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TEXAS AT KANSAS STATE (-2)
Even if Texas had beaten Oklahoma last week, it would be easy to pick the Wildcats because of the matchups in this game. KSU?s loss to Colorado a couple weeks ago was misleading because KSU gave up 5 plays which totaled about 400 yards but CU?s other 50 plays barely averaged over 1 yard per play.
As we mentioned last week, Texas wants to run between the tackles and then play action to their great wide receivers. The problem for Texas is that they will have as much trouble running against the KSU defense as they did last week against OU. Forgetting a reverse that went for big yards, Texas only had 2 positive running plays all last week but had 11 negative plays. Against Colorado, KSU only gave up 5 positive running plays while stuffing CU?s running game to 21 negative plays. While stats do not always tell the story, KSU?s D-line is on par with OU?s D-line and should have no trouble holding Texas to few positive rushing plays.
And with no rushing game, it is hard to think that Texas will be able to match up with KSU?s secondary which may not be as talented as Oklahoma?s but certainly is as fast if not faster so Texas? receivers might have a hard time getting open. USC had some success on the crossing routes and middle outs against KSU but those are not routes that Texas prefers to run. KSU loves to blitz and Chris Simms is not the most mobile QB on earth so finding the time to execute the routes that KSU might be vulnerable to is doubtful. To be sure, Texas will complete some passes against KSU?s man to man coverage but KSU has a good chance of forcing several interceptions, fumbles, and bad throws.
The part of the Texas-OU game last week that was most surprising was OU?s ability to move the ball on the ground so well and Texas really did not stop OU as much as OU?s 4 turnovers allowed Texas to keep this game much closer than it should have been. The problem facing Texas this week is that although KSU?s receivers are not as good as those at OU, KSU?s offensive line is much better than OU?s line so even if Texas is tempted to try and force KSU?s quarterback El Roberson to beat them with his arm, KSU?s O line should be able to establish a running game which will force Texas safeties into run support and make Texas vulnerable to the play action passes that Roberson is good at. Another surprising thing in the Texas-OU game was the lack of Longhorn pass rush. OU?s Hybl had lots of time to throw and if not for some real bonehead decisions resulting in interceptions, Texas would have lost by at least 31 points. Texas has not faced an option attack this year and it will be hard for Texas to turn around and prepare to face the option after preparing -- probably since the summer -- to defend against OU?s spread offense. Texas is especially vulnerable to the simple slant pass;and Roberson might throw the slant as well as anybody in college because it is a power throw and not a touch throw which he sometimes has trouble with. As was true for OU going into last week?s game, the type of passes that KSU throws will vary quite a bit from game to game. After watching what not only OU did last week but what teams like Tulane and North Carolina did throwing the ball, KSU should be able to find routes over the course of the game that will work.
Not only does KSU have major advantages over Texas on both sides of the ball, but they also hold a big edge in special teams as well. While neither team has a great field goal kicker, KSU?s return games are far superior as are their kick coverages. Do not be surprised if the Wildcats block at least one kick in this game too. Emotionally, having to play a team like Kansas State is about the last thing that a team like Texas would want coming off a loss to Oklahoma. Playing in Manhattan is never easy for any road team so not only do we expect K State to win, we expect this game will be over at the half. Despite the loss to Colorado, we still believe that KSU is the second best team in the Big 12 (behind OU) and the timing of this game could not be worse for Texas. KSU wins this game by at least 24.
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IOWA STATE AT OKLAHOMA (-9)
We have broken down five (5) of Iowa State?s films and the Cyclones may have played as close to their potential as any team in the country this year. But the problem for ISU is that playing at their potential against the Sooners is likely to get them killed. Outside of Seneca Wallace at quarterback, ISU probably does not have even one other player who would start for OU anywhere on the field.
Iowa State does a great job of putting Wallace in position to make plays running and throwing. But what gives him the freedom to make those plays is that ISU has run the draw and the off tackle so well on everybody this year, which has forced defenses to stay closer to the center of the field and thus opens up the outside lanes for the bootleg passes as well as the bootleg runs. ISU?s offensive line is actually pretty average in the Big 12 and nowhere close to as talented as what OU faced last week against Texas. So we expect OU?s front four to totally dominate, which will allow OU?s linebackers to flow to wherever Wallace is and make plays.
