It's not too early to think about Week 2

[GM]

Well, not a great day for me. 3-4 on NFL + one losing CFL pick. And that was lucky, considering my internet connection went down just before 1pm kickoff. Had it not, I was going to bet two more teams, both of which lost. So I guess I had a little bit of luck going my way today.

Anyways....I've been thinking a lot about the day we had....and all those points. I think it's a total abberation. In 3 years of tracking it I have never had a week average this many PPG. This game tonight is going to bring the average way down by the looks of it, but heading into the game tonight we were at 51.1 PPG...and that includes a low-scoring Thursday nighter. The highest PPG I have in my records for a regular season week (13 games or more) since '99 is 48.7.

My guess is teams revert to the norm next week, with lots of emphasis put on improving D this week in practices all over the country. Checked out next week's lines, and there are some pretty high totals out there! Over-reaction to all the scoring today? I think so. I think there are some excellent Under opportunities on the card. Look at all those 40+'s....


12:00 pm
167 Miami Dolphins
168 Indianapolis Colts -2? 47

12:00 pm
169 Jacksonville Jaguars
170 Kansas City Chiefs -4? 41?

12:00 pm
171 Green Bay Packers -2? 45
172 New Orleans Saints

12:00 pm
175 Chicago Bears -120
176 Atlanta Falcons -3 +100 43

12:00 pm
177 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 -125 32?
178 Baltimore Ravens +105

12:00 pm
179 Detroit Lions
180 Carolina Panthers -4 36?

12:00 pm
181 Cincinnati Bengals
182 Cleveland Browns -5? 38

3:05 pm
185 New York Giants
186 St Louis Rams -13 47

3:05 pm
187 Arizona Cardinals +100
188 Seattle Seahawks -3 -120 40

3:15 pm
189 Buffalo Bills
190 Minnesota Vikings -5? 47

3:15 pm (CBS)
191 Denver Broncos
192 San Francisco 49ers -3? 44

Monday, September 16, 2002
8:05 pm (ABC)
197 Philadelphia Eagles -1? 45?
198 Washington Redskins


I also suspect there will be a run on the Unders and many of these juicy numbers won't be available by next weekend.

 

[GM]

Further thoughts

Further thoughts

Checked through my records for patterns relating to what happens in the week immediately after a very high scoring week.

Here are all of the weeks in the past 3 years in which there was 45 PPG or higher, and the PPG for the following week.

2001:
Week 5: 45.1 PPG --- Week 6: 36.5 PPG (5 Overs, 8 Unders)
Week 7: 47.3 PPG --- Week 8: 40.1 PPG (7 Overs, 6 Unders)

2000:
Week 2: 48.8 PPG --- Week 3: 36.0 PPG (7 Overs, 7 Unders)
Week 8: 47.4 PPG --- Week 9: 37.6 PPG (6 Overs, 8 Unders)
Week 13: 45.7 PPG --- Week 14: 39.9 PPG (5 Overs, 9 Unders)
Week 15: 45.7 PPG --- Week 16: 34.4 PPG (4 OVers, 11 Unders)

1999:
Week 1: 47.3 PPG --- Week 2: 39.3 PPG (5 Overs, 10 Unders)
Week 13: 47.3 PPG --- Week 14: 44.5 PPG (7 Overs, 7 Unders)

(In 1999 scoring was a little higher than in the past few years. In the final 6 weeks of the season, the lowest PPG recorded for a week was 42.2. So 47.3 PPG wasn't as "out of the norm" for Week 13/99...not as great a drop off in Week 14).

In the past 3 years....in the week after a "scoring explosion week", scoring has dropped by an average of 8.3 PPG the next week. And there's even a Week 1/Week 2 precedent in there that held to form. Hmmmmmmm....

 

[MrChristo]

There may be an over-reaction in ome of those lines, but a couple of games still look like great over plays....

Green Bay @ New Orleans over 45
Buff @ Minni over 47

Will be interesting to see the totals for the Texans and Dallas games next week....Both looking like good solid 'under' teams.

EDIT: Must have posted at the same time.....

Great info there, GM

 

[yyz]

There may be an over-reaction in ome of those lines, but a couple of games still look like great over plays....

Green Bay @ New Orleans over 45

I will be hitting the under on this one as soon as I can.

N.O. has a decent defense, and the Packers still suck in domes/on turf.

 

[no all]

likin tbay-3

 

[GM]

I have to agree with yyz and no all here. I think 45 is awfully high for GB/NO. And the TB line is just plain confusing. I saw a good chunk of the Ravens game today, and it looks like all the talk is true. They don't look like they have much to offer. TB on the other hand is coming off a tight, painful loss...good bounceback spot I think.

Philly & the Under are also looking very nice to me! Philly in a similar bounceback situation...played well but lost. Washington struggled at home to beat a pretty ordinary (and that's being kind) Arizona team. I still think the 'Skins are going to be exposed as an average team. If Philly loses this game they fall 2 games behind Washington. I think they are good enough that they WON'T allow that to happen.

(Edit to change "will" to "won't")

 

[no all]

what about cinncy over 38 I like it

 

[Ndfan]

just glancing at the lines and the one that sticks out is phil. -1.5. Seems like a solid bet and would guess the line would probably move to 3. What do you guys think. If you like phil would you bet it early

 

[MrChristo]

Seems I'm on my own with Norleans

Just a personal opinion.....I think the NO defense is in the same catagory as the Cleveland D.....HUGELY over-rated.

I guess time will tell :shrug: