Indiana/Minnesota
- Thread starter Coach_K
- Start date
I don't understand...Indiana is so much better and minnesota is not a bad place to play compared to the rest of the big ten.
I guess vegas will get me again like they did last night with ttech
Any insight why vegas thinks minnesota will win would be appreciated.
GL
I guess vegas will get me again like they did last night with ttech
Any insight why vegas thinks minnesota will win would be appreciated.
GL
IU coming off a game that they didn't look too impressive...down 4 at half at home to a weak Illinois team. Only beat a bad Iowa team by 3 on the road a week ago.
Minnesota is undefeated at home, but against horrible teams. This is the kind of win they would need to be considered to make the tournament. They played well at MSU & were down 1 with a couple minutes left. Look for Minny to step up on defense tonight, will take a look at the 1st half under.
Minnesota is undefeated at home, but against horrible teams. This is the kind of win they would need to be considered to make the tournament. They played well at MSU & were down 1 with a couple minutes left. Look for Minny to step up on defense tonight, will take a look at the 1st half under.
Here's my take:
IU is 2-8 SU in its last ten games up in Minnesota. The Hoosiers have won more times in Illinois, Wisconsin and Purdue in that stretch than they have up in Minny and for the part those foes fielded tougher teams than the Gophers. Historically just a bad spot for Indiana.
Actually, I would take the other side of Coach K's thought that Minny is not a tough place to play. Its very tough. If Minny had some good teams at all, we'd be calling it one of the best home court edges around. But because the Gophers have been average for the most part it gets left out of the discussion as far as toughest places to play.
Do you follow the Big 12? If so, I would liken Minny's success up there to the way Iowa State plays at home. Hilton Magic. But, in this case Williams Arena Magic. Or, better put, The Barn Magic.
Maybe its the elevated floor. Maybe the dim lighting. Maybe the cold temps (not outside, but inside its not a very warm in there). I think visiting teams take a while just to adjust the the quirkiness of the place.
Plus, even in bad times, Gopher fans pack that place and get it rocking when the home team is on a run.
Tonight is not bad times. Tubby has this club playing tough basketball. Place will be electric with a top-10 team and the ESPN cameras in the Barn. Tubby also knows a thing or two about beating Indiana.....sigh.
Personally, I think my Hoosiers have the type of team to get over the hump tonight.....but will not be risking any money on that hope......just going to be a big fan in this one!!
Go IU......but good luck on whomever you play otherwise. :toast:
IU is 2-8 SU in its last ten games up in Minnesota. The Hoosiers have won more times in Illinois, Wisconsin and Purdue in that stretch than they have up in Minny and for the part those foes fielded tougher teams than the Gophers. Historically just a bad spot for Indiana.
Actually, I would take the other side of Coach K's thought that Minny is not a tough place to play. Its very tough. If Minny had some good teams at all, we'd be calling it one of the best home court edges around. But because the Gophers have been average for the most part it gets left out of the discussion as far as toughest places to play.
Do you follow the Big 12? If so, I would liken Minny's success up there to the way Iowa State plays at home. Hilton Magic. But, in this case Williams Arena Magic. Or, better put, The Barn Magic.
Maybe its the elevated floor. Maybe the dim lighting. Maybe the cold temps (not outside, but inside its not a very warm in there). I think visiting teams take a while just to adjust the the quirkiness of the place.
Plus, even in bad times, Gopher fans pack that place and get it rocking when the home team is on a run.
Tonight is not bad times. Tubby has this club playing tough basketball. Place will be electric with a top-10 team and the ESPN cameras in the Barn. Tubby also knows a thing or two about beating Indiana.....sigh.
Personally, I think my Hoosiers have the type of team to get over the hump tonight.....but will not be risking any money on that hope......just going to be a big fan in this one!!
Go IU......but good luck on whomever you play otherwise. :toast:
Thank you for the insight, I think I may hedge my play a bit and just cheer on IU as well. Although for my badgers it would help if IU went down. I like IU in the elite eight if they get a higher seed. Thanks again, GL to all
1st half under may be the play, should be around 64....at minny, only 1 team has scored over 30 points in the 1st half this year. Like Toledo said, the gym is cold at the start of the game & it's a weird place to play for opponents. Think we see a defensive battle tonight.
I got the 1H total at 66.5 - like the thought behind it and putting a littleon the Under.
very simple
very simple
Vegas wants you to bet Indiana, but the play is Minnesota as a home dog.
very simple
Vegas wants you to bet Indiana, but the play is Minnesota as a home dog.
i never understand this "vegas wants you to bet..."!
vegas wants even action. indiana struggled a little on offense and let illinois get some open shots AT HOME in the last game and tubby smith has the gophers on track and ready to win the not-so-big-eleven. minny should be giving a deuce but the name Indiana gives Vegas the right to make them a road fave here and draw even action. they know they won't get even action if minnesota was favored. eric gordon's been on tv so much so far this year and most people are probably still suspect of tubby smith's squad. i would say that if indiana had rolled illinois then they'd be favored by 5 or 6 and we'd all be here pounding minny plus the points even more.
vegas is never rooting. why do people always say that? like it's the bookie vs. the people? they want their vig. but if they draw one-sided action then yes they're rooting, but they don't want to be. anyone?
