IL 2008 round 6

[gsp]

I usually don't start this thread until after game 1 but there's a couple of things that I think are worth mentioning and if you pay attention it might keep you out of trouble. As un-interleague (is that a word) as this last series went I still managed a profit and if I had stuck to my guns would have done even better. With all the dogs and in many cases road dogs, the team that won game 1 still won the series 11-2. So far this year the team that won game 1, won the series 52-17 or 75% of the time. This is the one stat that has remained consistant all the years I've been doing this, even this year.

In the past, I've would have killed the books yesterday instead of doing just so-so. Oak and Hou were the only two home favs that won game 1 and lost game 2. Both winners. I would have doubled my bet on both (which I did) and not have played CC and Cinn regardless.

If you put this in the back of your head and use it when cappin, it might save or make you money. After the first game, 75% of the game one winners are going to win 1 of the next 2 games. This is not a chase system but remember this per centage is working for or against you when cappin games 2 and 3.

I'm still considering home favs first, fav second, and hometeams last. With a lot of help I might play a road dog but it will have to be with a lot of help and it will have to be after game 1.

Good luck to us in the final round this year.

 

[gsp]

Tor and a late line move turned a great night into a so-so night. At the time I posted, Phil was the clear fav and the call was for the fav. At gametime the game was a pk and in my book the hometeam is the fav. It was a terrible night to be playing over's. Here's how it looked. If you looked for home favs first you probably had a good night.

HT-------------9-5
Fav-------------9-5
HF--------------7-3
Totals---------5-9

Today I'm looking for home favs that won last night and are fav again today.

You don't see this often. 12 of 14 games were decided by 2 or more runs. If you want to enclude Fla, make that 13 of 15.

 

[gsp]

Game 2 looked like they were trying to make-up for game 1.

HT------------6-8
Fav-----------5-9
HF------------3-6
Totals-------6-8

Team that won game 1 wins series-----5

As I said, in PK games I consider the ht as the fav. Yesterday we had 3 games go off as pk'ems. The road team won all three.

There are 9 series that are undecided. There are 5 game 1 winners that lost game 2 and are favs today. KC, Cle, and Oak are at home, TB and Bos on the road. Even tho I had a terrible day, I'll stick to my guns and consider these first.

Good luck in game 3

 

[gsp]

Here's the stats for game 3

HT------------8-6
Fav-----------6-8
HF------------4-4
Totals-------4-10

Teams that won game 1 wins series---9-5

Here's how round 6 looked

HT---------------23-19
Fav---------------20-22
HF----------------14-13
Totals------------15-27

3 AL teams swept, Sea as a road dog in every game. Det and CWS were the other two. No NL teams.

This has to be the oddest IL round I remember seeing. Don't remember ever seeing the dogs win more than the favs. Part of that might be that there were more pk'em games than usual and the road team won more of them than usual.

I didn't have a great IL sereis but came out ahead and guess that's what's important. Game 2 hurt but yesterday gave most of it back. There were 5 favs yesterday that had won game 1 and lost game 2. 4 of them lost. TB was the only winner.

Even with everything appearing to go backward to what I though it should, next year I'll still look for the home favs first, favs second, and home teams in that order.