1-2 Mad Jack's record.
Total of 3 plays, Nets posted on other forum. Irritaed I missed out a play on Michigan State, Miss State and Vandy yesterday - congrats to those who had those calls.
USC - +1 (1unit)
This is a semi-ballzy play on my end as quite many people like Stanford, but I love USC and have been high on them all year. I had them when they played Zona and won at home.
USC is underrated - very underrated. Call me nuts, but I think this team has a great chance at the Elite 8 this season and is one of my 10 teams to come on as a surprise to win the national championship - Yes, I know, you think IC is a nutcase for thinking that, however, to each his own but I am that high on this team.
Did you know that USC is 7-1 as a small underdog. Yes, USC is 7-1 as small Underdogs. Granted this line is changing as I write this but they were originally placed as underdogs and the simple fact that the public is 50/50 shows that this team has drastically increased in the image of everyone as a team that is quite good.
I want you to take a look at their track record as regardless if they cover tonight, I hope more people realize that this is not the USC team of year's past - hell, they lost to UCLA by a point, yes a team that is good enough to be #1 in the land in UCLA by a point.
This team lost that first game to South Carolina which I attribute solely to that being their first game basically and then soon after have reeled off the following wins:
Defeating Wichita State, Washington, lost a tough game to Washington State at home, only to defeat Oregon by a bucket on the road - a very tough feat - routed Oregon State by around 50 on the road, then lost the tough game to UCLA at home by a point, only to defeat Arizona and Arizona State and now head on the road to play Stanford.
Stanford is no Oregon and USC has played a tougher road schedule in tougher games I feel such as the game against Kansas where they lost by 10 points on the road - another game that I was on - basically I feel that this team is so good yet many do not realize how good - in fact, I expect them to be in the top 25 by March and once again, they are good enough in my book to be in the Elite 8 and even final 4.
USC is playing at a level of top 20 in the nation right now, while Stanford lost on the road to Oregon by 9, although they did defeat Washington State at home, but lost at home to California and lost on the road to Arizona by double-digits. In fact, this team lost to Santa Clara at home by 14 points and Air Force by 30+ at home.
I can't trust this Stanford team, I just can't while I do trust USC and more particular I love their coach, look what he's done w/these kids in just a few years and they will be a force in the years to come in the PAC.
This is going to be a brutally tough game, but I think USC wins and maybe even in a rout.
The Trojans are 5-0 of late as underdogs, 7-1 in their last 8 games as small underdogs as previously stated and a solid 10-2 ATS against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600% - not to mention 4-1 ATS in-conference play of late.
The Cardinals have some admittedly good stats supporting them, but the two that I focused on were that they are 0-7 ATS against teams with a SU winning record and 2-5 ATS as small home favorites which means that when expected to play tough against teams of their caliber of slightly better (as the line is shifted towards the home team a bit more) - they fail. USC for 1 unit although was tempted to make 2 units.
Besides, the line is moving towards USC which is another decent positive indicator on the selection.
3) San Jose State +13 (1unit)
I can hear the boo birds on this selection, but I like it for a couple reasons. First of all, you ready for this stat:
Hawaii is 8-24-1 as home favorites against teams with a winning percentage of .400% or less. You always have to keep an eye out for teams that have a horrible record, but when conference play comes around, they turn it up a notch, much like
Furthermore, the Rainbow Warriors are 0-7-1 in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning percentage of .400% or below.
What does this mean? Just that Hawaii plays down to their competition it seems as evidenced by their road losses of late losing to Idaho who is a top 300 team by 1 point, and losing to Boise State a top 100 team by 11 points on the road.
San Jose State is nothing overly special, but they are 4-1 ATS on the road against a team with a winning record, as they play up to their competition or at least attempt to. Also, once again, I love teams that are playing better w/in conference after starting out slow for increased value:
Spartans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Spartans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Spartans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Athletic.
Not bad stats right?
Besides, cut this team some slack - their last 4 games:
They lost by 6 to New Mexico State a top 70 team, they lost by 9 to Nevada a top 20 team in the nation, they beat Fresno State outright by 3 at home a top 100 team, and while others thought they would go on the road and lose to Fresno State with Fresno having revenge and all as the home victory was a fluke, they nearly won outright again as 15 point dogs as they fell short by 3 points. They even went toe to toe with a good Utah State team who is top 90 in the nation and lost by 1 at home.
This is a test for them I know, and Hawaii comes off a tough road trip, but I'm willing to put a unit of confidence of San Jose State. Besides, a great fade on the public as well.
* I know sometimes I advocate a team like an attorney, but I just need to make my case so as to give myself the reasoning behind a pick - in other words, I do it for myself so I can come to terms with whatever the result might be.
Finally, San Jose State has the return of their best player and Hawaii's coaching staff is basically in ruins and not coming back next year, so the play has some more value based on that.
Honorable Mentions:
Clemson - Great play here on Clemson but just liked the other 3 on the card more (Nets in the NBA)
Florida International - but they are banged up with injuries, so not touching the play, although the line was off by 4 points.
Finally, I think Idaho rolls tonight as they are 7-0 ATS after a SU loss despite Weber State barely losing to them and the line is moving their way, I just think they win by 15 points or better, but I laid off the game b/c I like the other 3 and I'll roll with that for now.
