Indiana/Seattle

[Valuist]

Both teams played on the road last night. Indy won; Seattle lost. But a look at the box score shows Indy caught all the breaks; Seattle didn't.

Last night:
Indiana +15 in FTA and committed 7 less fouls
Seattle -13 in FTA and committed 12 more fouls

Indy will let down tonight. Taking SEATTLE -2.5

 

[superbook]

Valuist --

Maybe I'm stupid but I don't get your logic here.

Obviously if IND committed fewer fouls they shot more FTs than the other team and just the opposite for SEA.

Doesn't the losing team usually commit more fouls? I'm not sure how this connects with catching more breaks.

I don't disagree with your conclusion that IND will letdown tonight, I'm just trying to understand your logic.

Can you help me understand this?

- Jon

 

[Valuist]

The reasoning is the big foul differential is probably what determined the outcome. Indy's win should be downgraded and Seattle's loss can possibly be excused. Yeah, the team that's losing will commit a few fouls in the last minute to have a chance to win IF the game is within reach. But normally you don't see double digit foul differentials. I believe things like that even out in the long run. One day you get the calls, the next day you don't.

 

[acehistr8]

Maybe instead you should consider the fact that Portland is just a team that fouls a lot. I just dont think its one day you get the calls and one day you dont. Portland is a fouling team, its not really that Indy got the calls:

Portland:
May 29 New York 19 pf
May 30 at Utah 28 pf
Jun 2 Seattle 20 pf
Jun 3 at Los Angeles 18 pf
Jun 6 Sacramento 21 pf
Jun 11 at Seattle 24 pf
Jun 13 at Minnesota 18 pf
Jun 15 Detroit 21 pf
Jun 18 Minnesota 19 pf
Jun 20 Indiana 28 pf

Avg: 21.6 pf/g


I still think Indiana is the better team tonight. So I can see where you say Indy won their last game because they took more foul shots - sure, but its just not a factor I consider relevant when capping tonights game.

My play is Indiana +3

 

[superbook]

Valuist -- thanks for your explanation. You know I think you're one of the top cappers here so I knew there was something behind your thinking.

Acehist8 makes a good point too.

Another reason SEA lost is that they shot poorly (nothing new they rank last in WNBA in FG%) and SAC only turned the ball over 7 times during the entire game.

IND won because they shot lights out in the 2H, averaging 52% for the game despite missing first 9 of 10 from the field. Versus their usual 43% shooting.

I do agree that IND's victory looked better than it was -- their win masked the fact that they commited 19 TOs.

Third game in four nights for both clubs tonight makes me take the Under not the side. Especially with IND scoring 59 in the 2H of last night's late game.

gl

 

[acehistr8]

I didnt mean to downplay your idea, it just isnt something that I personally would normally look at in this situation.

As always, good luck to everyone.

 

[Valuist]

Ace- no offense taken. But if you look at almost any sport, there's a number of times the "better" team (or horse) does not win. In horse racing, it comes down to the trip. A horse who wins with a perfect trip should be downgraded next out and will probably be overbet. In football, a team who wins 24-0 and was plus 4 in turnovers because they pounced on 3 fumbles and intercepted a deflected pass should also be downgraded. They can't count on having the ball bounce their way every time. In basketball, I look at shooting and fouls. A normally decent shooting team shoots 30% from the field and its probably an aberration; as is a huge foul differntial, in most cases. Maybe Portland does commit a lot of fouls (what was the differential in those games?) but that only explains 1/2 of the equation. How about Seattle being on the wrong end of the officiating? If it was only Indiana who benefitted, I may not consider it as much. But the fact Seattle was hurt should be considered also.

 

[superbook]

When the Valuist speaks, I listen. I don't know what your lifetime winning % is but it must be very high. That's the great thing about these forums, we learn new and different perspectives.

FWIW, here's my post on this game from across the street. Credit to the Valuist of course.

BEST BET: IND/SEA Under 144

I liked this line as soon as it came out last nite.

These two teams should come out like Tyson in the 6th as this is the third game in four days for both teams. Both teams played on the road last night and then flew to SEA early this morning.

SEA continued their miserable shooting last night, ruining my chances at winning my Best Bet, and there is no reason to think they'll shoot any better tonite. SAC is ranked last in the league in D, yet SEA could only manage to shoot 38.7% from the field which is only slightly higher than their 37.6% average for the season (last in the league).

Conversely, IND shot lights out in the second half at POR. I don't have the exact number, but they hit 52% for the game yet they missed 9 of their first 10 shots in the first half. IND outscored POR 59-42 in the 2H in part due to the gift of shooting 37 FTs in the game . The win also masked the fact that IND committed 19 TOs. IND's 52% from the field is significantly higher than the average performance of 41.7%. In the Fever's previous game vs Utah on Tuesday nite, they were closer to that average when they shot 39.4%.

IMO, IND looked better than they really are last night and SEA looked worse than they really are.

I agree with a poster from another forum who thinks IND might be due for a let-down tonite, and I also think that fatigue catches up with both teams. SEA can't seem to shoot straight and while I wasn't a statistics major I think that IND's shooting will revert to their norm.

First Half Under is also worth a look.

 

[Valuist]

Superbook--

You've been doing some good work on this forum. I admit I don't know the teams all that well in the WNBA but I look for scheduling plays, possible letdowns and revenge. I don't think I'm being chauvinistic when I think women athletes are less likely to handle scheduling irregularities, sandwich situations, revenge etc. as well as their male counterparts. So far revenge has been very good in the WNBA.

 

[acehistr8]

Valuist, I cant argue with you all of your logic is sound.

Just happens to be one of those plays where I could listen to positive reasons to go both ways. That said, right or wrong, I try to never change boats midstream.

Hell, maybe we can get a middle and everyone will be happy.

 

[Boxwood]

Other Forum

Other Forum

Super thanks for all the help everynight. The ladies are also new for me so of course any help I get is a bonus. The more info the better. You continue refering to another place or other Forum? Any help to find this place? Thanks again

 

[superbook]

Boxwood --

email me at jonruns@aol.com. thanks.

 

[superbook]

Valuist --

Thanks for the props.

WNBA is a lot like the only other game I cap well: Ivy League mens hoops.

I've got a play that you'll like.

A couple of nights ago LA's Lisa Leslie sat out of a game vs SEA with "flu-like symptoms".

A day later she had fully recovered and went through a full practice.

30 days from that incidence the Sparks play the Liberty in NY.

It's possible Leslie might suffer "flu-like symptoms" for this game?

I call this a Red Tide Play.

gl

 

[superbook]

Valuist --

Great call, you saved me a lot of dough.

Using your logic, SAC may be a bit overrated after their victory over SEA on Thursday nite.

Utah +1 is my Best Bet for today. 2PM game.

- Jon