Indianapolis
- Thread starter ShinerGrinder
- Start date
This stuck out to me while reading through the chassis selections.
#14-Tony Stewart: Chassis No. 14-827 has only been tested once, but it shined brightly when Kevin Harvick drove it to the fastest speed of anyone participating in the Dec. 9, 2013 test session at Charlotte. Since that test, crew chief Chad Johnston has put countless hours into Chassis No. 14-827 - on the shop floor and in the wind tunnel. The car will make its racing debut this weekend in the Brickyard 400, with shiny black-and-white paint of its Mobil 1/Bass Pro Shops livery covering the primer gray it wore seventh months ago. Stewart has one pole, two wins, three top-threes, seven top-fives, 11 top-10s and has led a total of 227 laps in 15 career Sprint Cup starts at Indianapolis. He only has two finishes outside the top-12 - a 17th-place result in 2001 and a 23rd-place finish in 2008. His average Sprint Cup start at Indianapolis is 15.9, his average Sprint Cup finish at Indianapolis is a series-best 7.9 and his lap completion rate is 100 percent. Stewart has raced Sprint Cup cars (15x), Indy cars (5x) and IROC cars (4x) to earn a total of 24 Indianapolis starts.
I believe he opened at +1700 and is now down to +900.
#14-Tony Stewart: Chassis No. 14-827 has only been tested once, but it shined brightly when Kevin Harvick drove it to the fastest speed of anyone participating in the Dec. 9, 2013 test session at Charlotte. Since that test, crew chief Chad Johnston has put countless hours into Chassis No. 14-827 - on the shop floor and in the wind tunnel. The car will make its racing debut this weekend in the Brickyard 400, with shiny black-and-white paint of its Mobil 1/Bass Pro Shops livery covering the primer gray it wore seventh months ago. Stewart has one pole, two wins, three top-threes, seven top-fives, 11 top-10s and has led a total of 227 laps in 15 career Sprint Cup starts at Indianapolis. He only has two finishes outside the top-12 - a 17th-place result in 2001 and a 23rd-place finish in 2008. His average Sprint Cup start at Indianapolis is 15.9, his average Sprint Cup finish at Indianapolis is a series-best 7.9 and his lap completion rate is 100 percent. Stewart has raced Sprint Cup cars (15x), Indy cars (5x) and IROC cars (4x) to earn a total of 24 Indianapolis starts.
I believe he opened at +1700 and is now down to +900.
Good Luck for Sure Shiner...
The Brickyard is the home of champions.
Or is it?
A quick point-counterpoint on the subject?
Point
Heading into the 20th anniversary of NASCAR racing at Indianapolis Motor Speedway (Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN), legendary names have conquered more often than not.
For instance,
-- 15 of the 20 races have been won by past, future or reigning series champions
-- Eight winners have gone on to win that year's NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship.
-- Three NASCAR Hall of Famers have won: Dale Earnhardt, Dale Jarrett (twice) and Bill Elliott. Three others, at least, will undoubtedly one day be enshrined: Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewar).
Counterpoint
Lately, those facts above have been turned on their head.
The recent winners include Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard and Ryan Newman, all of whom are winless in 2014. Even Stewart, a two-time Brickyard winner, still seeks his first victory of the season.
A part-time driver like Juan Pablo Montoya could win -- and probably should have in 2009, if not for a pit road speeding penalty. Montoya will make his second NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start of the season on Sunday, driving the No. 12 Team Penske Ford.
Either way, know this: This race should be interesting.
No driver falls into both the "legit contender" and "potential surprise" categories like Stewart. The three-time series champion remains winless and in real danger of missing the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
But Stewart boasts a brilliant history at his home track, so there's hope. The two-time Brickyard winner has finished in the top 10 in five consecutive Indianapolis races and nine of the last 10.
"You always want to win it," Stewart said. "Every driver has a home race. Some of the tracks we go to twice, and Indy is one we get to go to once, and this is our trip to it.
"If you can only win one race a year, I'm still going to pick the Daytona 500. But if you can't win Daytona as that one race a year, I want to win the Brickyard. It's always big when you come home. It's always big when you have friends and family that don't get the opportunity to go see you race anywhere else but can be there in person to watch and experience it. So you always want to run well."