Total of 3 plays, Nets posted on other forum. Irritaed I missed out a play on Michigan State, Miss State and Vandy yesterday - congrats to those who had those calls.
USC - +1 (1unit)
This is a semi-ballzy play on my end as quite many people like Stanford, but I love USC and have been high on them all year. I had them when they played Zona and won at home.
USC is underrated - very underrated. Call me nuts, but I think this team has a great chance at the Elite 8 this season and is one of my 10 teams to come on as a surprise to win the national championship - Yes, I know, you think IC is a nutcase for thinking that, however, to each his own but I am that high on this team.
Did you know that USC is 7-1 as a small underdog. Yes, USC is 7-1 as small Underdogs. Granted this line is changing as I write this but they were originally placed as underdogs and the simple fact that the public is 50/50 shows that this team has drastically increased in the image of everyone as a team that is quite good.
I want you to take a look at their track record as regardless if they cover tonight, I hope more people realize that this is not the USC team of year's past - hell, they lost to UCLA by a point, yes a team that is good enough to be #1 in the land in UCLA by a point.
This team lost that first game to South Carolina which I attribute solely to that being their first game basically and then soon after have reeled off the following wins:
Defeating Wichita State, Washington, lost a tough game to Washington State at home, only to defeat Oregon by a bucket on the road - a very tough feat - routed Oregon State by around 50 on the road, then lost the tough game to UCLA at home by a point, only to defeat Arizona and Arizona State and now head on the road to play Stanford.
Stanford is no Oregon and USC has played a tougher road schedule in tougher games I feel such as the game against Kansas where they lost by 10 points on the road - another game that I was on - basically I feel that this team is so good yet many do not realize how good - in fact, I expect them to be in the top 25 by March and once again, they are good enough in my book to be in the Elite 8 and even final 4.
USC is playing at a level of top 20 in the nation right now, while Stanford lost on the road to Oregon by 9, although they did defeat Washington State at home, but lost at home to California and lost on the road to Arizona by double-digits. In fact, this team lost to Santa Clara at home by 14 points and Air Force by 30+ at home.
I can't trust this Stanford team, I just can't while I do trust USC and more particular I love their coach, look what he's done w/these kids in just a few years and they will be a force in the years to come in the PAC.
This is going to be a brutally tough game, but I think USC wins and maybe even in a rout.
The Trojans are 5-0 of late as underdogs, 7-1 in their last 8 games as small underdogs as previously stated and a solid 10-2 ATS against teams with a winning percentage greater than .600% - not to mention 4-1 ATS in-conference play of late.
The Cardinals have some admittedly good stats supporting them, but the two that I focused on were that they are 0-7 ATS against teams with a SU winning record and 2-5 ATS as small home favorites which means that when expected to play tough against teams of their caliber of slightly better (as the line is shifted towards the home team a bit more) - they fail. USC for 1 unit although was tempted to make 2 units.
Besides, the line is moving towards USC which is another decent positive indicator on the selection.
3) San Jose State +13 (1unit)
I can hear the boo birds on this selection, but I like it for a couple reasons. First of all, you ready for this stat:
Hawaii is 8-24-1 as home favorites against teams with a winning percentage of .400% or less. You always have to keep an eye out for teams that have a horrible record, but when conference play comes around, they turn it up a notch, much like
Furthermore, the Rainbow Warriors are 0-7-1 in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning percentage of .400% or below.
What does this mean? Just that Hawaii plays down to their competition it seems as evidenced by their road losses of late losing to Idaho who is a top 300 team by 1 point, and losing to Boise State a top 100 team by 11 points on the road.
San Jose State is nothing overly special, but they are 4-1 ATS on the road against a team with a winning record, as they play up to their competition or at least attempt to. Also, once again, I love teams that are playing better w/in conference after starting out slow for increased value:
Spartans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Spartans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Spartans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Athletic.
Not bad stats right?
Besides, cut this team some slack - their last 4 games:
They lost by 6 to New Mexico State a top 70 team, they lost by 9 to Nevada a top 20 team in the nation, they beat Fresno State outright by 3 at home a top 100 team, and while others thought they would go on the road and lose to Fresno State with Fresno having revenge and all as the home victory was a fluke, they nearly won outright again as 15 point dogs as they fell short by 3 points. They even went toe to toe with a good Utah State team who is top 90 in the nation and lost by 1 at home.
This is a test for them I know, and Hawaii comes off a tough road trip, but I'm willing to put a unit of confidence of San Jose State. Besides, a great fade on the public as well.
* I know sometimes I advocate a team like an attorney, but I just need to make my case so as to give myself the reasoning behind a pick - in other words, I do it for myself so I can come to terms with whatever the result might be.
Finally, San Jose State has the return of their best player and Hawaii's coaching staff is basically in ruins and not coming back next year, so the play has some more value based on that.
Honorable Mentions:
Clemson - Great play here on Clemson but just liked the other 3 on the card more (Nets in the NBA)
Florida International - but they are banged up with injuries, so not touching the play, although the line was off by 4 points.
Finally, I think Idaho rolls tonight as they are 7-0 ATS after a SU loss despite Weber State barely losing to them and the line is moving their way, I just think they win by 15 points or better, but I laid off the game b/c I like the other 3 and I'll roll with that for now.
