information,myths,articles

selkirk

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first posted this on April 16, 2001. anyways good to post now that everything is saved just in case I lose the copy.



Got this article in an email this morning, many things in the article make a great deal of sense, and several great points are made. However Suze Orman (I believe on CNBC) talks about believeing in a stock and averaging down, I will post later why this can be very dangerous.
thanks
selkirk


Suze Orman's
The 9 Steps to
Financial Freedom

It never ceased to amaze me when I was a stockbroker that when I would buy the exact same stocks for my clients, some would always make money and some would never make money.

When brokers find stocks they like, they try to do what is called "building a position" in the stock -- buying lots of it for their clients. For instance, if I liked Widget stock, I'd call every single client I had to tell them all about Widget. Then I'd say: "How many shares would you like, five hundred or one thousand?" I was taught in stockbroker training school never to ask a "yes" or "no" question when trying to make a sale. By asking in an open-ended way whether you want five hundred or one thousand shares, you leave the client only with a choice of how many they want, not whether they want them.

I was a good salesperson, so most of my clients would buy Widget at, let's say, 85 a share. Now let's suppose all of a sudden Widget cuts its dividend, and before you know it, the stock is down to 40 -- and my phone begins ringing off the hook.

Some people would invariably say, "Sell, sell, I don't want to lose more than half my money!" In those cases, I had no choice but to sell their stock. Some of my other clients, in for a longer haul, even though they might not have been happy that the stock was down to 40, still knew that this was a good company and that in time it could come back. Often they would buy more shares at the lower price. Before you knew it, Widgets was at 120 a share.

All of my clients had bought the same stock. Some had made money, and some had lost it.

It bothered me when my clients lost money, and I began to think more about it. Finally I realized that it wasn't a matter of luck, but a matter of, well, spirit, for lack of a better word. It was the attitude, the instinct, with which the client went into an investment that helped to determine whether he or she would make money or lose money. Of course, there are good investments and bad investments. But however solid the investment, the investor has to be solidly behind his or her investment, as well.

When I started as a stockbroker, the financial world was quite different from the way it is today -- and it's still changing fast. You might think that this means it's all the more important to have a financial adviser look after your money for you, but the opposite is true. The changes in the financial world are actually making it much, much easier, and much, much safer, for individual investors to invest and look after their own money.

When I first started out at Merrill Lynch, money-market accounts were just beginning, mutual funds numbered in the low hundreds and hadn't yet been embraced by a wide range of investors, much less changed the way millions of us now invest for our futures. Discounted ways to invest were just starting, which meant that the most common way into the stock market was through a full-service broker like mine.

Suze Orman: Money Mistakes You Can't Afford
Full-service brokers charge high commissions and offer investment advice. They certainly are reputable, and you may eventually feel more comfortable investing with their guidance. But today, discount firms are thriving. Why? Because smart consumers always flock to where they'll get the best deal for their money. On their way, they stop to study what they're buying and where they're buying it.

I'm not in any way suggesting that if you take your nest egg and go out and find a speculative stock to invest it all in, you'll get rich. You won't. You'll be a sitting duck if you do that. What is more, I doubt your inner voice would guide you in that direction, anyway.

Nor am I suggesting that you shouldn't listen to others or learn about what you're planning to invest in. You need information to make good decisions. But your inner voice will help you weigh that information properly. What I am suggesting is that you test the waters before you jump in with everything you have and that you practice listening to that inner voice. As soon as you see how easy it is to stay afloat, and get used to the investing temperature, so to speak, you very well might want to go in deeper.

It doesn't matter if you have a large lump sum you want to invest or if you're just starting from scratch and want to put in a little here, a little there, as you can. Rule No. 1 is that to invest in the stock market (through mutual funds, index funds and the like, not just by buying and selling this stock or that one) you must invest only money that you will not need to touch for at least 10 years. Why? Because there has never in the history of the stock market been a 10-year period of time when stocks have not outperformed every single other investment you could have made.

Not that history always repeats itself, but this is a spectacular indicator -- a really great bet.

If you don't give your money 10 years, however, you will be taking a significant risk. If you don't have the time to leave this money sitting there, it is possible that when you do need to take it out, that need will arise at the worst possible time. Let's say you invested in 1999 and were planning to withdraw the money to buy a house within the next four years. You decided, "Okay, I'll just invest in the market, make all I can, and then have more money when the time comes to make the down payment."