Chase Elliott hopes to join Dad on Brickyard wins list
Chase Elliott, the runaway leader in the Sunoco Rookie of the Year battle, has three wins and the NASCAR Nationwide Series points lead. He's zeroing in on the season wins record of five held by Greg Biffle (2001), Kyle Busch (2004) and Carl Edwards (2005). No rookie has won the Nationwide Series championship.
But more immediately, there's Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where Chase and his father Bill can become the first father-son winners in NASCAR?s 21-year history at the track.
The Dawsonville, Ga., native will be making his series debut at Indianapolis this weekend, the track at which his father and NASCAR Hall of Fame inductee Bill Elliott won the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race in 2002.
"It's one of the places I look back on, I do have memories of The Brickyard win he (Bill Elliott) had, I think it was 2002," Chase Elliott said. "That?s a special racetrack for me. I always love going back there ever since then knowing he has been to Victory Lane. We are going to give it our best shot.?
JR Motorsports has won seven of the 18 races this season -- Elliott (Texas, Darlington and Chicago), Kevin Harvick (Richmond, Kentucky), Regan Smith (Daytona-1) and Kasey Kahne (Daytona-2). The team has led the driver points after 17 of 18 races this year (Elliott Sadler was the lone outlier, leading the points after Kentucky).
The Brickyard is the home of champions.
Or is it?
A quick point-counterpoint on the subject?
Point
Heading into the 20th anniversary of NASCAR racing at Indianapolis Motor Speedway (Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN), legendary names have conquered more often than not.
For instance,
-- 15 of the 20 races have been won by past, future or reigning series champions
-- Eight winners have gone on to win that year's NASCAR Sprint Cup Series championship.
-- Three NASCAR Hall of Famers have won: Dale Earnhardt, Dale Jarrett (twice) and Bill Elliott. Three others, at least, will undoubtedly one day be enshrined: Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewar).
Counterpoint
Lately, those facts above have been turned on their head.
The recent winners include Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard and Ryan Newman, all of whom are winless in 2014. Even Stewart, a two-time Brickyard winner, still seeks his first victory of the season.
A part-time driver like Juan Pablo Montoya could win -- and probably should have in 2009, if not for a pit road speeding penalty. Montoya will make his second NASCAR Sprint Cup Series start of the season on Sunday, driving the No. 12 Team Penske Ford.
Either way, know this: This race should be interesting.
No driver falls into both the "legit contender" and "potential surprise" categories like Stewart. The three-time series champion remains winless and in real danger of missing the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
But Stewart boasts a brilliant history at his home track, so there's hope. The two-time Brickyard winner has finished in the top 10 in five consecutive Indianapolis races and nine of the last 10.
"You always want to win it," Stewart said. "Every driver has a home race. Some of the tracks we go to twice, and Indy is one we get to go to once, and this is our trip to it.
"If you can only win one race a year, I'm still going to pick the Daytona 500. But if you can't win Daytona as that one race a year, I want to win the Brickyard. It's always big when you come home. It's always big when you have friends and family that don't get the opportunity to go see you race anywhere else but can be there in person to watch and experience it. So you always want to run well."
Chase Elliott hopes to join Dad on Brickyard wins list
Chase Elliott, the runaway leader in the Sunoco Rookie of the Year battle, has three wins and the NASCAR Nationwide Series points lead. He's zeroing in on the season wins record of five held by Greg Biffle (2001), Kyle Busch (2004) and Carl Edwards (2005). No rookie has won the Nationwide Series championship.
But more immediately, there's Indianapolis Motor Speedway, where Chase and his father Bill can become the first father-son winners in NASCAR?s 21-year history at the track.
The Dawsonville, Ga., native will be making his series debut at Indianapolis this weekend, the track at which his father and NASCAR Hall of Fame inductee Bill Elliott won the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race in 2002.
"It's one of the places I look back on, I do have memories of The Brickyard win he (Bill Elliott) had, I think it was 2002," Chase Elliott said. "That?s a special racetrack for me. I always love going back there ever since then knowing he has been to Victory Lane. We are going to give it our best shot.?
JR Motorsports has won seven of the 18 races this season -- Elliott (Texas, Darlington and Chicago), Kevin Harvick (Richmond, Kentucky), Regan Smith (Daytona-1) and Kasey Kahne (Daytona-2). The team has led the driver points after 17 of 18 races this year (Elliott Sadler was the lone outlier, leading the points after Kentucky).
Once more rain is in the forecast for Sunday. We might not race, which would push the race back to Monday, where we are expected to have cooler temperatures. This track changes a lot based on conditions. Two, qualifying is pretty important here, simply because it is so hard to pass. We?re probably going to see a ?follow the leader? type of race, and if a driver starts deep in the field, chances are they?re going to need some strategy all day to get up front, unless they have a great car. One pit road mistake could ruin a team?s day.
That said it's easy to see that I'm not going very deep with this one.
Win Bets:
0.5* Ryan Newman @ 19.5/1
He is the definition of consistent right now and always seems to finish better than he should. A potential reason for the latter happening is because ?Rocketman? doesn?t really show his hand in practice. Newman was 12th on the speed chart in Practice #1 on Friday and ended up 19th-fastest in Happy Hour. Honestly they had problems keeping speed on long runs, but I'm hoping they can fix that by the green flag. I have him ranked 8th for this one, and so I'll take the long odds on that.
0.5* Kurt Busch @ 20/1
Kurt finished 3rd at Pocono (The track that best resembles this one) last month; and he ran in the Indianapolis 500 this season, finishing 6th. Hopefully he learned a little something with that last one. is best finish (thus far) came way back in 2001, his first attempt at this track, where he ended up 5th. Kurt then went on to post finishes of 12th or better in five of his first seven starts here. In his six attempts since, however, he?s only been able to crack the top 12 once (10th in 2010) but he did end up 14th here with Furniture Row last season. The #41 Chevrolet was 6th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and then Kurt was one of the few drivers who actually used Happy Hour to work on race trim.
0.5* Juan Pablo Montoya @ 23/1
I know what I'm getting into with this guy, but he's in a Penske Ford, which might be the strongest organization in the garage right now. He definitely knows how to get around Indianapolis Motor Speedway thanks to his IndyCar experience, but mental mistakes have plagued him in the past here while in a Sprint Cup car. I personally think Montoya should have at least one Cup win here if not for stupid decisions. He ran 9th here last season while still with Earnhardt-Ganassi. Montoya was 6th in Happy Hour and will roll off the grid in 8th once the green flag waves. Hopefully he can bring it home.
Matchups:
2* Clint Bowyer +105 over Denny Hamlin
The #15 Toyota was 2nd-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday, which is encouraging. Also, it ranked 3rd on the five-lap average chart during that session, which is even more encouraging. Bowyer also used Happy Hour to work on race trim a little bit. He likes flat tracks and the Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas have shown decent speed all weekend. Perhaps the best thing to say about Bowyer this weekend is that this team has finished 11th or better in six of the last seven Sprint Cup races. I think Clint is a solid top 15 guy today.
Indy hasn?t been a great track for Denny Hamlin. He has a 16.9 average result and has finished 15th or worse 62.5% percent of the time. In only three of his eight races has he finished in the top ten. His best finish is 3rd and that came in the 2008 tire fiasco so you can put an asterisk mark next to that.
1* Jeff Gordon +110 over Jimmie Johnson
I have Jeff ranked 2nd and Jimmie 4th so that's the jest of this bet. Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Jeff Gordon?s statistics are ridiculous here. He?s a four-time winner of The Brickyard and has finished inside the top 10 in 80% of his 20 career starts. Additionally, he?s wound up inside the top 5 in 55% of them.
What?s interesting with Johnson at Indianapolis is that he?s pretty much boom or bust; over 12 career starts at this track, Jimmie has amassed five finishes of 1st or 2nd along with five finishes of 19th or worse. However He?s also a four-time winner at The Brickyard, and with this team?s back-to-back 42nd-place finishes at Daytona and Loudon. So momentum is in Gordon's corner there.
I'm hoping the put a decent price on a Logano matchup so I can fade him. He doesn't like his car, and one thing I've noticed with him is if he isn't fast off the truck than he usually doesn't contend.
That said it's easy to see that I'm not going very deep with this one.
Win Bets:
0.5* Ryan Newman @ 19.5/1
He is the definition of consistent right now and always seems to finish better than he should. A potential reason for the latter happening is because ?Rocketman? doesn?t really show his hand in practice. Newman was 12th on the speed chart in Practice #1 on Friday and ended up 19th-fastest in Happy Hour. Honestly they had problems keeping speed on long runs, but I'm hoping they can fix that by the green flag. I have him ranked 8th for this one, and so I'll take the long odds on that.
