Is there a "both ways" bet?

[snoozing]

I have reviewed 294 NCAAFB game scores in relationship to the spread and found the following.

20 games scores were less than 1 point and 33 games were less than 2 points of the spread. Assuming you played all 294 games both ways you would/could win 33 both ways foor a net of 66 units. You would split 261 games costing you a vig of 26.1 units: a net winn of 59.9 units!!

These are hard numbers not theory. The wins could probably be improved if you watched the line movement.

What am I missing??

thanks,
Bill

 

[ALWAYS PRAYEN]

what if you used the m/l would that help?

 

[TexasBC6]

I have been dabbling with the idea of middling lately (with little success). Interesting information you dug up though. Which 294 games were they? From last year? Would be interesting to track this for this season of NCAA foots. I think there are enough line movements that you can sometimes get a bargain here and there by betting both ways. Thanks for posting this info!

 

[NJO]

Middling games is something that, in my mind, should absolutely be tried if you have multiple outs and/or multiple points on which to win both ways.

Middling is primarily available on college games, given the downright wacky line moves you see just from Friday to Saturday, but it represents a chance to win big with minimal risk.

Without any hard math theory, I play this way around key numbers (7, 10, etc.) or when I have a chance on multiple numbers.

I wouldn't do it with, say 4.5 and 5.5 spreads, but if I got 4.5 and 6 or 4.5 and 7, I jump at that chance.

 

[dr. freeze]

66 - 26.1 = 39.9

not 59.9

Lots of money is made middling. You have to have lots of accounts and lots of money to start with....you pick key numbers as well.
This helps cut your losses. This is how the line shakers win their money. They bet, move the lines, and bet again.

 

[NJO]

freeze, your point is basically accurate, but I have hit some middles this year just having one offshore account and 2 locals, and not having a boatload of money. Nor am I moving lines to move things around key numbers.

On any given Saturday, you just need a book whose lines are stale and a book whose lines are fluid, and from there you can exploit, potentially, games in which you are otherwise not interested.

Key numbers also seem to be somewhat less important in college, given the prominence of missed kicks and 2-point conversions (odd finals are far more prevalent, it seems, in college FB).

 

[buckeye]

Make me smart here!
33 fell within 2 pts, but is it that easy to find 4 pt middles simultaneously in coll? You'd have to have 2 pts each way to be sure you won all 33 of those, correct?

I haven't looked at middles in coll fb. I've read that they are profitable if you get a big enough spread, I don't know any key #'s or what the min needs to be ( your numbers indicate something between 2 and 4 w/o regard to key numbers ). Anyone care to share their actual cutoff spreads?

My only experience with middling was "middling out" of 3 "no pay" books in the past, and this year I have been middling NFL sides since the last week of the preseason. The first regular season week was nirvana ( I hit 2/3 but there were two other games that hit that I didn't take advantage of due to bankroll restrictions - no complaints though as it funded my fb YEAR in 1 wk ), since then nothing. I plan on playing them all year, when I know the #'s favor me. Neteller makes doing this much easier and viable, it also helps to have ONE GREAT BOOK that 60% of the plays are best at.

Since the gambler/handicapper in me keeps wanting to get involved, I have taken to "shading" the middle so that the side I "lean to" results in a break-even or small win whereas the other side takes double/all of the JUICE LOSS if they cover. It has worked great so far in that I have still won a little even on the weeks that no middles hit, by winning the vast majority of my leans/shades and still cashing big on the 3 middles I hit. So a shading/gambling middler is bourne!

GL2U

 

[NJO]

If a game fell within 2 points, you really would only need a 2 point difference to win "free money."

Say X wins by 7, and you have X minus 7 and Y plus9, a perfect finish is to have X win by 8.

But, if X wins by 7 here, you push with X and win with Y.

Better yet, if X wins by 7 and you have X minus 6.5 and Y plus 7.5, you win both. So, in theory, you only need a 1 point line difference to win both sides.

Now, that said, I'd make a minus 6.5 and plus 7.5 play, I think, because it revolves around a key number 7. I wouldn't play, for example, someone minus 14.5 and someone else plus 15.5, just because 15 isn't as likely a finishing spread as 7.

I'd say blindly playing any middle where you can get 2.5 or 3 points, do it. If you have someone minus 10 and someone plus 12.5, you have 2 chances to clean up (11 and 12) and one to win free dough (10).

More chances arise as the line difference increases.

 

[dr. freeze]

many games are middled -- with a push/win too....don't forget those.....

Yeah, every number is hittable in CF -- but key numbers are more important.....

Like the idea of a fluid book and the stable local book .....

 

[dawgball]

I have a local that posts his lines up before all the games and usually leaves them up all day. Is that a dream or what?

------------------
Sic 'em
dawgball

 

[Never Caught Up]

I monitor live lines at lots of outs and do a fair amount of middling. Even though I watch over twenty outs, most of the time I deal with just a few.

Here are four Mad Jack sponsors that will provide you with a good number of middle opportunities. If I was not getting a line service these are probably the four I would focus on.

Gameday (Moves lines slowly)
Aces Gold (Moves lines quickly)
SportInterAction (line bias in favor of dogs)
Pinnacle (line bias both ways, but more in favor of favorites)

[This message has been edited by Never Caught Up (edited 10-04-2001).]

 

[Never Caught Up]

Adding one more Mad Jack sponsor that is worth watching. They move their lines fairly quickly and are worth watching.

sportbet.com

One more thing. None of these sites have software that is fast and dependable when the betting storms hit. Some are better than others. Since middle opportunities often come in the middle of high volume periods it takes patience when doing it online. I think they are all trying to improve, but they all have a long way to go to attain the "scalability" I would like to see.