Texas Tech Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
Texas Tech has one of the most productive passing attacks in the nation and will continue to air it out against a suspect Minnesota pass defense. The Red Raiders will consistently spread the field in an effort to create favorable matchups and help simplify quarterback Graham Harrell's reads. Of course, the scheme needs the right personnel to be successful and Texas Tech has it. Harrell has shown great accuracy and generally makes good decisions. He has thrown 10 interceptions, but it's important to remember he has thrown 562 passes this year. In fact, Harrell generally takes what the defense gives him and does a good job of spreading the ball around to wide receivers Joel Filani, Robert Johnson and Danny Amendola. None of this bodes well for a Gopher pass defense that has been one of the weakest in the nation. First off, Minnesota still won't have the depth at corner to match up with the Red Raider receiving corps, even if DC Trumaine Banks, who missed the final five regular season games with a broken arm, plays as expected. Secondly, Harrell plays behind an experienced offensive line that holds up well in pass protection and it's a rhythm offense that allows him to get rid of the ball quickly. The Gophers should have a hard time getting to him consequently. Thirdly, the playmakers in the Minnesota secondary should have a difficult time jumping routes and getting their hands on the ball, as Harrell should keep them off balance by getting all of his receivers involved.
Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
When: Dec. 29, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Tempe, Ariz.
Texas Tech may only sprinkle in the run to keep defenses off balance, but running back Shannon Woods should be productive when he gets the ball. First off, the Red Raider spread scheme should force Minnesota to play more defensive backs and its safeties deep, effectively opening up the running game. Secondly, the offensive line generally gets into good position and it should have some success opening up holes against a Gopher front seven that has been inconsistent at best. Thirdly, Woods reads his blocks fairly well and he has the speed to exploit the vertical seams the spread sets create for him. However, Texas Tech could have a difficult time picking up yards on the ground in short-yardage situations. After all, Woods lacks elite power and Minnesota has shown the ability to tighten up near the end zone. With that in mind, Johnson and Filani could play big roles in the red zone. They have excellent size and can make the tough catch in traffic. If Harrell sees one of them matched up against undersized DC Dominic Jones, he should try to take advantage.
Minnesota Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
The plain truth is Minnesota's defense simply isn't strong enough to slow down the explosive Texas Tech attack so the Gophers should have to win the battle of time of possession to win this game. With that in mind, establishing an effective running game that puts the offense in position to sustain long drives by keeping it out of a lot of third-and-long situations will be essential. But it won't be easy. Red Raider tackles Chris Hudler and Ken Scott are stout run defenders who can hold their ground against a Minnesota interior offensive line that lacks dominant drive blockers. MLB Brock Stratton doesn't have great size and can take too long to shed blocks, but he is quick and he reads his keys well. He can be an effective interior run stuffer when his defensive tackles protect him like they should in this game. Though the Gophers should have more success sealing the edge and running back Amir Pinnix has the burst to get outside quickly, it is unlikely Pinnix breaks a lot of long runs. Outside linebackers Fletcher Session and Kellen Tillman have good closing speed and generally tackle well. All that aside, it's important that Pinnix takes what the defense gives him and doesn't try to turn short runs into long gains because Minnesota doesn't need him to make a lot of big plays. It needs him to consistently pick up 3 yards per carry because that will help keep the chains and clock moving. In addition, offensive coordinator Mitch Browning should stay committed to the run even if it sputters early because the Red Raiders have appeared to wear down late in games.
A shoulder injury will force TE Matt Spaeth to sit out this game and he will be sorely missed. Spaeth, who won the John Mackey Award, which is given to the nation's best tight end each year, is a reliable short-to-intermediate receiver with good size and strong hands. Although backup Jack Simmons has played well, he doesn't have Spaeth's size or experience so wide receivers Logan Payne, Eric Decker and Ernie Wheelwright should have to step up in Spaeth's absence. In addition, Spaeth was fast and athletic enough to make the occasional big play downfield. Without him in the lineup, SS Joe Garcia should be more comfortable playing close to the line of scrimmage and he is Texas Tech's second leading tackler. Making matters worse for Cupito, Texas Tech should have some success getting to him. The Red Raider front four is relentless and defensive coordinator Lyle Setencich will mix in some blitzes. However, Cupito played his best football down the stretch and he manages the game well. He should show good poise and find the open man when the protection holds up.
