IE Help?

[Padre]

First i would like to thank you for your help last night on the pitching info u gave me, it was a lot to reveiw.

One more favor please, i know i could do the research myself but thought that you might get results quicker and also gets the info out for everyone.

I came across this last year from this payservice (***** supersystems for MLB)

Could you check all 11 of these for me for validity (since "94) and also check them for
this year only. thanks


1. Play the UNDER on any home underdog playing off of 4 straight losses regardless of their locations versus a divisional foe. The UNDER is 25-10 since '94 through JUly 22,1999.

2. PLay on a home dog who is off five straight losses exact regardless of opponent. Record is 40-44 but a whopping 1049 units and the under is 49-30 for 62%. Parlay the under with this situation and you will be very glad you had over the course of a season.

3. Play againest a home favorite who is off of 5 straight losses exact. The visiting dog would have made you 1411 units on just a 18-13 win/loss record. Plus here again a parlay situation arises... by playing the under in these situations which went 19-12 for 61%.

4. PLay on a home favorite of -200 or higher who has won 3 straight games. This is nearly perfect since 1994 going 8-1 and a plus 610 units.

5. Play the OVER when any team is off 5 straight wins exact and is playing a divisional opponent. THe over is 38-27 (60%) since 1994.

6. Play the OVER when the home favorite is off of 3 straight losses installed as a -200 or higher chalk. THe OVER in the situation is 8-1 since 1994.

7. PLay on a home dog who is off 5 straight wins playing a division opponent. This live dog is just 8-7 but produces net units of plus 339 since 1994.

8. Play againest any home dog who is off three straight wins and three straight overs exact. This system has produced a record of 31-16 for a plus 1145 units since 1994. IN case you were curious the OVER is 27-20 in this role.

9. PLay on any team who is off 9 straight OVERS exact regardless of location or line. Teams in this role, which is rare indeed are 11-9 for a plus 519 units and the under is 14-6 for 70%.

10. Well you thought the Under was DUE in Number 9 anyway ? check this one out. Teams off 10 straight unders regardless of line or location are 8-1 UNDER again since 1994.

11. HOme dogs off of three straight UNDERS are 25-10 OVER (73.4%) since 1994.


Well that is all of them from this one, my guess is that he included pushes in some of these runs also his units are inflated ALOT.

Also by reading it it sounds as if i got this after 7-22-99. So check his results againest 1994 through 7-22-99. please and if it just seem that these are some good systems then check for last season and this season.

If you dont mind so much homework, i have tone of these that i have collected over the years.

i doubt that any of this is any good , i think personally he infalted these systems and units to promote his site. He probally didnt think anyone would take the time to check his results.

THanks sooooo much IE , hopefully im wrong and these look good and can benefit everyone.

PAdre

 

[Investment Executive]

can't do it tonight...but will get it done by the end of the weekend.

 

[Padre]

Thanks IE , just remember its just a mid-term. The final gets a lot harder, so take your time.

Padre

 

[pepin46]

padre, ie, all:

i don't want to start an argument, i merely want to state an opinion and let it go at that:

i can take the last ten thousand, 100 thou, whatever, spins of the roulette wheel and present you with some mind-boggling statistics. now, if i did it to sell you something, it may very well be worth the effort, although i would feel i'd be cheating you.

this stuff of going back 4 years, even jt mentioned an umps o/u record over the last 4 years. what do these long-term stats have to do with the present? of course all these stats are going to be off, some will be over, some under, some right on target. so we pick the ones that are way off at this moment, in the hope that they will keep their trend? what trend?

we can take one specific sample from this year: tampa bay. as long as they kept losing, they were getting as close to 2x1 as you can get, regardless of the pitching opponent. now, once they started a streak, it gets back down to earth and probably over-adjusted, actually working in the favor of chalk. maybe they are not at that point yet, but could be if they hit another 4 of 5 or so. this will keep changing throughout the year, and will apply to almost any team that goes streaky.

what does it mean, when we choose this particular period in time to "cut-off" these stats? these stats will be adjusting themselves forever and ever, and in the end, they will all be very close to 50%. and certainly that does not mean they go up or down in an orderly fashion. and don't forget the odds; they are not constant and always keep getting adjusted.

this stuff makes for interesting reading, like ripley's believe it or not, but to put money on it, believing it works to your advantage, well, you have a 50-50 chance, more or less, and you may very well hit that same streak for a while, or get in the middle of the opposite streak and get burned.

short-term trends, developing trends, yes, very definitely, especially when applied to certain pitchers and bullpens, like ie has been following, as vegas takes just a bit to react, giving you a couple of shots to your advantage in between. still, it does not mean they will be winners, they just tilt the odds slightly in your favor. this goes right into the heart of "handicapping", where you look for value, not necessarily "locks".

i will read any other posts, but this is my only one here.


pep

 

[Investment Executive]

pepin , i would not use these stats....either.

as in any sport and especially baseball..the only way to win in the long term is to figure out what percentage the two opposing items...this case teams ..have in winning a particular contest and try to find overlays or underlays...the key is figuring out the percentages....

 

[JT Sneaks]

I agree that it is difficult to see what trends and angles are quality. However I think that many trends from the past will show you how a team may do in the future. For example when I mention that an umpire favors the under in the last four years I do think that is useful because in my opinion that would mean the umpire has a very big strike zone and does not allow as many walks. This year with the expanded strike zone an umpire that has an expanded strike zone already would fit right in. Now it does take some research, if that umpire had under stats but always was an umpire in a game that randy johnson pitched against pedro martinez, than yes it would be a bit decieveing.

There are certain trends that are useless in my opinion, although you may see me post them. Let me explain. I am not a big fan of daily stats...ie:

Boston is 0-19 on wednesdays.

Although it is quite a streak, (and one I made up, of course) this would mean nothing to me. Now if I knew that on tuesday nights the Boston players went to clubs and drank all night, then this would be a trend to follow.

So I agree that if you looked hard enough you can find numbers that will sway in a certain direction that could resemble a nice play, and I also think there are trends out there that are pure crap. I just think it is up to the capper to decide which ones are useful to him/her.

This was an article that was nicely done (for a change) that I found on covers..
http://www.covers.com/lou/


Just my two cents

nice discussion, and nice post pep......

Sneaks