One year later you find the house you want and make the offer, which is accepted on the very day the market goes down considerably. You have to sell on an awful market day and you will most likely take out far less than you initially put in. If you could have just waited -- but you could not, for you needed the money to buy your home. So time is everything.

Remember dollar cost averaging? That's the technique of walking money into an investment in small steps over a long time. This is the technique that works so well for long-term growth, in which you are investing wisely by limiting your risk. If you are investing that $50 or more a month, or if you have a huge stash of cash in a savings account that you now feel right about testing the waters with, this is your method of investing, because with dollar cost averaging, you raise your chances enormously of ending up a winner.

I am not talking here about you turning into one of those tycoons in B-movies who is always shouting, "Buy, buy, buy" or "Sell, sell, sell" into the half-dozen phones on his desk. Instead I'm talking about you venturing into the market in a safe way, spreading your money among dozens or hundreds of stocks, via mutual funds that gifted professionals spend their lifetimes watching and guarding, and having time and the market touch your money with magic.

These days, the richest and savviest investors may like to shout, "Buy, buy, buy" or "Sell, sell, sell" into a phone from time to time for the thrill (and potential payoff) of playing the market on a hunch or a tip. But these same investors have most of their money exactly where I am going to tell you to put yours: in a safe place, where over time it will grow and grow.

If you are reading this and still feeling your inner voice say, "No, I can't do this, it's not right for me," then consider hiring a professional adviser. But if you can, try testing the waters on your own first. Most people, I find, discover they truly love dealing with their money once they understand how to do it. Just remember: Give your money 10 years to grow.
 

selkirk

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should say she make many good points in the article of coarse going to concentrate on this Investor hope.


in the above article by Suze Orman she talks about buying more shares of Widget and having to dollar cost down when your down 50%
"I realized that it wasn't a matter of luck, but a matter of, well, spirit, for lack of a better word."

now the investor may believe in the stock and the word hope can be used buy the investor and broker are wrong. Most companies that cut their dividend are ussually in big trouble. now some turn around but for every example of one that turns around and beats the market average over 1-3 years I can find you six that either 1. go to zero. 2. underperform the general market. 3. decline another 25-50%

If I had this stock I would have set a stop at $70-$60, write options (covered), or buy a put (just in insure no more losses. Selling this stock would probably be not all that bad, in fact probably the best solution. In the article she says she knew the company was a good company and would turn around. however both the broker and investor are wrong, the company cut their div and has fallen 50%, it is time to forget about hope and faith.

ex. lets say you buy $8000 worth, at $40 the stock is even a better buy ( during this you never admit you may have made a mistake, of coarse you are not wrong).

2. so you buy $16,000 more, if it was a good buy at $80 it is a screaming buy now.

3. if it does fall to $30 or $20 the investor will probably buy more since it is still a good company. I have seen people lose a great deal of money by dollar cost averaging on the way down.

if they do not admit it was a mistake on a $8000 investment it only gets harder the more money you put in. You must eat a bigger loss and that you were wrong.

by the way this breaks rules
number 12. never average losses
3. Dont trust your own opinion and back your judgment until the action of the market confirms your opinion.
4. markets are never wrong opinion often are (had a debate over this one)
10. never buy a stock because it has had a big decline from its previous high (forgot this rule and blew a call on this forum)
13. The human side of every person is the greatest enemy of the average investor or specualator.
15. wishful thinking must be banished

case in point is Enron is was a Wall Street darling right near the end. the stock was rated a buy and strong buy by most of the brokerages covering the stock even when it fell to below $5.


here is the article again
thanks
selkirk

I was a good salesperson, so most of my clients would buy Widget at, let's say, 85 a share. Now let's suppose all of a sudden Widget cuts its dividend, and before you know it, the stock is down to 40 -- and my phone begins ringing off the hook.

Some people would invariably say, "Sell, sell, I don't want to lose more than half my money!" In those cases, I had no choice but to sell their stock. Some of my other clients, in for a longer haul, even though they might not have been happy that the stock was down to 40, still knew that this was a good company and that in time it could come back. Often they would buy more shares at the lower price. Before you knew it, Widgets was at 120 a share.

All of my clients had bought the same stock. Some had made money, and some had lost it.