Special Teams
Texas Tech's Alex Trlica doesn't have great range and uncharacteristically missed a 28-yard field goal attempt against Oklahoma late in the year. However, Trlica bounced back with three field goals in the regular season finale and he hasn't missed a point-after attempt all year. Backup Keith Toogood has done an excellent job kicking off, as 37 of his 61 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. Alex Reyes generally gets great distance, as well as hang-time, on his punts and is capable of placing the ball inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Though Shannon Woods and Eric Morris have good top-end speed, the kickoff return unit has been one of the least productive in the nation and Minnesota has done a good job of covering kickoffs. Danny Amendola is a dangerous open field runner who is consistent and flashes the ability to break long returns, but he has his work cut out for him because the Gophers have also covered punts well.
Minnesota certainly has concerns about its place kicking. Though Jason Giannini hasn't missed a field goal attempt inside 40 yards this year, he has missed three point-after-attempts and four of his last six field goal attempts. In addition, backup Joel Monroe missed his only field goal attempt of the year in the regular season finale. On a more positive note, 26 of Monroe's 62 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. P Justin Kucek has adequate range and he has placed 17 of his 53 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Texas Tech's kickoff cover unit is one of the best in the nation, but the Red Raiders haven't been nearly as effective covering punts. That said, both units should have to stay disciplined and tackle well because return man Dominic Jones is elusive and explosive. He returned a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown earlier this year and is a threat to break a long return every time he touches the ball.
Matchups
? Minnesota RB Amir Pinnix vs. Texas Tech MLB Brock Stratton
? Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell vs. Minnesota FS Dominque Barber
? Texas Tech WR Joel Filani vs. Minnesota DC Dominic Jones
Scouts' Edge
Only four teams give up more passing yards per game than Minnesota and only two teams throw for more yards per game than Texas Tech so it's easy to do the math here. The Red Raiders will spread the field and allow Harrell to get the ball to the abundance of weapons at receiver. Woods will take advantage of the passing game opening up the ground game and turn his limited carries into quality production. As a result, the Gophers should fall behind early. Minnesota will have a difficult time establishing the ground game against a strong Texas Tech run defense and it should become a pass-heavy offense once they fall behind early. While Cupitio is a seasoned leader who has a good grasp of the offense, he doesn't have ideal natural ability, so he needs a productive running game to be truly effective. Look for him to struggle when he's forced to shoulder the bulk of the offensive load and the result will be some stalled drives that open the door for Texas Tech to extend its lead late.
Prediction: Red Raiders 31, Golden Gophers 17
Texas Tech has one of the most productive passing attacks in the nation and will continue to air it out against a suspect Minnesota pass defense. The Red Raiders will consistently spread the field in an effort to create favorable matchups and help simplify quarterback Graham Harrell's reads. Of course, the scheme needs the right personnel to be successful and Texas Tech has it. Harrell has shown great accuracy and generally makes good decisions. He has thrown 10 interceptions, but it's important to remember he has thrown 562 passes this year. In fact, Harrell generally takes what the defense gives him and does a good job of spreading the ball around to wide receivers Joel Filani, Robert Johnson and Danny Amendola. None of this bodes well for a Gopher pass defense that has been one of the weakest in the nation. First off, Minnesota still won't have the depth at corner to match up with the Red Raider receiving corps, even if DC Trumaine Banks, who missed the final five regular season games with a broken arm, plays as expected. Secondly, Harrell plays behind an experienced offensive line that holds up well in pass protection and it's a rhythm offense that allows him to get rid of the ball quickly. The Gophers should have a hard time getting to him consequently. Thirdly, the playmakers in the Minnesota secondary should have a difficult time jumping routes and getting their hands on the ball, as Harrell should keep them off balance by getting all of his receivers involved.
Texas Tech vs. Minnesota
When: Dec. 29, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Where: Tempe, Ariz.
Texas Tech may only sprinkle in the run to keep defenses off balance, but running back Shannon Woods should be productive when he gets the ball. First off, the Red Raider spread scheme should force Minnesota to play more defensive backs and its safeties deep, effectively opening up the running game. Secondly, the offensive line generally gets into good position and it should have some success opening up holes against a Gopher front seven that has been inconsistent at best. Thirdly, Woods reads his blocks fairly well and he has the speed to exploit the vertical seams the spread sets create for him. However, Texas Tech could have a difficult time picking up yards on the ground in short-yardage situations. After all, Woods lacks elite power and Minnesota has shown the ability to tighten up near the end zone. With that in mind, Johnson and Filani could play big roles in the red zone. They have excellent size and can make the tough catch in traffic. If Harrell sees one of them matched up against undersized DC Dominic Jones, he should try to take advantage.
