It's a marathon, not a sprint . . .

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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NCAAYTD: 4-4 (-0.36*)
NFL YTD: 1-2 (-1.1*)


In recent years I've met my target of having immersed myself in football by the week of the PGA golf championship in order to get up to speed to start the season, but this year I confess to missing that target and investing almost no time in preparation before the lines came out on Monday during the first week of the NCAA season . . . For three straight years I have noted in my first football post of the season that money management is a way of life in my wagering, which this September translated into the need to ease myself into the season, and although it wasn't easy to be disciplined, I got it done.


On to this week's confusion . . .


Boise Stae(-8 & -7) over Wyoming (1.5*)
- - Twice before I've successfully spotted a Boise State swagger and climbed on the bandwagon at the right time, and I'm trusting my similar judgment again. In their prime, that team flips on a light switch other Rocky Mountain teams don't possess, and while they showcase it on the Blue Carpet, when at their best they feed off the swagger when they hit the road and know they are the better team. With extra days for Boise to prepare, and the benefit (to me) of a matchup against a Cowboys team I really followed initially in 2004, followed closely in 2005, and kept decent tabs on heading into 2006, I see this spot as an untasty sandwich filling between pulling out all the stops during an overtime loss on the East Coast (a deflating missed PAT loss at that) and Air Force on deck.
http://www.timesdispatch.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=RTD/MGArticle/RTD_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1149190536283


Baylor(+13') over Washington State (1*)

The Long Version:
- - The most entertaining game I saw last year that didn't involve national powers was Texas A&M hosting Baylor. Baylor took it to the revenge minded Aggies from start to finish, but red zone futility of the very highest order marked an ascending team going through growing pains, and the bad guys prevailed in overtime in that one. Going forward under HC Guy Morriss, only a mismatch against Texas last year (and maybe the Missouri game, which I don't remember) failed to showcase a team that hated taking no for an answer. It was amazing how constant was the theme of a reasonably sharp offense between the 20s ending with red zone futility that would drain bad teams, but lo and behold their defense would rise up and put the ball right back in their hands in great shape, and the whole painful process repeated itself until about crunch time . . .Starting this season, I was so tempted to take Baylor against TCU, but I was afraid that foe would prevail if the game had the rhythms of the 2005 season, and that is EXACTLY what transpired - almost scarily so. On to this week and what surely appears as a huge opportunity in a season of committment and promise. Although West Coast trips are always frought with danger, the host and their somewhat beleaguered coach are not likely to be real focused on Baylor in a scheduling sandwhich between a rout of former HC Dennis Erickson's Idaho Vandals and their Pac 10 opener, and potentially a further benefit lies in the game being played in awesome Seahawk Stadium, to inspire the visitor and diminish the home field advantages. I believe Baylor is 5-1 in the role of a pesky dog off a SU win, but putting points on the board looks like the fighting issue with this wager.

The Short Version:
- - I know what I know, and that team has a Big Heart.


Oregon(-4) over Oklahoma (1*)
- - A Holiday Bowl rematch is not so much a good homestand spot for the Ducks in the middle of a Fresno and ASU sandwich as it is a good spot for Oklahoma to be exposed . . . "It definitely feels good to get out there show everybody that we're all right, we're fine," (Okl QB Paul) Thompson said. "I think that the people scared were people on the outside of this team. Everyone within this organization felt real comfortable about where we were at . . . I just wanted to continue to prove, not just to myself, but to the team that we?re fine. Jump on my back and I?m going to carry you.?


More plays already in the hopper, but I'm slow with the write-ups.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Adding . . .

Marshall(+9') over Kansas State (1*)
- - I can't see Kansas State as a double digit favorite against a decent team at this point, but I guess -9' isn't that. I think a veteran and well-coached Marshall team, looking to rebound from the bizarre resignation of HC Bob Pruett in the spring of 2005 that tanked that season, and having experienced an explosion at Morgantown and steadied the ship then and thereafter, should come in ready to stick in this game from start to finish.

Florida(-3)(-120) over Tennessee (1*)
- - Tennessee was focused for weeks and months on the Cal game and it showed throughout . . . With the notable exception of their bowl game, I can't recall a time from last year when HC Urban Meyer thought prior to a game that his team was performing in a way that satisfied him. This year, Meyer sounds very comfortable with where his team is at, and has had them pointing toward this game for months . . . Tennessee has already landed a big one to make an early mark this year, while I believe a better Florida team is out to make their mark in this one, possessing a defense Cal could only dream about, as well as plenty of experience in big games and hostile environments. From an almost unheard number of marquee matchups between ranked teams this week, this is the game I feel strongest about.

Arizona State(-11) over Colorado (1*)
- - Missouri(-13') over New Mexico is right there on my "almost a full unit on a posted play" list, but then I look at this game and I have to say it looks to offer more value and promise as a mismatch. Colorado was reeling at the end of last year, and has started this season in the same direction, and comes in today off a huge rivalry game. Arizona State is out to prove they can get it done on the road, with what has been expected to be a markedly stouter defense (and more or less recovered from the USC debacle), and the talents and leadership of a quarterback that is drawing raves from his teammates and outside observers. Whether or not CU loads up and manages to make ASU one dimensional, IF ASU is there or on the cusp of a Top 25 team, this is an opportunity that is made to order for any team or program trying to notch some success on the road.

In about 45 minutes I'm off on my annual weekend road trip to Green Bay for a Packers game. With very little available to me in terms of access to internet info, madjack postings, television viewing, simply time, or other assessment opportunities from now until Sunday night, it puts me completely out of MY normal routine as far as timing on pulling the trigger on my plays, college and NFL, so I have to exercise some extra caution and not take any more "full unit" plunges with my leans on Missouri, Louisville, Kentucky, Fresno, etc.

Go Packers!

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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In due course (i.e., after midnight from the motel in Green Bay), I'll copy this post to the NFL forum:

Quickly and sloppily . . .

Baltimore(-11') over Oakland (1*)
- - QB Aaron Brooks behind an OL doing him no favors, and WR Randy Moss playing when he wants to play, moseying through the Raven's secondary in fear of his comeuppance, OAK is 3-13 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, and 8-28-1 ATS in their last 37 vs. AFC. Add a Jerry Porter distraction, and not a great spot for a west coast team off a late Monday night game with an early Sunday start on the east coast to rectify trends. Among the Raven's highlights last week were 3 penalties and no turnovers.I look for the formerv MVP QB to christen his new digs with a heady performance that further excites the locals.

Cincinnati(-10') over Cleveland (1*)
- - I detect HC Crennel knows the limitations of his team, and will have to give up something in trying to manage the game and hang in this one. I wish you good luck with that - I actually wish you rotten luck with that. I don't believe the Bengals will use their 2006 home opener as a stage for looking ahead to Pittsburgh. I say there is no way Cleveland matches Cinci's emotion in this one, and that spells trouble.

I've got Chicago(-7'), but I hope to go for a middle with Detroit(+10). Also looking at Miami, Jacksonville and NY Giants.

Go Packers!

GL
 
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