Why It Pays To Play The Dogs
I found this article on powerratings.com... I thought some might find it
interesting
We haven't been at this baseball thing too long, but we have noticed that
some situations are very attractive. In the 70's, there was a rock band
called Three Dog Night. No, they weren't baseball bettors. But we prefer Two
Dog Days.
In baseball, a 60% favorite would be considered a heavy favorite. Usually,
such a favorite is a winning team with its best pitcher on the mound against
a weaker opponent with a mediocre pitcher. Rarely will you see a favorite as
high as a 70% play. That's Pedro Martinez at home against a losing team with
a pitcher just up from AAA.
But for argument's sake, let's go back to the 60% plays. Consider the
position you are in if you bet exactly two 40% underdogs. The chances of you
losing both plays would be (.60 x .60 = .36) or 36 percent. That means that
you should expect that 64% of the time, you would win at least one of the
two bets. And if you win one of the two bets ... guess what? You are ahead
for the day.
Furthermore, you have a 16% chance of winning BOTH bets. On Sunday, 6/27,
our system liked two teams: Tampa Bay +127 and San Francisco +131. If either
team won, we would come out ahead. If they both won, we would be +258. Of
course, Tampa Bay lost, but the Giants came through and we won +31. We
expected to win and had a chance to mop up. Can't ask for anything better
than a Two Dog Day!
I found this article on powerratings.com... I thought some might find it
interesting
We haven't been at this baseball thing too long, but we have noticed that
some situations are very attractive. In the 70's, there was a rock band
called Three Dog Night. No, they weren't baseball bettors. But we prefer Two
Dog Days.
In baseball, a 60% favorite would be considered a heavy favorite. Usually,
such a favorite is a winning team with its best pitcher on the mound against
a weaker opponent with a mediocre pitcher. Rarely will you see a favorite as
high as a 70% play. That's Pedro Martinez at home against a losing team with
a pitcher just up from AAA.
But for argument's sake, let's go back to the 60% plays. Consider the
position you are in if you bet exactly two 40% underdogs. The chances of you
losing both plays would be (.60 x .60 = .36) or 36 percent. That means that
you should expect that 64% of the time, you would win at least one of the
two bets. And if you win one of the two bets ... guess what? You are ahead
for the day.
Furthermore, you have a 16% chance of winning BOTH bets. On Sunday, 6/27,
our system liked two teams: Tampa Bay +127 and San Francisco +131. If either
team won, we would come out ahead. If they both won, we would be +258. Of
course, Tampa Bay lost, but the Giants came through and we won +31. We
expected to win and had a chance to mop up. Can't ask for anything better
than a Two Dog Day!