It bothered me when my clients lost money, and I began to think more about it. Finally I realized that it wasn't a matter of luck, but a matter of, well, spirit, for lack of a better word. It was the attitude, the instinct, with which the client went into an investment that helped to determine whether he or she would make money or lose money. Of course, there are good investments and bad investments. But however solid the investment, the investor has to be solidly behind his or her investment, as well.
 

selkirk

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The WISE ONES part 1

The WISE ONES part 1

in Canada we have some so called "experts" we will find them on TV, writing columns and on the radio. They often talk about investments and interview business leaders, give seminars, write books, ect. here is some info on them.
source of info in brackets,

Brian Costello (globe and mail, national post) has been charged by the Ontario Securties Commission OSC. Costello is accussed of promoting partnerships that made money for a company that he had ownership in, he failed it disclose this association. he is also charged with recommending investments although he is not registered to give advice. Costello says he will fight the charges; he has had earlier problems with the OSC.

Jerry White

these are quotes sources in brackets, printer story has been printed in a journals.
mostly from late 90s, 1997.

"White claims to have earned a number of graduate degrees... His "docter" title, which appears in ads and on his book jackets, is a D. Litt earned in 1985 at the International Managment Center- a correspondence college without a campus.

The 1994 edition of Canada Who's Who says White received his MA at City College (UK). But a short bio written by his own firm J. White and Associates, says he attended City University in London, Eng. Both institutions have checked their records and have no evidence of White attending." (Investment Executive)

In June 1992, White was petitioned into bankruptcy by the CIBC, and eleven other creditors including Royal Bank, Citibank, Revenue Canada, claiming total debts of 1.4 million. (Rod McQueen National Post)

John Wiley claims are after Jerry White company for $45,000. Wiley claims White owes them for printing distributing 10,000 copies of Jerry doorstep.

Wiley also alleges that on July 7, 1994, Jerry sent them four post dated cheques. The first cheque for $10,000 dated July 31, came back NSF. Wiley called the bank to discover that Jerry's company had closed the account.


" To be honest with you, we know what he's like. Let's put it this way, I just pay him to do his job - to inspire people to come and see a finacial planner, from there it is up to me. (investment Executive)

Currently Jerry White is doing just fine, he was listed in the Toronto Financial Forum magazine as the "Chief Tax, Estate and Financial Advisor to the Canadian Snowbird Association and Farmers of North America." Also at another "show" CARP (Canadian Association for the 50 plus )he was a feaurted speaker.


Garth Turner and Diane Francis

this is taken from the CBC show Disclosure, which did a feature on "investment" shows. Great show, hopefully it will be a good as Undercurrents which examined just the media.

Canada's Best Businesses / hosted by Diane Francis

Diane Francis has been a big name business journalist for over 20 years. She's written several books. She has also hosted Canada's Best Businesses; a series broadcast nationally - first on Global, then on CTV.

One episode last February featured a four-minute "inside look" at DataMirror, an Ontario software company. The coverage didn't come cheap.

"I think it was approximately somewhere between $18,000 and $20,000," says Data Mirror's director of marketing, Tracy Staniland. "That included the broadcast plus all of the production."

Staniland says DataMirror wrote more than just the cheque for Canada's Best Businesses:

"We wrote the script. We rehearsed it with the key spokespeople prior to doing the production. [We] decided who in the organization would be the key spokespeople and then worked with their production."

Was the audience aware that the segment was really like an infomercial, written and paid for by the company? We called Diane Francis' office and were told she was too busy for the next four months to talk to us. Her assistant said Ms. Francis has parted ways with the production company that produces Canada's Best Businesses and she couldn't confirm whether Ms. Francis will be hosting the show when it returns to CTV next month.


Millennium Media Television / Garth Turner, CEO

Garth Turner burst onto the scene in the 1980's as a crusading business editor at the Toronto Sun. Then he went into politics. Then back to business journalism.


And then there's Garth Turner. He burst onto the scene in the 1980's as a crusading business editor at the Toronto Sun. Then he went into politics, becoming Minister of National Revenue. Then back to business journalism.

Today he works from the heart of Toronto's financial district, heading a production company called Millennium Media Television. They produce programs like: Garth Turner's Investment Television; Real Estate Television; Mutual Funds Television; Dot.com Television; and Board of Trade Television.

