loses to Rider on the road by 6.
St. Peters loses at Fairfield by 8 while Siena loses to Fairfield at home - on Fairfield Revenge by 5 - both equivalent in rankings as 8 on the road and 5 at home is about the same.
St. Peters loses at Marist by 9 while Siena loses at home to Marist by 9 - although i was in OT but regardless, even in power ranking strength.
Now, these have just been the latest games of result and in conference play, this late in the season, the underdog typically has the advantage as they have gotten their acts together by now but their records nor the spreads indicate this.
With a team that is 1-9 on the road, why would you bet on them - it's value and they are playing equitable to Siena right now, granted they could implode, but I'll take the chance they won't for 1.5 units.
Finally, the line is moving in my favor which is important as I've mentioned before when a road dog gets bought down or a home dog gets bought down as it doesn't matter to me if the favorite gets jacked up in the case of Siena vs. Iona yesterday.
The Peacocks are 4-1 ATS as an underdog greater than 13 points or greater &
and Siena is 1-5 ATS as a home favorite of 13 points or greater.
In review, the Peacocks cover well in-conference against big spreads and they are playing well against similar competition and the Saints are not good home covers with such big spreads.
Besides, the Peacock is the National Bird of India and I don't think it will let me down today - lol.
Take care fellas,
IC
