Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
Preview:
The Jaguars are coming off a huge scare where they almost lost a home game against the worst team in football. The Jaguars continue to get by with their backup quarterback, helped in most part by their easy schedule. However, their defense has also been a major culprit of their superb record, as they have become one of the best teams at sacking the quarterback and creating turnovers. It is evident the passing game has suffered with Garrard behind center. The lacks of fear opposing defenses have in the Jaguars air attack has allowed them to stack the box and concentrate in stopping their power running game. The result has been an offense that is struggling to find its way into the end zone, and must rely on their defense to dominate. Will facing the worst defense in the AFC help matters? Will Del Rio try to keep his team motivated after playing a series of horrible teams? Will the Jaguars come in with more intensity than they did last week, and be able to avenge the Texans from killing the playoff chances last year?
The Texans can?t do anything right. During the entire season when they were supposed to win, they found ways to lose. Now that they are better off losing the rest of their games in order to win the Bush sweepstakes, they somehow manage a home victory against the Cardinals and their third string quarterback last week. The Texans put forth a solid offensive performance last week. They elected to allow Carr to call his own plays, while Wells ran with the intensity needed to secure a role on some team next year. Their defense still struggled to put the game away- even against a third string quarterback playing most of the game. One thing remains constant for the Texans- for some odd reason; they always play their best ball when playing against the Jaguars. Is there something to this trend, or is it a mere anomaly soon to reverse itself due to the psychological and fundamental variables that work against them?
Play: Jaguars -6
Comment:
Pros:
If this game is played to fundamental form, the Jaguars should walk away with a decisive victory. However, last week would attest that the Jaguars have become vulnerable to an emotional letdown by nearly losing to the Niners last week. With that said, I think that was a good thing for the Jaguars to experience coming into this game. That game in my opinion decreased the probability of the Jaguars taking the Texans lightly. Del Rio was not happy after the game, and more than likely let his team have it. Add to the mix that the Texans killed the Jaguars playoff hopes last year, and the probability of the Jaguars coming in with intensity looks good. Now that I feel comfortable that an emotional letdown is more than likely not in the cards in this game, I could now proceed to fundamentally breaking down this game.
The Jaguars have found a formable 1-2 punch in Taylor and Jones. Both backs provide physicality and power that is hard for some teams to deal with. Their ability to break tackles and make people miss, allows them to grind out yards and keep the ball in their possession. However, since Leftwich got injured, teams have been stacking the box more, making the running game less effective. With that said, the Texans have consistently proven that even when they stack the box, they struggle in defending the run. They are also the worst tackling team in football, which makes me think these two big bruisers will be extremely effective on Saturday. Garrard also provides a third running option that the Jaguars didn?t have in the past. He has done an excellent job tucking the ball and running when he sees nothing in the passing game. This added dimension has been a major factor in the three wins Garrard has been apart of for the Jaguars. This solid running game should take pressure off the passing game, and allow for many favorable one on one match ups for his receivers. The Texans defensive backs are very undersized, and lack the depth needed to consistently cover the three and four receiver looks. They were constantly beat against the Cardinals receivers last week, and if it weren?t for Warner getting injured, the game could have gotten out of hand. The Jaguars have four big receivers that could take advantage of the lack of size the Texans provide with their back four. What the Texans have been doing well of late has been attacking the edges and collapsing the pocket. However, when the pocket collapses, Garrard showed shown excellent poise and ability to step in and run the ball. Expect this to take away the Texans greatest asset on defense. Expect a well balanced attack from the Jaguars. A favorable match up for their running game will allow pressure to be taken off Garrard. It will also allow for a lot of one on one matches downfield for the big Jaguars receivers.
