The Super Bowl is the most-wagered event in the world of sports. Over $10 Billion is expected to be wagered.
Fittingly, it is also the most (over)analyzed event, and everybody with a computer or a voice has an opinion.
I think I have seen every trend and stat pertaining to this particular match-up, and it isn't difficult to make a very convincing case for either side.
I have a remarkable lifetime Super Bowl record, though I couldn't tell you what it is. I remember winning 9 out of 10 years in the late 80-s thru late 90's. And I also remember losing 4 out of 5 years in the '00s.
None of that matters, or has anything to do with this matchup, which on paper, appears to be a toss-up.
The things that sway me with my first-instinct gut pick of Pittsburgh are intangibles:
1) Experience. Everybody knows this is Pitt 3rd SB in 6 years, and Ben Roethlisberger was winning QB in those 2, even though his QB rating was an abysmal 22.5 or something v Seattle. But Steelers sport 54 rings, compared to 1 for current GB roster.
2) Big-game. Coach McCarthy said he was treating it like any other game. Wrong. Maybe the next Super Bowl he is in, he won't say such a silly thing.
3) Photo-gate. The distractions of the controversy not allowing 15 IR players in the team photo, and the reactions of GB players ( Rodgers especially) create a concern for me.
4) Close games. Pittsburgh went 6-2 in games decided byless than 6 points this year. GB only 3-6. In fact, all of GB losses were by 3 or 4 points, and they never trailed by more than 7.
5) Two words: 1) Troy and 2) Polamalu. I know he is slowed a little by the Achilles, but he is a play-maker, and I want to be on his side.
And you can throw out all of the stats, matchups, breakdowns, injuries, history, Madden replays, Hank Stram systems, whatever....the deciding factor for me is going to be:
6) LUCK! I won't bore with details of all of the breaks Pittsburgh has gotten on goal-line calls and end-of game plays, but as a gambler, I know I've been on the wrong side of a BUNCH of them. It is the one intangible that cannot be capped, but is fatal to ignore.
I WOULD RATHER BE LUCKY THAN GOOD>
All you players know in reality , the Big Game is just another game for us, as there are 100 plays or more available every day of the year, but this is the one everyone and their grandmother is interested in. The juice and the payouts are the same as a Iona v Marist college basketball game, but the biggest stage is hosting this one, with the two full weeks of hype, and an offseason to second-guess.
My plays are:
Pittsburgh +3 (L)
Pittsburgh ML +130 (L)
Fittingly, it is also the most (over)analyzed event, and everybody with a computer or a voice has an opinion.
I think I have seen every trend and stat pertaining to this particular match-up, and it isn't difficult to make a very convincing case for either side.
I have a remarkable lifetime Super Bowl record, though I couldn't tell you what it is. I remember winning 9 out of 10 years in the late 80-s thru late 90's. And I also remember losing 4 out of 5 years in the '00s.
None of that matters, or has anything to do with this matchup, which on paper, appears to be a toss-up.
The things that sway me with my first-instinct gut pick of Pittsburgh are intangibles:
1) Experience. Everybody knows this is Pitt 3rd SB in 6 years, and Ben Roethlisberger was winning QB in those 2, even though his QB rating was an abysmal 22.5 or something v Seattle. But Steelers sport 54 rings, compared to 1 for current GB roster.
2) Big-game. Coach McCarthy said he was treating it like any other game. Wrong. Maybe the next Super Bowl he is in, he won't say such a silly thing.
3) Photo-gate. The distractions of the controversy not allowing 15 IR players in the team photo, and the reactions of GB players ( Rodgers especially) create a concern for me.
4) Close games. Pittsburgh went 6-2 in games decided byless than 6 points this year. GB only 3-6. In fact, all of GB losses were by 3 or 4 points, and they never trailed by more than 7.
5) Two words: 1) Troy and 2) Polamalu. I know he is slowed a little by the Achilles, but he is a play-maker, and I want to be on his side.
And you can throw out all of the stats, matchups, breakdowns, injuries, history, Madden replays, Hank Stram systems, whatever....the deciding factor for me is going to be:
6) LUCK! I won't bore with details of all of the breaks Pittsburgh has gotten on goal-line calls and end-of game plays, but as a gambler, I know I've been on the wrong side of a BUNCH of them. It is the one intangible that cannot be capped, but is fatal to ignore.
I WOULD RATHER BE LUCKY THAN GOOD>
All you players know in reality , the Big Game is just another game for us, as there are 100 plays or more available every day of the year, but this is the one everyone and their grandmother is interested in. The juice and the payouts are the same as a Iona v Marist college basketball game, but the biggest stage is hosting this one, with the two full weeks of hype, and an offseason to second-guess.
My plays are:
Pittsburgh +3 (L)
Pittsburgh ML +130 (L)
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