Idea for NBA over/unders

[stomie]

I was thinking long and hard last night about how many times I lost an under because the game went into overtime. Has anyone tried to pick the over on spreads of under 3 or 4 points the entire season? My thinking is a close spread means more of a probability of OT thus increasing the odds of hitting the over. I don't now if the juice will kill this theory in the long run or not.

Does anyone have any stats on how the over did on spreads of less than 3 or 4 points?

 

[stomie]

I reviewed the this month and 3 and under point spreads seem like a good cut off for overs.

No games today qualify

 

[Eugene Michaels]

Stomie,

For this season, in games with a line of 3.5 or less, the Over is 318-278-10, 53.4%. However, take a look at this breakdown:

Pk - 1.5: 84-60-0, 58.3%
2 - 3.5: 234-218-10, 51.8%

It appears the real value comes in playing the Over in games with a posted line of 1 or 1.5, as this angle is hitting at 58.3% this year. Definitely something worth keeping an eye on.


Good Luck.

 

[Eugene Michaels]

Stomie,

The 58.3% also includes Pick'em games. So the system says to play the Over on games with a line of PICK, 1, or 1.5.


Thanks.

 

[THE KOD]

Stomie,
The 58.3% also includes Pick'em games. So the system says to play the Over on games with a line of PICK, 1, or 1.5.

Thanks.

That makes sense. Good info here.


Scott King of Dogs

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

interesting idea guys....

good stuff.

 

[nitwit]

home fav 170-137 55%
away fav 114-110 51%

doesn't include this year and part of last year but all of the 5 previous seasons- i'll break this down better when i have a chance- this does open up a lot of possibilities- anything to help us win-
later