The Texans allowed Carr to call his plays last week. The result was a more methodical game plan that utilized a lot of quick outs and screens that offset the lack of pressure his line provided him. Expect Carr to have a more difficult time implementing this system this week. The Jaguars have physical corners that press on the line. This type of coverage will make screens and quick outs less effective and vulnerable to the interception. This will force Carr into longer drop sets, making him vulnerable to one of the best teams getting after the quarterback. Expect the Jaguars to utilize a lot of blitzes that take advantage of the horrific Texans line. This is the strategy that has plagued Carr?s career, and made the Texans the worst passing offense in the game. The Texans also got a solid performance out of their big running back Wells last week. He ran with great intensity, and was able to capitalize on the poor tackling the Cardinals provided. Also expect his style of running to struggle this week, as he is up against one of the biggest front fours in the league, and one of the best tackling front seven?s in football. Expect the Jaguars to use their two tackles to collapse the A gap, forcing the big Wells to run to the outside to make things happen. Lacking the speed necessary to be effective outside, Wells should have a tough time making things happen. If the Texans can?t find a running game early, or if the Jaguars take a big early lead, things will get ugly. The Jaguars are one of the best defenses when defending a one dimensional passing attack, while the Texans are horrific when becoming one dimensional. This fact also makes a backdoor cover less likely. The bottom line is to not expect the same output out of the Texans offense as last week. Their style of offense simply is overmatched by this Jaguars defense, especially if they abandon the run early.
Cons:
The Jaguars offense has gone downhill since Lefwich?s injury. Their inability to put a lot of points on the board makes a high road spread a bit risky. They also seemed to be going through the motions last week against an inferior team. If this trend continues, the Texans will have a good chance of covering this line and even pulling out an upset. The Texans are a much improved team the last month. They could be actually riding a four game winning streak right now, and have always played well against the Jaguars. The Texans offense seems much more comfortable when Carr is calling the plays. They work much quicker and seem to get into rhythms that are hard to defend. They might be onto something here.
Conclusion:
Expect last weeks lackluster performance, the motivation of clinching a playoff spot, and the motivation of avenging the Texans for last years upset should be enough for the Jaguars to get up for this game and play to form. If this game is played to form, they have too many advantages on both offense and defense to make me think the Texans only lose by a one possession score. Expect the Jaguars to send a message on Saturday- a message for the other playoff teams to take the Jaguars seriously.
Preview:
The Jaguars are coming off a huge scare where they almost lost a home game against the worst team in football. The Jaguars continue to get by with their backup quarterback, helped in most part by their easy schedule. However, their defense has also been a major culprit of their superb record, as they have become one of the best teams at sacking the quarterback and creating turnovers. It is evident the passing game has suffered with Garrard behind center. The lacks of fear opposing defenses have in the Jaguars air attack has allowed them to stack the box and concentrate in stopping their power running game. The result has been an offense that is struggling to find its way into the end zone, and must rely on their defense to dominate. Will facing the worst defense in the AFC help matters? Will Del Rio try to keep his team motivated after playing a series of horrible teams? Will the Jaguars come in with more intensity than they did last week, and be able to avenge the Texans from killing the playoff chances last year?
The Texans can?t do anything right. During the entire season when they were supposed to win, they found ways to lose. Now that they are better off losing the rest of their games in order to win the Bush sweepstakes, they somehow manage a home victory against the Cardinals and their third string quarterback last week. The Texans put forth a solid offensive performance last week. They elected to allow Carr to call his own plays, while Wells ran with the intensity needed to secure a role on some team next year. Their defense still struggled to put the game away- even against a third string quarterback playing most of the game. One thing remains constant for the Texans- for some odd reason; they always play their best ball when playing against the Jaguars. Is there something to this trend, or is it a mere anomaly soon to reverse itself due to the psychological and fundamental variables that work against them?
Play: Jaguars -6
Comment:
Pros:
If this game is played to fundamental form, the Jaguars should walk away with a decisive victory. However, last week would attest that the Jaguars have become vulnerable to an emotional letdown by nearly losing to the Niners last week. With that said, I think that was a good thing for the Jaguars to experience coming into this game. That game in my opinion decreased the probability of the Jaguars taking the Texans lightly. Del Rio was not happy after the game, and more than likely let his team have it. Add to the mix that the Texans killed the Jaguars playoff hopes last year, and the probability of the Jaguars coming in with intensity looks good. Now that I feel comfortable that an emotional letdown is more than likely not in the cards in this game, I could now proceed to fundamentally breaking down this game.
