Hi everyone,
Just something I noticed when looking over the YTD results - now I went back from start of the season and these stats were just for the Saturdays - i did not include any Tues, Wed, Thurs, Friday games - i know there were some 20 plus point dogs.
Anyways results I found were facsinating - all were based on the FINAL line. Anyways there have been 70 games year to date where there was a dog of 20 or more points. And when I say 20 or more, i mean that - if it was 19.5 it didn't make this cut. You would think that if you played every dog of 20 or more points you would be getting paid right - WRONG!
Get this - YTD - dogs of 20+ pts. have a record of 27W-39L-4T = 40.9% winners - wow! Meaning if you took every fave of 20+ you'd have covered at a 59.1% rate! I found that fascinating that they covered so much over the last 7 weeks.
I'm not one who lives or dies by these "trends" but year to date, when a team has been favored by 20 or more, they've crushed the spread. Be interesting to see if we see things even out w/ more 20+ pt. dogs covering from here to end of year.
Tonight we have a 20+ point dog - Boise has been anywhere between 23.5 to 25 pt. favorite - making Hawaii a large dog. Can they stay w/in the number? Boise State is my favorite college football team - and I follow them closely. There defense has been tremendous this season. I have only played on them twice - and been wrong
- I laid 17 pts. with them against Bowling Green - only to see them build a 20-0 halftime lead, and win just 20-7 - this was at Boise. I did bit on the I believe +24 the last time they were a big fave on a week night - when they played LaTech. Well Boise won 38-3. As well as I know this team, it honestly is difficult which version shows up. My instinct here would be to take Hawaii with the 24 - but I've chosen to pass on this game, as i passed on last nights games as well.
GL this weekend - just wanted to post the interesting 20+ dog thing I found while doing some research the other night. Again, this doesn't mean 20+ dogs will cover at just over 40% rest of way, or faves will cover at near 60% rest of way. I simply found it facsinating that so far in a sample of 70 lines on Saturday games this year w/ 20+ spreads, the big faves covered so much. I don't remember them covering at this high a rate in the past.
My instincts are always to look at a dog getting anything over 3 tds. Like w/ the Boise game tonight - I would consider a 41-24 victory a nice victory for Boise, but they would't cover. I do believe Hawaii gives them a better game than LaTech did recently where Boise blew them out 38-3. What makes me nervous laying that many points is the turnover - and if a key injury happens. Nothing worse than needing a team to score tons of points, and having a QB go down or a star RB. I hope Boise rolls, but I'm passing.
GL rest of weekend - haven't finalized my plays yet, but will post what I play - enjoy the game tonight & this weekend.
---SAVE IT
Just something I noticed when looking over the YTD results - now I went back from start of the season and these stats were just for the Saturdays - i did not include any Tues, Wed, Thurs, Friday games - i know there were some 20 plus point dogs.
Anyways results I found were facsinating - all were based on the FINAL line. Anyways there have been 70 games year to date where there was a dog of 20 or more points. And when I say 20 or more, i mean that - if it was 19.5 it didn't make this cut. You would think that if you played every dog of 20 or more points you would be getting paid right - WRONG!
Get this - YTD - dogs of 20+ pts. have a record of 27W-39L-4T = 40.9% winners - wow! Meaning if you took every fave of 20+ you'd have covered at a 59.1% rate! I found that fascinating that they covered so much over the last 7 weeks.
I'm not one who lives or dies by these "trends" but year to date, when a team has been favored by 20 or more, they've crushed the spread. Be interesting to see if we see things even out w/ more 20+ pt. dogs covering from here to end of year.
Tonight we have a 20+ point dog - Boise has been anywhere between 23.5 to 25 pt. favorite - making Hawaii a large dog. Can they stay w/in the number? Boise State is my favorite college football team - and I follow them closely. There defense has been tremendous this season. I have only played on them twice - and been wrong
- I laid 17 pts. with them against Bowling Green - only to see them build a 20-0 halftime lead, and win just 20-7 - this was at Boise. I did bit on the I believe +24 the last time they were a big fave on a week night - when they played LaTech. Well Boise won 38-3. As well as I know this team, it honestly is difficult which version shows up. My instinct here would be to take Hawaii with the 24 - but I've chosen to pass on this game, as i passed on last nights games as well. GL this weekend - just wanted to post the interesting 20+ dog thing I found while doing some research the other night. Again, this doesn't mean 20+ dogs will cover at just over 40% rest of way, or faves will cover at near 60% rest of way. I simply found it facsinating that so far in a sample of 70 lines on Saturday games this year w/ 20+ spreads, the big faves covered so much. I don't remember them covering at this high a rate in the past.
My instincts are always to look at a dog getting anything over 3 tds. Like w/ the Boise game tonight - I would consider a 41-24 victory a nice victory for Boise, but they would't cover. I do believe Hawaii gives them a better game than LaTech did recently where Boise blew them out 38-3. What makes me nervous laying that many points is the turnover - and if a key injury happens. Nothing worse than needing a team to score tons of points, and having a QB go down or a star RB. I hope Boise rolls, but I'm passing.
GL rest of weekend - haven't finalized my plays yet, but will post what I play - enjoy the game tonight & this weekend.
---SAVE IT