We think OU learned something in playing against Missouri?s Brad Smith who athletically is very similar to Wallace. OU just sat back in soft zones, which allowed Smith to drop back and then take off either off the scramble or on designed off tackle countersweep plays. For the first time in years, OU sat back passively and Smith almost made them pay for it by having over 400 yards in total offense. By contrast, Nebraska blitzed Smith almost every play last week and held Smith to just over 150 yards in total offense. OU is better coached than anybody on defense in the country and thus we expect OU to blitz on almost every play and force Wallace to give up the ball. ISU?s passing game depends on the short passes like stops and slants and if OU is going to blitz as much as we expect, then OU?s secondary is going to have to come up and play a tight man to man since Wallace?s only chance of completing passes will be on the short routes before the blitz-rush gets to him. If OU is as aggressive as we expect them to be, ISU is in for a long game.
When OU has the ball, their running game depends on the draw as well as pitch plays to either side but their running game is secondary to the passing game. ISU has not faced any team with even one receiver who is as good as any of OU?s top 3 receivers so ISU will be forced to use safeties in pass coverage or to take out a safety in lieu of a cornerback to cover the wide receivers. Last week, ISU kept their safeties in the game against Texas Tech but Tech?s receivers are more possession type of receivers and thus ISU?s safeties? lack of speed did not come into play much. Last week alone, Texas Tech had 37 positive passing plays while ISU only forced 7 negative passing plays. That does not bode well for ISU. Not only did Tech throw the ball at win on ISU, but Tech also popped several draws which ISU looked confused at trying to stop. If we were coaching ISU?s defense this week, we would be tempted to rush four down linemen and ends but then use a safety at the middle linebacker position (to stop the draw) while dropping 6 corners and safeties into pass coverage and at least force OU into nickle and diming us to death. But the problem with that defense is that OU would never punt and ISU would still lose badly so ISU is going to have to try and make some plays defensively which will then allow OU to burn them for big plays.
Neither team?s kicker is going to win any awards but OU?s return and coverage teams are among the best in the nation and will provide OU with great field position in this game. Much like the KSU-Texas game, this game should be over at the half. If OU won by at least 31 points, we would not be shocked.
The Film Junkie is a former Big 12 player with close ties to his alma mater. Although now a professional man in his community, he still grades a lot of football film. Write to him at [edit out email].
TEXAS AT KANSAS STATE (-2)
Even if Texas had beaten Oklahoma last week, it would be easy to pick the Wildcats because of the matchups in this game. KSU?s loss to Colorado a couple weeks ago was misleading because KSU gave up 5 plays which totaled about 400 yards but CU?s other 50 plays barely averaged over 1 yard per play.
As we mentioned last week, Texas wants to run between the tackles and then play action to their great wide receivers. The problem for Texas is that they will have as much trouble running against the KSU defense as they did last week against OU. Forgetting a reverse that went for big yards, Texas only had 2 positive running plays all last week but had 11 negative plays. Against Colorado, KSU only gave up 5 positive running plays while stuffing CU?s running game to 21 negative plays. While stats do not always tell the story, KSU?s D-line is on par with OU?s D-line and should have no trouble holding Texas to few positive rushing plays.
And with no rushing game, it is hard to think that Texas will be able to match up with KSU?s secondary which may not be as talented as Oklahoma?s but certainly is as fast if not faster so Texas? receivers might have a hard time getting open. USC had some success on the crossing routes and middle outs against KSU but those are not routes that Texas prefers to run. KSU loves to blitz and Chris Simms is not the most mobile QB on earth so finding the time to execute the routes that KSU might be vulnerable to is doubtful. To be sure, Texas will complete some passes against KSU?s man to man coverage but KSU has a good chance of forcing several interceptions, fumbles, and bad throws.
The part of the Texas-OU game last week that was most surprising was OU?s ability to move the ball on the ground so well and Texas really did not stop OU as much as OU?s 4 turnovers allowed Texas to keep this game much closer than it should have been. The problem facing Texas this week is that although KSU?s receivers are not as good as those at OU, KSU?s offensive line is much better than OU?s line so even if Texas is tempted to try and force KSU?s quarterback El Roberson to beat them with his arm, KSU?s O line should be able to establish a running game which will force Texas safeties into run support and make Texas vulnerable to the play action passes that Roberson is good at. Another surprising thing in the Texas-OU game was the lack of Longhorn pass rush. OU?s Hybl had lots of time to throw and if not for some real bonehead decisions resulting in interceptions, Texas would have lost by at least 31 points. Texas has not faced an option attack this year and it will be hard for Texas to turn around and prepare to face the option after preparing -- probably since the summer -- to defend against OU?s spread offense. Texas is especially vulnerable to the simple slant pass;and Roberson might throw the slant as well as anybody in college because it is a power throw and not a touch throw which he sometimes has trouble with. As was true for OU going into last week?s game, the type of passes that KSU throws will vary quite a bit from game to game. After watching what not only OU did last week but what teams like Tulane and North Carolina did throwing the ball, KSU should be able to find routes over the course of the game that will work.