Vegas sets plenty of trap games and that is how they clean up. Sure Indiana can win tonight they have better players then Minny. But Vegas does wants Minny to win because everybody is betting on Indiana. If Indiana wins then Vegas loses lots of $$ and if Minny wins then Vegas wins $$$$$$$$$$! Vegas is confident that Minny will win tonight! There are Trap games you can not justify Indy only being -1 I don't care if they struggled in their last game again you are always going back to the last game. The last game means nothing.
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True and that is usually not a good sign but everyone elsewhere is on Indiana trust me that the majority of people will be on Indiana and that is a great sign for us Minny backers!
???? i said that justifying how the line is set. based on how vegas thinks the public views each team. they know indiana has a good rep right now, but that poor performance agains illinois is still fresh in the "public's" mind so they couldn't get away with putting it at 5 or 6.
you're probably right, most bets will be on indiana, but the big ones that matter--all the sharp money--is being put on minny. that's why the line's dropping. they're gonna get close to even action. that's what they do.
btw, i love our rapport, it's nice to have someone to engage in thoughtful debate with. :mj06: :box2:
A couple of things:
1.) Every game is a trap game. Thats why Vegas builds bigger buildings than we handicappers do. :142smilie . Seriously whatever logic you use, Vegas does set a line in order to entice betters onto a certain side....thus, luring them to a side.....what do you lure people into.....a trap!
2.) My question with the oddsmakers is a litte different. Tonights game in question is no different than say last night's Missou at ISU or Tamu and TT game.....yet in both those cases, the home team was catching 5 points......clearly (or maybe not so much) IU is better than Missou and tamu, while Minny is on par with ISU and TTech.....why is Indiana not laying something more significant, then......does the oddsmaker grasp the trends from last night and feel if he gives Minny points like that last night, people will be all over a live home dog? Thats why people are saying the line is begging for IU money. After last night, people may be reluctant to play road chalk, but to take a road pick 'em with a top-10 team, maybe not so much.
3.) This whole site is all over unranked favs. If Minny was -1, rather than the +1/2 they are now, we would be preaching system play. Some are still on Minny, but I've always wondered what does that really tell us about the line and likely outcome if it would be a "certain" system play if they line was just a couple more points in one direction. Does that maybe tip you to IU's direction then.
4.) What does all that circular "logic" above in my first three bullet points prove? The answer is nothing. You best bet is to watch games and break them down accordingly based on your own feelings and insights. never get too caught up in thinking a line is a gift from Vegas or that Vegas is begging people a certain way. They will be making their money somehow, and that is not necessarily the case for us. If we knew how to crack Vegas, we would be sharing these thoughts together......on a beach.....rum drinks in hands.....with cute bahama mamas in bikinis surrounding us....as opposed to anonymously while the boss is not watching while we post on this site.:mj07:
5.) And, I should say its pretty damn cool to see a thread devoted to my alma mater's game.....been a longtime since we were a top-10 team.....and, its good to be home!!!!!
Dare I post an in-game tonight? I might do so.....i certainly will be watching, and if I am home maybe we'll do a thursday night hoops in-game or something.
1.) Every game is a trap game. Thats why Vegas builds bigger buildings than we handicappers do. :142smilie . Seriously whatever logic you use, Vegas does set a line in order to entice betters onto a certain side....thus, luring them to a side.....what do you lure people into.....a trap!
2.) My question with the oddsmakers is a litte different. Tonights game in question is no different than say last night's Missou at ISU or Tamu and TT game.....yet in both those cases, the home team was catching 5 points......clearly (or maybe not so much) IU is better than Missou and tamu, while Minny is on par with ISU and TTech.....why is Indiana not laying something more significant, then......does the oddsmaker grasp the trends from last night and feel if he gives Minny points like that last night, people will be all over a live home dog? Thats why people are saying the line is begging for IU money. After last night, people may be reluctant to play road chalk, but to take a road pick 'em with a top-10 team, maybe not so much.
3.) This whole site is all over unranked favs. If Minny was -1, rather than the +1/2 they are now, we would be preaching system play. Some are still on Minny, but I've always wondered what does that really tell us about the line and likely outcome if it would be a "certain" system play if they line was just a couple more points in one direction. Does that maybe tip you to IU's direction then.
4.) What does all that circular "logic" above in my first three bullet points prove? The answer is nothing. You best bet is to watch games and break them down accordingly based on your own feelings and insights. never get too caught up in thinking a line is a gift from Vegas or that Vegas is begging people a certain way. They will be making their money somehow, and that is not necessarily the case for us. If we knew how to crack Vegas, we would be sharing these thoughts together......on a beach.....rum drinks in hands.....with cute bahama mamas in bikinis surrounding us....as opposed to anonymously while the boss is not watching while we post on this site.:mj07:
5.) And, I should say its pretty damn cool to see a thread devoted to my alma mater's game.....been a longtime since we were a top-10 team.....and, its good to be home!!!!!
Dare I post an in-game tonight? I might do so.....i certainly will be watching, and if I am home maybe we'll do a thursday night hoops in-game or something.
If Minny loses this game I will start the Fix was in line!:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: while I am standing in the welfare line.
However, If Minny wins this game I will be on the beach with my rum drinks saying that was the biggest trap I ever saw!:mj07: :mj07:
However, If Minny wins this game I will be on the beach with my rum drinks saying that was the biggest trap I ever saw!:mj07: :mj07:
