Initial Championship Game Thoughts.

[bleedingpurple]

Denver isn't that good IMO, they are lucky no Brown and Pitt's Running back can't hold onto the football. I think Brady and Co get it done but I could change my mind cause frankly it looks too easy. Peyton Manning is done

My gut says Arizona my brain says Carolina, have to really dig this out but I don't know if I can trust Palmer, he looked bad. If the corner is out for Carolina again I may have to side with Arizona.

Looking at the totals...


LOCAL BOOKS got smashed here this weekend and 1 claims he is calling it quits after Super Bowl saying the gamblers are just too good now and he blames the internet. He was a bit drunk and pissed that the teaser players all won this week. Everyone won on Saturday and said everyone teased Seattle with Denver. The Seattle comeback cost the locals thousands and were really pulling for Pitt to pull off the upset.

 

[Jord20]

[/QUOTE] LOCAL BOOKS got smashed here this weekend and 1 claims he is calling it quits after Super Bowl saying the gamblers are just too good now and he blames the internet. He was a bit drunk and pissed that the teaser players all won this week. Everyone won on Saturday and said everyone teased Seattle with Denver. The Seattle comeback cost the locals thousands and were really pulling for Pitt to pull off the upset.[/QUOTE]

This made me laugh out loud. The local Minnesota bettor that this guy is booking at $100 a game are too good now?! BAAAAHHAHAHAAAAA. All 8 teasers on sides hit this weekend - if you include totals, 15 out of 16 teased sides hit. I have an office full of people that play all teasers - they all probably went undefeated this weekend, and none of them is remotely close to a long term winner.

I think this year and last have been a lot more kind to the local bettor who does zero real analysis - this is nothing more than short term variance which will be adjusted by the books if necessary. Or, maybe there are too many people and too much money being played by people who actually have gotten a lot better, and have caused the lines to move towards the seemingly obvious plays and away from the "true" numbers. I believe the latter is def part of it, and part of the reason the obvious teams have won so many close ATS games lately - 5-10 years ago, those lines would have been more publicly inflated and would have flipped a bunch back the other way.

Either way, the local Minnesotan bettor still sucks and will 100% lose long term. Maybe, he should "square" adjust his lines like a Bovada on steroids to make up for his losses. Following lines from people who have a different clientele than you is probably not optimal.

 

[pel7]

Already bet Over on both games. Will be on Az big later in the week.

 

[bleedingpurple]

LOCAL BOOKS got smashed here this weekend and 1 claims he is calling it quits after Super Bowl saying the gamblers are just too good now and he blames the internet. He was a bit drunk and pissed that the teaser players all won this week. Everyone won on Saturday and said everyone teased Seattle with Denver. The Seattle comeback cost the locals thousands and were really pulling for Pitt to pull off the upset.[/QUOTE]

This made me laugh out loud. The local Minnesota bettor that this guy is booking at $100 a game are too good now?! BAAAAHHAHAHAAAAA. All 8 teasers on sides hit this weekend - if you include totals, 15 out of 16 teased sides hit. I have an office full of people that play all teasers - they all probably went undefeated this weekend, and none of them is remotely close to a long term winner.

I think this year and last have been a lot more kind to the local bettor who does zero real analysis - this is nothing more than short term variance which will be adjusted by the books if necessary. Or, maybe there are too many people and too much money being played by people who actually have gotten a lot better, and have caused the lines to move towards the seemingly obvious plays and away from the "true" numbers. I believe the latter is def part of it, and part of the reason the obvious teams have won so many close ATS games lately - 5-10 years ago, those lines would have been more publicly inflated and would have flipped a bunch back the other way.

Either way, the local Minnesotan bettor still sucks and will 100% lose long term. Maybe, he should "square" adjust his lines like a Bovada on steroids to make up for his losses. Following lines from people who have a different clientele than you is probably not optimal.[/QUOTE]

He claims they don't but they all claim that. I know he has guys that play 5 K a game but they keep it to 2 - 3 a weekend. I know a guy who lost 150 K to him one year, guy was a total wreck and lost his business cause he was gambling, doing designer drugs and popping pill, so I asked the Book where all that money went he won, cries to me that he spent it all, guy hasn't had a job in years and now he is crying, fucker needs to get off the coke himself. Fucking bookies always whine they lose

 

[Jord20]

He claims they don't but they all claim that. I know he has guys that play 5 K a game but they keep it to 2 - 3 a weekend. I know a guy who lost 150 K to him one year, guy was a total wreck and lost his business cause he was gambling, doing designer drugs and popping pill, so I asked the Book where all that money went he won, cries to me that he spent it all, guy hasn't had a job in years and now he is crying, fucker needs to get off the coke himself. Fucking bookies always whine they lose

LOL - that is some funny stuff

 

[WildBillPicks7]

A deteriorating health of Peyton Manning vs the aged fountain of youth exuding Tom deflate-a-gate Brady, banged up O in the Mile High. Brady's thrown more TD passes in Denver this year than Peyton did all yr. Denver with #1 overall AFC "D". NE very easily could have gone into OT vs KC if not for some poor judgement plays by KC inside he 30 yd line twice with no scores vs NE. Weather could play a part in Denver/NE game in Mile High Air and swirling stiff winds. It could come down to a friggin FG! Line is -3 NE of course. These 2 QBs will be first ballot HOFs and have played each other 17 past games, make it 18 now. Denver as the dog in those games? Brady beat Danny Kanell and Tim Tebow in AFC Championship games in the past. Denver's "D" wasn't in the top 10 either season.

Both coaches know that each other will resort to dinks and short wide out passes and an occasional duck downfield by Peyton. Running game will be key, Denver slight edge with healthier runners in Hillman and Anderson. Special teams big deal in that game.

Carolina at home has been dynamite but their 2nd half collapses have not been good and Carson Palmer in first shot at a Super Bowl? Same can be said for Cam and his bunch of unified team members. Line is -3 as well? That's a solid line. The total is a bit high and weather in this one could be a bit brisk and windy in Charlotte. Another special teams and "D" game outcome set up. If not for Luke pick 6 vs Seattle, that game on Sunday could have gone into OT. Carolina scored zero pts in the 2nd half? I think Bruce will pick that film apart and use it like a history test. Vets like Fitz, Floyd and Palmer all with some post season experience and both teams going for first ever Super Bowl win, both teams have been there and Carolina once played NE with Jake Delhomme as QB for Carolina. :mj07: Vs Tom fokken Brady too. Palmer has not been to a SB but AZ went there and lost vs Pissboygh and Big Ben and at QB was Kurt Warner? WOW, that seems like ages ago!!

I like Carolina's running game over AZ and I like Carolina's opportunistic "D" vs AZ. Palmer is very predictable and can't run a fucking lick. Cam on the other hand can fall forward for a first down or TD from a yard out!! Also the bigger WRs for Carolina could create matchup probs for AZ or even their Zone "D".

Kickers? I like Carolina's a bit more.

Head Coaches? Bill and Ron over Gary and Bruce as far as experience for the big one, Ron's when he was with Ditka and da Bears! Bruce was there with Pissboygh, Gary as a former player and coach with Denver. Bill is just plain and simple GREAT!!

I think both games will be entertaining and I think both home teams escape with a slim victory in low scoring affairs, unless the elements help spur mega turnovers and dying ducks from Peyton to Patsy DBs and backers. Cam can stretch the field a bit, Carson a bit more accurate but not quick twitch.

I have Denver/NE as a pick em and Carolina winning by 3-7 pts, both with 3 pt error margins.

I may tease with Unders in both games but gonna wait to see where these lines finish a bit before game time.

GLE!!

 

[bleedingpurple]

A deteriorating health of Peyton Manning vs the aged fountain of youth exuding Tom deflate-a-gate Brady, banged up O in the Mile High. Brady's thrown more TD passes in Denver this year than Peyton did all yr. Denver with #1 overall AFC "D". NE very easily could have gone into OT vs KC if not for some poor judgement plays by KC inside he 30 yd line twice with no scores vs NE. Weather could play a part in Denver/NE game in Mile High Air and swirling stiff winds. It could come down to a friggin FG! Line is -3 NE of course. These 2 QBs will be first ballot HOFs and have played each other 17 past games, make it 18 now. Denver as the dog in those games? Brady beat Danny Kanell and Tim Tebow in AFC Championship games in the past. Denver's "D" wasn't in the top 10 either season. Both coaches know that each other will resort to dinks and short wide out passes and an occasional duck downfield by Peyton. Running game will be key, Denver slight edge with healthier runners in Hillman and Anderson. Special teams big deal in that game. Carolina at home has been dynamite but their 2nd half collapses have not been good and Carson Palmer in first shot at a Super Bowl? Same can be said for Cam and his bunch of unified team members. Line is -3 as well? That's a solid line. The total is a bit high and weather in this one could be a bit brisk and windy in Charlotte. Another special teams and "D" game outcome set up. If not for Luke pick 6 vs Seattle, that game on Sunday could have gone into OT. Carolina scored zero pts in the 2nd half? I think Bruce will pick that film apart and use it like a history test. Vets like Fitz, Floyd and Palmer all with some post season experience and both teams going for first ever Super Bowl win, both teams have been there and Carolina once played NE with Jake Delhomme as QB for Carolina. :mj07: Vs Tom fokken Brady too. Palmer has not been to a SB but AZ went there and lost vs Pissboygh and Big Ben and at QB was Kurt Warner? WOW, that seems like ages ago!! I like Carolina's running game over AZ and I like Carolina's opportunistic "D" vs AZ. Palmer is very predictable and can't run a fucking lick. Cam on the other hand can fall forward for a first down or TD from a yard out!! Also the bigger WRs for Carolina could create matchup probs for AZ or even their Zone "D". Kickers? I like Carolina's a bit more. Head Coaches? Bill and Ron over Gary and Bruce as far as experience for the big one, Ron's when he was with Ditka and da Bears! Bruce was there with Pissboygh, Gary as a former player and coach with Denver. Bill is just plain and simple GREAT!! I think both games will be entertaining and I think both home teams escape with a slim victory in low scoring affairs, unless the elements help spur mega turnovers and dying ducks from Peyton to Patsy DBs and backers. Cam can stretch the field a bit, Carson a bit more accurate but not quick twitch. I have Denver/NE as a pick em and Carolina winning by 3-7 pts, both with 3 pt error margins. I may tease with Unders in both games but gonna wait to see where these lines finish a bit before game time. GLE!!

Thanks for taking the time, may just sit it out and take which ever NFC team comes out of it to win it all