The Jaguars have found a formable 1-2 punch in Taylor and Jones. Both backs provide physicality and power that is hard for some teams to deal with. Their ability to break tackles and make people miss, allows them to grind out yards and keep the ball in their possession. However, since Leftwich got injured, teams have been stacking the box more, making the running game less effective. With that said, the Texans have consistently proven that even when they stack the box, they struggle in defending the run. They are also the worst tackling team in football, which makes me think these two big bruisers will be extremely effective on Saturday. Garrard also provides a third running option that the Jaguars didn?t have in the past. He has done an excellent job tucking the ball and running when he sees nothing in the passing game. This added dimension has been a major factor in the three wins Garrard has been apart of for the Jaguars. This solid running game should take pressure off the passing game, and allow for many favorable one on one match ups for his receivers. The Texans defensive backs are very undersized, and lack the depth needed to consistently cover the three and four receiver looks. They were constantly beat against the Cardinals receivers last week, and if it weren?t for Warner getting injured, the game could have gotten out of hand. The Jaguars have four big receivers that could take advantage of the lack of size the Texans provide with their back four. What the Texans have been doing well of late has been attacking the edges and collapsing the pocket. However, when the pocket collapses, Garrard showed shown excellent poise and ability to step in and run the ball. Expect this to take away the Texans greatest asset on defense. Expect a well balanced attack from the Jaguars. A favorable match up for their running game will allow pressure to be taken off Garrard. It will also allow for a lot of one on one matches downfield for the big Jaguars receivers.
The Texans allowed Carr to call his plays last week. The result was a more methodical game plan that utilized a lot of quick outs and screens that offset the lack of pressure his line provided him. Expect Carr to have a more difficult time implementing this system this week. The Jaguars have physical corners that press on the line. This type of coverage will make screens and quick outs less effective and vulnerable to the interception. This will force Carr into longer drop sets, making him vulnerable to one of the best teams getting after the quarterback. Expect the Jaguars to utilize a lot of blitzes that take advantage of the horrific Texans line. This is the strategy that has plagued Carr?s career, and made the Texans the worst passing offense in the game. The Texans also got a solid performance out of their big running back Wells last week. He ran with great intensity, and was able to capitalize on the poor tackling the Cardinals provided. Also expect his style of running to struggle this week, as he is up against one of the biggest front fours in the league, and one of the best tackling front seven?s in football. Expect the Jaguars to use their two tackles to collapse the A gap, forcing the big Wells to run to the outside to make things happen. Lacking the speed necessary to be effective outside, Wells should have a tough time making things happen. If the Texans can?t find a running game early, or if the Jaguars take a big early lead, things will get ugly. The Jaguars are one of the best defenses when defending a one dimensional passing attack, while the Texans are horrific when becoming one dimensional. This fact also makes a backdoor cover less likely. The bottom line is to not expect the same output out of the Texans offense as last week. Their style of offense simply is overmatched by this Jaguars defense, especially if they abandon the run early.
Cons:
The Jaguars offense has gone downhill since Lefwich?s injury. Their inability to put a lot of points on the board makes a high road spread a bit risky. They also seemed to be going through the motions last week against an inferior team. If this trend continues, the Texans will have a good chance of covering this line and even pulling out an upset. The Texans are a much improved team the last month. They could be actually riding a four game winning streak right now, and have always played well against the Jaguars. The Texans offense seems much more comfortable when Carr is calling the plays. They work much quicker and seem to get into rhythms that are hard to defend. They might be onto something here.
Conclusion:
Expect last weeks lackluster performance, the motivation of clinching a playoff spot, and the motivation of avenging the Texans for last years upset should be enough for the Jaguars to get up for this game and play to form. If this game is played to form, they have too many advantages on both offense and defense to make me think the Texans only lose by a one possession score. Expect the Jaguars to send a message on Saturday- a message for the other playoff teams to take the Jaguars seriously.
