is the miami-ohio/ bowling green game fishy ?

[AR182]

i will play bg or not bet the game. but something seems fishy with this line to me. maybe somebody can explain this to me.

last game at home, miami-oh. was favored by 7 over bg.

the stats were pretty even in that game. miami gained 376 yds. & bg gained 343 yds. and both teams had 20 first downs.

in that game bg turned the ball over 4 times & gave miami a short field to work(miami had 4 scoring drives of 32 yds. or less) & miami capitalized on those to's and scored.

we all know that bg is unbeatable at home ( they are 13-0 su at home in their last 13 home games)

with a strong home field & the fact that they statiscally played a close game, i would have thought that the line would have been anywhere from pick to miami favored by 3. even maybe bg favored by 1 or 2 points. but instead miami is favored around a touchdown on the road vs. a strong home team. this seems strange to me.

i also read that in the last 20 same season college football rematches the team who lost the first game has played closer in the 2nd game 17 times.

can anybody give me a reasonable explanation of this line, other then telling me that miami is a public team ?

thanks for your replies

 

[gman2]

ar182:

agree with basically your whole post.

ive been pretty damn close projecting these mac lines all season and i -- no lie -- thought bowling green would be a 1.5-3 point favorite.

most people see the final score of 33-10 in the 1st meeting and they feel theyll roll em this time around

but like you said...bgsu in miamis redzone all 1st half. down 4 at halftime. josh harris and bgsu fumbled FIVE times that game.

even after all that, they still ran for 180 yds on miami and played them statistically even, and didnt run up stats in garbage time either. miami just made the most of their opportunities and bgsu couldnt hold onto the ball

combine it with bgsu's almost impeccable home record lately, as well as the fact that no road team has ever won the mac title game (even though there have been road favorites), i dont see how this aint bgsu or pass.

maybe im dead wrong, but i think falcons win the game

the line is puzzling. 7 in miami. now 7 in bowling green.

and ive seen many people with the "miami gonna roll em mentality"

i guess well see tomorrow

bg for me

 

[Nickelback]

I think the only explanation is that Vegas tried to move the line in order to gain money on both sides. . . amazing enough, people still find value with Miami laying 7 as around 59% are picking them.

See any other funny lines? Check out LSU laying only 2.5 after only losing 2 games ATS this entire season.

 

[TonyTT]

Guys,
Of interest in this one....northwestern Ohio has issued a "WINTER STORM WATCH" for Thurs night through Fri noon...
snow is expected to begin around noon Friday, with a "POTENTIAL" for about six inches.
gl,
TT

 

[gardenweasel]

well,

well,

gman got this ball rolling with an excellent post on basically the same tack as ar1`s post....

my feeling is that the linesmakers must have felt they had a pretty good feel for the pulse of the public on this one.....and as it turns out,they were probably right....around the net i mostly see pro-miami stuff.....w-line is showing 60.57 to 39.43 for miami.....

i was thinking along the same lines as the afforementioned guys ....that this line is high considering the home court history for bgsu,the revenge angle and the fact that, imo,i`m not entirely sure there`s that much difference btween the 2 clubs.... ......

i really think that miami,o is the glamour team of the mac.....with the pro prospect qb....the prior win over bgsu......and bgsu`s struggle at home with a pretty good toledo club...

the linesmaker saw miami as the public`s choice,set the line a little high and still got miami action....maybe a little more than they expected,although i haven`t noticed any 7.5`s out there....

maybe miami,oh rolls....but as gman said,and ar1 alluded to,why not take the shot with such a solid club with a pretty significant home field advantage,a full t.d. and revenge........

 

[AR182]

i agree, nickelback. the lsu/georgia game also looks fishy.

the only explanation that i could come up with is that in the last game, georgia outgained lsu by 126 yds. & missed 3 fg's.

 

[gardenweasel]

and

and

the game is in atlanta.....which you`d figure would be of some advantage to georgia.....

i`m not depraved enough to force a play on this one.....flip a coin....

 

[c20916]

With all the talk about the weather anyone see any play on the under it's at 58.5? I know when you have sloppy weather it will create to's which could lead to quick scores, but with the field conditions I think it slows down Miami's O and it will be a 28-21 type game :shrug:

 

[treynolds]

agree about the under. 58.5 is high in even if there wasnt bad weather.


GL

Tyler