Minnesota Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
The plain truth is Minnesota's defense simply isn't strong enough to slow down the explosive Texas Tech attack so the Gophers should have to win the battle of time of possession to win this game. With that in mind, establishing an effective running game that puts the offense in position to sustain long drives by keeping it out of a lot of third-and-long situations will be essential. But it won't be easy. Red Raider tackles Chris Hudler and Ken Scott are stout run defenders who can hold their ground against a Minnesota interior offensive line that lacks dominant drive blockers. MLB Brock Stratton doesn't have great size and can take too long to shed blocks, but he is quick and he reads his keys well. He can be an effective interior run stuffer when his defensive tackles protect him like they should in this game. Though the Gophers should have more success sealing the edge and running back Amir Pinnix has the burst to get outside quickly, it is unlikely Pinnix breaks a lot of long runs. Outside linebackers Fletcher Session and Kellen Tillman have good closing speed and generally tackle well. All that aside, it's important that Pinnix takes what the defense gives him and doesn't try to turn short runs into long gains because Minnesota doesn't need him to make a lot of big plays. It needs him to consistently pick up 3 yards per carry because that will help keep the chains and clock moving. In addition, offensive coordinator Mitch Browning should stay committed to the run even if it sputters early because the Red Raiders have appeared to wear down late in games.
A shoulder injury will force TE Matt Spaeth to sit out this game and he will be sorely missed. Spaeth, who won the John Mackey Award, which is given to the nation's best tight end each year, is a reliable short-to-intermediate receiver with good size and strong hands. Although backup Jack Simmons has played well, he doesn't have Spaeth's size or experience so wide receivers Logan Payne, Eric Decker and Ernie Wheelwright should have to step up in Spaeth's absence. In addition, Spaeth was fast and athletic enough to make the occasional big play downfield. Without him in the lineup, SS Joe Garcia should be more comfortable playing close to the line of scrimmage and he is Texas Tech's second leading tackler. Making matters worse for Cupito, Texas Tech should have some success getting to him. The Red Raider front four is relentless and defensive coordinator Lyle Setencich will mix in some blitzes. However, Cupito played his best football down the stretch and he manages the game well. He should show good poise and find the open man when the protection holds up.
Special Teams
Texas Tech's Alex Trlica doesn't have great range and uncharacteristically missed a 28-yard field goal attempt against Oklahoma late in the year. However, Trlica bounced back with three field goals in the regular season finale and he hasn't missed a point-after attempt all year. Backup Keith Toogood has done an excellent job kicking off, as 37 of his 61 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. Alex Reyes generally gets great distance, as well as hang-time, on his punts and is capable of placing the ball inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Though Shannon Woods and Eric Morris have good top-end speed, the kickoff return unit has been one of the least productive in the nation and Minnesota has done a good job of covering kickoffs. Danny Amendola is a dangerous open field runner who is consistent and flashes the ability to break long returns, but he has his work cut out for him because the Gophers have also covered punts well.
Minnesota certainly has concerns about its place kicking. Though Jason Giannini hasn't missed a field goal attempt inside 40 yards this year, he has missed three point-after-attempts and four of his last six field goal attempts. In addition, backup Joel Monroe missed his only field goal attempt of the year in the regular season finale. On a more positive note, 26 of Monroe's 62 kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. P Justin Kucek has adequate range and he has placed 17 of his 53 punts inside the opponent's 20-yard line. Texas Tech's kickoff cover unit is one of the best in the nation, but the Red Raiders haven't been nearly as effective covering punts. That said, both units should have to stay disciplined and tackle well because return man Dominic Jones is elusive and explosive. He returned a kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown earlier this year and is a threat to break a long return every time he touches the ball.
Matchups
? Minnesota RB Amir Pinnix vs. Texas Tech MLB Brock Stratton
? Texas Tech QB Graham Harrell vs. Minnesota FS Dominque Barber
? Texas Tech WR Joel Filani vs. Minnesota DC Dominic Jones
Scouts' Edge
Only four teams give up more passing yards per game than Minnesota and only two teams throw for more yards per game than Texas Tech so it's easy to do the math here. The Red Raiders will spread the field and allow Harrell to get the ball to the abundance of weapons at receiver. Woods will take advantage of the passing game opening up the ground game and turn his limited carries into quality production. As a result, the Gophers should fall behind early. Minnesota will have a difficult time establishing the ground game against a strong Texas Tech run defense and it should become a pass-heavy offense once they fall behind early. While Cupitio is a seasoned leader who has a good grasp of the offense, he doesn't have ideal natural ability, so he needs a productive running game to be truly effective. Look for him to struggle when he's forced to shoulder the bulk of the offensive load and the result will be some stalled drives that open the door for Texas Tech to extend its lead late.
Prediction: Red Raiders 31, Golden Gophers 17