0.5* Kurt Busch @ 20/1
Kurt finished 3rd at Pocono (The track that best resembles this one) last month; and he ran in the Indianapolis 500 this season, finishing 6th. Hopefully he learned a little something with that last one. is best finish (thus far) came way back in 2001, his first attempt at this track, where he ended up 5th. Kurt then went on to post finishes of 12th or better in five of his first seven starts here. In his six attempts since, however, he?s only been able to crack the top 12 once (10th in 2010) but he did end up 14th here with Furniture Row last season. The #41 Chevrolet was 6th-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday and then Kurt was one of the few drivers who actually used Happy Hour to work on race trim.
0.5* Juan Pablo Montoya @ 23/1
I know what I'm getting into with this guy, but he's in a Penske Ford, which might be the strongest organization in the garage right now. He definitely knows how to get around Indianapolis Motor Speedway thanks to his IndyCar experience, but mental mistakes have plagued him in the past here while in a Sprint Cup car. I personally think Montoya should have at least one Cup win here if not for stupid decisions. He ran 9th here last season while still with Earnhardt-Ganassi. Montoya was 6th in Happy Hour and will roll off the grid in 8th once the green flag waves. Hopefully he can bring it home.
Matchups:
2* Clint Bowyer +105 over Denny Hamlin
The #15 Toyota was 2nd-fastest in Practice #1 on Friday, which is encouraging. Also, it ranked 3rd on the five-lap average chart during that session, which is even more encouraging. Bowyer also used Happy Hour to work on race trim a little bit. He likes flat tracks and the Michael Waltrip Racing Toyotas have shown decent speed all weekend. Perhaps the best thing to say about Bowyer this weekend is that this team has finished 11th or better in six of the last seven Sprint Cup races. I think Clint is a solid top 15 guy today.
Indy hasn?t been a great track for Denny Hamlin. He has a 16.9 average result and has finished 15th or worse 62.5% percent of the time. In only three of his eight races has he finished in the top ten. His best finish is 3rd and that came in the 2008 tire fiasco so you can put an asterisk mark next to that.
1* Jeff Gordon +110 over Jimmie Johnson
I have Jeff ranked 2nd and Jimmie 4th so that's the jest of this bet. Indianapolis Motor Speedway and Jeff Gordon?s statistics are ridiculous here. He?s a four-time winner of The Brickyard and has finished inside the top 10 in 80% of his 20 career starts. Additionally, he?s wound up inside the top 5 in 55% of them.
What?s interesting with Johnson at Indianapolis is that he?s pretty much boom or bust; over 12 career starts at this track, Jimmie has amassed five finishes of 1st or 2nd along with five finishes of 19th or worse. However He?s also a four-time winner at The Brickyard, and with this team?s back-to-back 42nd-place finishes at Daytona and Loudon. So momentum is in Gordon's corner there.
I'm hoping the put a decent price on a Logano matchup so I can fade him. He doesn't like his car, and one thing I've noticed with him is if he isn't fast off the truck than he usually doesn't contend.
2* Kyle Busch +115 over Joey Logano
I have Kyle 7th and Joey 10th. Rowdy probably isn?t many people?s first driver they think of when we get to Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but he?s actually been very consistent here over the course of his career, and that?s saying a lot for this Joe Gibbs Racing driver. In nine career starts here at Indy, Kyle has recorded top 10 finishes in seven of them, including in each of the last four. Rowdy was 7th-fastest on the speed chart in Practice #1 on Friday (with the 2nd-best five-lap average) and used Happy Hour to work exclusively on qualifying trim.
Like I was saying in the last paragraph above. There are certain little things you pick up about certain drivers over the years that are very beneficial when it comes to handicapping races. For example, when Tony Stewart is near the top of the practice chart, chances are he?s going to have a really good car for the race. With Joey Logano, it all comes down to how the car is off the truck. I picked up on it last year and rarely is it wrong; if Logano is fast off the truck, he?ll be good on Sunday. If he struggles, he?s going to be an iffy pick. Well, it?s been the latter for the #22 Ford this weekend. Logano was 8th-fastest in Practice #1 but he didn?t like his car, which made his pit crew change quite a few things. Once Happy Hour rolled around, Joey was 17th out of the 46 cars. Yeah, not very impressive.
Good Luck Guys!
Have been going back and forth between Jimmie and Gordon all morning. Going to roll with the 24 and hope for the best.
1.5X - Gordon +670
1.25X - Stewart +875
1.5X - Gordon +670
1.25X - Stewart +875
Matchups went 2-1 winning 1.4-units. No luck on the longshots today.