Not only does KSU have major advantages over Texas on both sides of the ball, but they also hold a big edge in special teams as well. While neither team has a great field goal kicker, KSU?s return games are far superior as are their kick coverages. Do not be surprised if the Wildcats block at least one kick in this game too. Emotionally, having to play a team like Kansas State is about the last thing that a team like Texas would want coming off a loss to Oklahoma. Playing in Manhattan is never easy for any road team so not only do we expect K State to win, we expect this game will be over at the half. Despite the loss to Colorado, we still believe that KSU is the second best team in the Big 12 (behind OU) and the timing of this game could not be worse for Texas. KSU wins this game by at least 24.
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IOWA STATE AT OKLAHOMA (-9)
We have broken down five (5) of Iowa State?s films and the Cyclones may have played as close to their potential as any team in the country this year. But the problem for ISU is that playing at their potential against the Sooners is likely to get them killed. Outside of Seneca Wallace at quarterback, ISU probably does not have even one other player who would start for OU anywhere on the field.
Iowa State does a great job of putting Wallace in position to make plays running and throwing. But what gives him the freedom to make those plays is that ISU has run the draw and the off tackle so well on everybody this year, which has forced defenses to stay closer to the center of the field and thus opens up the outside lanes for the bootleg passes as well as the bootleg runs. ISU?s offensive line is actually pretty average in the Big 12 and nowhere close to as talented as what OU faced last week against Texas. So we expect OU?s front four to totally dominate, which will allow OU?s linebackers to flow to wherever Wallace is and make plays.
We think OU learned something in playing against Missouri?s Brad Smith who athletically is very similar to Wallace. OU just sat back in soft zones, which allowed Smith to drop back and then take off either off the scramble or on designed off tackle countersweep plays. For the first time in years, OU sat back passively and Smith almost made them pay for it by having over 400 yards in total offense. By contrast, Nebraska blitzed Smith almost every play last week and held Smith to just over 150 yards in total offense. OU is better coached than anybody on defense in the country and thus we expect OU to blitz on almost every play and force Wallace to give up the ball. ISU?s passing game depends on the short passes like stops and slants and if OU is going to blitz as much as we expect, then OU?s secondary is going to have to come up and play a tight man to man since Wallace?s only chance of completing passes will be on the short routes before the blitz-rush gets to him. If OU is as aggressive as we expect them to be, ISU is in for a long game.
When OU has the ball, their running game depends on the draw as well as pitch plays to either side but their running game is secondary to the passing game. ISU has not faced any team with even one receiver who is as good as any of OU?s top 3 receivers so ISU will be forced to use safeties in pass coverage or to take out a safety in lieu of a cornerback to cover the wide receivers. Last week, ISU kept their safeties in the game against Texas Tech but Tech?s receivers are more possession type of receivers and thus ISU?s safeties? lack of speed did not come into play much. Last week alone, Texas Tech had 37 positive passing plays while ISU only forced 7 negative passing plays. That does not bode well for ISU. Not only did Tech throw the ball at win on ISU, but Tech also popped several draws which ISU looked confused at trying to stop. If we were coaching ISU?s defense this week, we would be tempted to rush four down linemen and ends but then use a safety at the middle linebacker position (to stop the draw) while dropping 6 corners and safeties into pass coverage and at least force OU into nickle and diming us to death. But the problem with that defense is that OU would never punt and ISU would still lose badly so ISU is going to have to try and make some plays defensively which will then allow OU to burn them for big plays.
Neither team?s kicker is going to win any awards but OU?s return and coverage teams are among the best in the nation and will provide OU with great field position in this game. Much like the KSU-Texas game, this game should be over at the half. If OU won by at least 31 points, we would not be shocked.
The Film Junkie is a former Big 12 player with close ties to his alma mater. Although now a professional man in his community, he still grades a lot of football film. Write to him at [edit out email].