Board of Trade Television began last fall on CFTO, the Toronto affiliate of CTV.

John Schram, CEO of a healthcare company called We Care Health Services Inc., says "a charming lady" approached him. She "wanted to know if I'd be interested in having our company profiled on her show."

She told Schram that she was associated with the Board of Trade show and "Garth Turner would be doing a lead in and voice over" for the profile.

"When I'm seeing someone interviewed on a TV program I would expect that it's done more with a journalistic motive in mind, and it's done without any payment."

John Schram


The woman told Schram she would come by his company and shoot "a short video of me and the company. I guess it was shortly after that, she mentioned a fee attached to this. And that's when my antenna went up."

Schram says the fee was in the $6,300 - $6,500 range, and he "didn't like the aspect that I was going to pay for it.

"Being the old fashioned person that I am," he says, "when I'm seeing someone interviewed on a TV program I would expect that it's done more with a journalistic motive in mind, and it's done without any payment."

We decided it was time for us to interview Garth Turner, but he wasn't too keen.

He agreed to an on-camera interview so long as we would promise that there there would be no comparison to shows like BTV and the Canada's Best Businesses.

In the end, Turner said he wouldn't talk to Disclosure on camera, but he would give us a studio tour and we could interview Nalini Sharma, Vice President, Content and Development for Turner's Millennium Media Television.

While Turner was showing us around the studio, we couldn't resist asking the big question:

Wendy Mesley: Is there any financial relationship between the people who are on the show and your company?

Garth Turner: That's, I think, the interview you're going to do with Nalini, so --

Wendy Mesley: I just wanted to ask you one question about how many financial links there can be to people on your show before it starts to get sticky.

Garth Turner: I'll only answer that by way of saying that, ah, because we're not the CBC and we don't get money given to us, that we have to run a business for which revenues are generated and the bulk of the revenues are generated by selling sponsorships and advertising and what we call billboards.

The "billboards" are those "brought to you by" messages. They alert the audience when they're viewing sponsored programming.

But we discovered one company had paid to appear on one of Garth Turner's programs, but there was no indication that it was sponsored programming.

"Because we're not the CBC and we don't get money given to us that we have to run a business for which revenues are generated."

Garth Turner

The company, Watson Wyatt, told us they paid for a profile piece that aired on Turner's Board of Trade Television.

We asked Garth Turner whether the audience knew that money had changed hands:

Turner: It's extremely transparent. It's Board of Trade Television. It's about the Toronto Board of Trade. We just simply go out and profile Board of Trade members -
Mesley: And take their money to offset the cost.

Turner: The cost of doing the show, exactly.

Mesley: But do you think the audience knows that?

[Nalini Sharma, Turner's Vice President, Content and Development, interrupts]

Sharma: I think the audience is smart enough to know that. It's called Board of Trade Television.

Investment Television is the flagship show of Turner's Millennium Media Television. The program is broadcast across the country on Global and Prime.

"It's really a way for us to generate revenue, support the jobs here."

Nalini Sharma

Garth Turner insists "people don't pay us money to be on Investment Television."

Well, remember Kevin Francis, the CEO who paid to be interviewed on the U.S. show, World Business Review? He got a free interview on Investment Television for 90 seconds - but then his company was contacted by Millennium Media Television, offering them a longer profile for $12,500. Francis' company declined.

"It's something we've been thinking about doing," says Turner, "but we haven't done it.

"And if we were to do it, as we've done with Board of Trade Television which you can watch and see, where we have had some paid profiles, the companies are not endorsed."

Mesley: Your sales people are saying to this company, 'If you give us $12,500, you can appear on our show and we'll do a video for you.'

Sharma: That's right. The profile that they would get on the show on Investment Television, for example, if they were to pay $12,500 - it's written by our staff, our editorial staff here.

We consult with the PR person or their spokespeople, but at no time do they ever send us questions or check the script? At no time do they have the right to pull programming. It's really a way for us to generate revenue, support the jobs here.
 

selkirk

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Jul 16, 1999
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WISE ONES (continued)

WISE ONES (continued)

the last post was to big to fit in one post. so here are my final thoughts.


I could go on with more so experts like Gordon Pape who is now shilling Reverse Mortgages but... maybe another day.

by the way if you think this just happens in the Canada and not say the US you should really, well....wake up....

thanks
selkirk
 
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