Italian Open

[Stanley]

Outright play (total stake per play: 1.5pts)

Simon Khan to win 50/1 e.w. @ BetInternet, Bet365 and GolfingGods
Big price for a player who has avoided the two-week trip to China, finished in the top-10 in his last start and was a Tour winner last year. On that occasion he had to hold off Paul Casey to earn victory in the Celtic Manor Resort Wales Open and against anyone but Sergio Garcia in front of his home crowd, he could have won the Mallorca Classic in October as well. Sharing the lead with the young Spaniard and playing in the final group, it was a very tall order for him to win. But this field lacks any such intimidating and home players and he can certainly draw heart from his previous attempts at this title: he finished 5th in 2003 at Gardagolf and 13th last year on this course when in otherwise poor form.

 

[Stanley]

Further outright plays (total stake per play: 1.5 pts)

Gary Orr to finish in the top-five 16.5/1 @ Centrebet and SuperOdds
With players returning from the U.S. and from Asia, there is plenty of potential for a surprising-looking leaderboard this week, at least until this Tour settles down into its main European schedule. The players who have not been playing around the globe and focussing on this event should be at an advantage and one such player is Gary Orr. He lost his Tour Card last year and cannot get into the bigger events on Tour so has concentrated fully on preparing for the events that he can enter and it has reaped immediate rewards: in his two starts in 2005, he has finished 8th and 2nd. Having made the cut last year on this course, he should certainly performance much better this time around with renewed confidence.

Martin Maritz to finish in the top-five 20/1 @ GolfingGods
It has been a low start to the year for Maritz, but that still makes these odds about twice as high as they should be. He had a similar start to the season last year and still finished 9th on this course and was in the top-5 with one round to play. He had a similarly slow start to 2003 and finished 5th in this event. There are few who doubt his talent to be a significant player on this Tour, so well-rested and in an event in which he has played particularly well each year, he really should be at lower odds than this.

 

[phar lap]

Ian Garbutt 60/1 at Centrebet e.w.

Seems to be a fairly consistent player in decent form. Not an overly strong field, and its easy to see a second tier player winning this. Garbutt seems as likely as anyone and the price is fair enough.



72 hole matchup

Haeggman -114 vs Ricardo Gonzalez at Centrebet.

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS:

Mark Calcavecchia(14/1) e.w. @ Bet365

Emanuele Canonica(100/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods

Niclas Fasth(18/1) e.w. @ GolfingGods

Gary Orr(66/1) e.w. @ Bet365

Steve Webster(40/1) e.w. @ Bet365

Constantino Rocca(400/1) e.w. @ 5dimes

GL

 

[KMc10]

Outright fancies:

GRAEME MCDOWELL 1pt win @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

ANGEL CABRERA 1pt win @ 14/1 (Stan James)

SIMON KHAN 1pt ew @ 40/1 (Generally available)

 

[lostinamerica]

Saturday:

Emanuele Canonica(20/1)(1/5 for 1-2-3-4) @ Bet365

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Sunday:

Canonica(+106) over Siem @ 5dimes

Khan(-118) over Webster @ 5dimes

Cabrera(-130) over Havret @ 5dimes

Lomas(-115) over Fernandez-Castano @ 5dimes

GL

 

[Stanley]

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Khan 6th
Orr 10th
Maritz mc

Rather a frustrating finish! Khan had been in the top-5 all week and was 2nd-favourite heading into the final round, but really struggled on the greens. Nevertheless, a decent profit on the event looked assured when he was in 4th place when on the final hole ... but two balls into the water and 3-putt later, he had slipped out of the top-5 and no return on the event was secured! Even had two players in the top-10, but just as much profit as if they had all missed the cut. Given that finish by Khan, I wish they had!

European Tour ytd: 5-12; -7.43pts